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Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

businessinsider.com

31–40 of 188 posts

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#31
post #7

A couple of interesting statistics about stocks that are easily available are related to how many people are shorting it (ie, someone borrows a share, sells it, and makes a profit if they can re-buy it at a later date to close the short position). In the case of TSLA the stock, as of Apr 15, almost 31 million shares were lent out to short sellers ("sold short"). That is out of 72 million shares on the market ("float"…

The most amazing thing about your post is that 95% of your post went right over my head. And I consider myself a fairly intelligent person. :P (There's probably some interesting commentary in there somewhere about the complexity of financial markets and how it is probably bad for society to have a vast portion of our economic growth riding on something most people don't get.)

I'd be happy to try to explain anything. This doesn't even get into the little "unhedged" word's complexity :)

That's when you start getting into options and derivatives, which are (theoretically) priced on a 5 variable differential equation called "Black-Scholes" (intuitively, you are just buying the right to buy or sell a stock for a particular amount at or by a certain date in the future).

You could construct a trade using those where you would make a smaller amount of money if the price fell, but your losses would be capped above a certain amount. In investing terms, you could buy out of the money calls to hedge your short position, and then your loss would be capped at (price you sold - max(price you have to re-buy at, price you can call your options at plus the option premium). I'll stop there before I get too far out of my league :)

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#32
post #15

A good article to help understand the massive afterhours movement: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/08/autos-tesla-idUSL2... High-Level Summary: There was a ton of short-selling interest on TSLA (due to expectations of a big earnings miss). Almost 27% of the 115mm shares outstanding are currently being borrowed by short sellers. TSLA has more short interest by percentage than 98% of US stocks. Everyone was real…

This might be a stupid question, but as a Tesla stock owner, and (becoming more apparent ever day) naive investor, how do you find out this information and/or digest it so well? I'm mainly a google finance guy and had no idea so much of the stock was being shorted.

I am also a novice investor, but the # of shares that are short are actually listed on the details pages of many online stock sites, for example: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TSLA+Key+Statistics

Shares Short (as of Apr 15, 2013): 30.70M

Shares Outstanding: 114.52M

EDIT - I guess this is more relevant:

Short % of Float (as of Apr 15, 2013)3: 49.20%

EDIT #2: Congrats on the gains today! :-)

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#33
post #28
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This might be a stupid question, but as a Tesla stock owner, and (becoming more apparent ever day) naive investor, how do you find out this information and/or digest it so well? I'm mainly a google finance guy and had no idea so much of the stock was being shorted.

The cynical answer is that you specialize in post-hoc analysis like this. Predictions, after all, can be wrong. :) This is true in general obviously, but investing specifically is filled with explanations like this that make sense only in hindsight.

I completely agree in most cases, however the Reuters article I linked was written earlier this week. Some market conditions necessitate a big swing in prices -- though guessing which direction prices will swing can be tricky.

If you wanted de-risk your position, you could set up an option straddle or just sell your shares before the announcement and then buy them again next week.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#34
post #29

The last several months in Silicon Valley I do not remember the last time I went outside for more than 5 minutes and not seen a Tesla. I noticed about a week ago I stopped caring, much as I do not especially remark on noticing a Honda or a Ford. That's a good sign, though likely very geographically localized.

Me to my wife when driving in SV: Do you know Tesla cars? They are amazing!

My wife: No, I don't know about them.

Me: Let me show you one (in two seconds) here is one. Look how beautiful is that!

To find a Tesla in Silicon Valley you just need to turn your head up!

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#36
post #15

A good article to help understand the massive afterhours movement: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/08/autos-tesla-idUSL2... High-Level Summary: There was a ton of short-selling interest on TSLA (due to expectations of a big earnings miss). Almost 27% of the 115mm shares outstanding are currently being borrowed by short sellers. TSLA has more short interest by percentage than 98% of US stocks. Everyone was real…

This might be a stupid question, but as a Tesla stock owner, and (becoming more apparent ever day) naive investor, how do you find out this information and/or digest it so well? I'm mainly a google finance guy and had no idea so much of the stock was being shorted.

Forgive the unsolicited advice, but I think that's the wrong question. First ask yourself what you'd do with that information. Then think long and hard about indexing your money.

Read up on portfolio theory and you will see that it's incredibly difficult (some say impossible) to beat the risk adjusted return of the market (at least not on purpose). It turns out if you are not in many stocks - 40+ (the exact number depends on who you ask), then you are taking more risk than you are being compensated for.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#37
post #15

A good article to help understand the massive afterhours movement: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/08/autos-tesla-idUSL2... High-Level Summary: There was a ton of short-selling interest on TSLA (due to expectations of a big earnings miss). Almost 27% of the 115mm shares outstanding are currently being borrowed by short sellers. TSLA has more short interest by percentage than 98% of US stocks. Everyone was real…

This might be a stupid question, but as a Tesla stock owner, and (becoming more apparent ever day) naive investor, how do you find out this information and/or digest it so well? I'm mainly a google finance guy and had no idea so much of the stock was being shorted.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TSLA+Key+Statistics

Usually data from there is just parsed from the variety of forms that a public company has to file with the SEC, all/most of which are available to the public via a tool they have called EDGAR. Here's Tesla's filings: http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&#3...

EDIT: also, congratulations :) ask a real professional, but if you're tempted to sell be aware your holding period and of the tax difference between long and short term capital gains. Also, if you want to sell tomorrow and re-buy, be aware of wash sale rules.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#38

A good article to help understand the massive afterhours movement: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/08/autos-tesla-idUSL2... High-Level Summary: There was a ton of short-selling interest on TSLA (due to expectations of a big earnings miss). Almost 27% of the 115mm shares outstanding are currently being borrowed by short sellers. TSLA has more short interest by percentage than 98% of US stocks. Everyone was real…

TSLA options are also super weird and sketchy; around the expiration of the long-dated calls in January each year, there seems to be some magical push to drive the stock price lower for 1-2 days; then after the expiration, when I've been pushed out of the money, the price rebounds substantially. I gave up on TSLA options and am sticking to being long the stock.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#39
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything but engine sound. I will miss the deep, throaty growl of a large V-8.

In the future, I suspect we'll see aftermarket outfitters touting externally facing audio equipment to imitate the sounds produced by high-powered combustion engines. I also suspect the majority of them will be sold to teenagers with fairly under-powered vehicles ;)

This already exists. The Nissan Leaf emits some cool sci-fi sounds by default, and I heard a dealer mention it can be replaced with a large selection of sounds by specialized auto shops.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#40
post #19

If you've been in Silicon Valley for the past 6 months, this was obviously going to happen -- virtually everyone I know who could afford virtually any production supercar, and cares about cars, has or wants a Tesla. Not an R8, not a GTR, not a California, not a Panamera, not an M3, but a Tesla. As they ramp up their production (I think it's down to a few months wait), The only rich people (who own cars) not getting T…

If you've been in Omaha for the past 6 months, you more than likely do not know what a Tesla is. Be wary of the echo chamber.
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