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Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

theatlantic.com

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Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#31

Post by tsotha »

gyardley wrote: post #20
mseebach wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was certainly very convenient for the germans to have some takers for their cheap bonds, but the fact remains that nobody forced the peripheral countries to live beyond their means and to refrain from implementing necessary reforms.

Nor did anyone force countries like Germany to share a common currency with them. I've never really gotten why one country would want to share only a currency with another country, while leaving their social and economic policies independent. But now that that's happened, the combination gets to stand or fall as a whole.

The plan was "harmonization" of tax and spending policies. It's not really any secret the people actually running Europe were trying to cobble a United States of Europe together, first by sharing a currency and then by moving all the decision making to Brussels over time.

Of course Italians and Spaniards don't have any desire to become Germans, and vice-versa. The currency part was easy - the "harmonization" part will take generations if it happens at all.

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#33

Post by tsotha »

auctiontheory wrote: post #29
lolcraft wrote: post #25

I don't know why journalists, when writing about economics, invariably pick the least adequate people to be interviewed. Some time ago, there was a feature about unemployment for college graduates in the US... which talked about a woman with a dance degree. Now it's about a fucking cani [1] whose major accomplishment in life is pasting some rubber and metal together, earning 1200 undeserved euros a month. Before that…

What, pray tell, is a "chav"?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1478863/Cheltenham-la...

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#34

Post by tsotha »

eksith wrote: post #2

The labor disparity between senior workers and young ones will lead to a lot more trouble. Irrational people take out their frustrations on the easiest target; irrational young people even more so. I'm not sure if the article's doom and gloom is actually reflected in reality though. Most people are averse to letting society collapse (especially when they've had a history of it standing upright and stable for a long t…

>Spain doesn't "just" need stimulus, it needs well guided and allocated stimulus or it will accomplish nothing.

The last thing Spain needs is "stimulus". What they need to do is fix the labor market so it's possible to fire people. When employers can't fire people they only hire as an absolute last resort. That means companies can't exploit growth opportunities as easily and it means employers are unlikely to gamble on people who don't have a solid resume, i.e. young people.

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#35

Post by ashleyblackmore »

Tangaroa wrote: post #7

Long-term unemployment is happening in the US too: http://blogs.cfr.org/kahn/2013/04/17/our-long-term-unemploym... Unemployment in the US is near 15% including U6, or near 23% if using pre-1994 counting methods: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-chart... (On that subject, I'm looking for work in the north SF bay area, Sonoma/Marin region)

> (On that subject, I'm looking for work in the north SF bay area, Sonoma/Marin region)

Why not put a CV/homepage link in your profile?

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#36

Post by dpe82 »

graeme wrote: post #27
mseebach wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was certainly very convenient for the germans to have some takers for their cheap bonds, but the fact remains that nobody forced the peripheral countries to live beyond their means and to refrain from implementing necessary reforms.

The difference is that in the past, the peripheral countries were able to live beyond their means without such drastic consequences. Too much debt? Devalue the peseta and drachma. Exports increase, imports decrease, unemployment adjusts. Lenders knows that they must charge higher interest rates to those countries. That process can't happen anymore. So the same behavior that was mildly damaging before suddenly became…

Some recognized the problem, but they were largely shouted down. The single currency has always been a political initiative, not an economic one.

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#38

Post by dpe82 »

tsotha wrote: post #31
gyardley wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nor did anyone force countries like Germany to share a common currency with them. I've never really gotten why one country would want to share only a currency with another country, while leaving their social and economic policies independent. But now that that's happened, the combination gets to stand or fall as a whole.

The plan was "harmonization" of tax and spending policies. It's not really any secret the people actually running Europe were trying to cobble a United States of Europe together, first by sharing a currency and then by moving all the decision making to Brussels over time. Of course Italians and Spaniards don't have any desire to become Germans, and vice-versa. The currency part was easy - the "harmonization" part wil…

Indeed. It's hard to "harmonize" countries or regions that don't speak the same language. Workers can't easily move from country to country to take advantage of job opportunities (and thus spread culture through direct interaction), and there's little shared media.

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#39

Post by robryan »

skylan_q wrote: post #30
robryan wrote: post #17

What the is the precedent for austerity? What countries have used it successfully to get out of recession and improve unemployment?

What the is the precedent for austerity? To have enough money left behind to pay the bills. What countries have used it successfully to get out of recession and improve unemployment? This worked in the (now seemingly ancient) past. Governments were a much smaller portion of the economy and taxes were much lower to begin with. These days, up to 50% of people can be employed by the government. When governments get that…

How does declaring bankruptcy help creating more jobs? (Honest Question) Would seem to me that it would been even harder to get credit flowing once all your previous creditors have been wiped out.

From an admittedly fairly uninformed position it appears to me that cutting spending is only going to further erode businesses positions and tax revenue, leading to an even worse position.

Re: Spain Is Beyond Doomed: Unemployment Charts

#40

Post by futhey »

jwilliams wrote: post #9
fixxer wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spain needs to breed. Their median age is ~41 (US at about 37... ). Not as bad as Japan, but very ominous when you've got a society built on pensions. Ireland is about 35 and it shows (little pale kiddies running around everywhere). That is the only one of the PIIGS I'm betting on.

Spain's youth unemployment is astronomical (55%+). Young people with useful skills are increasing choosing to emigrate -- With lots of encouragement too. e.g. Germany is actively recruiting Spanish Engineers to fill labour gaps there. Without structural changes, no amount of youth is going to dig them out.

Yes, and in recent years Spaniards have been immigrating to South America to take incredible cuts in pay to do jobs (Often regardless of legal status) that require few of the qualifications, if any, they had earned in Spain.
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