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SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

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Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#31

Post by petcat »

throw234259 wrote: post #18
PowerElectronix wrote: post #10

He could just have said "lasting forever and ever". It's ram chips, the bottom of the barrel of semi manufacturing. If you get high prices for long enough, everyone is gonna jump into the market.

> everyone is gonna jump into the market Whom exactly? Korea and Taiwan are already saturated. EU may take 5 yearrs just to approve plans formnew factory. US is interested in super fast super duper AIG, ddr5 is way too boring. Only competitor is mainlaind china!

> EU may take 5 years just to approve plans for a new factory.

Who is going to build a memory chip fab in Europe? Qimonda collapsed into insolvency 20+ years ago and Infineon has long since abandoned the market.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#32

Post by alex43578 »

marcosscriven wrote: post #25

What are the limiting factors here? Clearly it’s the fabrication of RAM/HBM chips. But if the margin is so high, why can’t other fabs like CPU fabs be used? I assume they’re not as CPU prices are going down. Or are they radically different and not easily reconfigured?

Very different processes. Even setting up a new CPU design in a fab that already makes CPU dies is months of validation, for context.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#33

Post by boredhedgehog »

vlucas wrote: post #17
alephnerd wrote: post #15

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN. The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms, and 12-24 month backlogs for delivering bare metal. All those require memory. Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the…

Same. There is huge, real demand for memory and storage everywhere you look. New capacity takes 3-5 years to come online. Every vendor has completely sold out capacity and is backlogged on top of that. This 5-year estimate is actually pretty realistic to me. I think we are stuck with high prices on these components for at least the next 3 years, minimum.

> New capacity takes 3-5 years to come online.

Why should that be set in stone? Surely there are corners that can be cut if there's so much profit on the table.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#34

Post by alex43578 »

fakedang wrote: post #24

Memory chip shortage lasting *until China floods the market with their cheaper but rigged chips. FTFY. At the rate China's moving on this, it won't be long till they get a stranglehold on the consumer chip market.

What’s a “rigged” chip in this context?

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#35

Post by reducesuffering »

alephnerd wrote: post #15

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN. The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms, and 12-24 month backlogs for delivering bare metal. All those require memory. Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the…

You've been here awhile, this forum is default incredibly skeptical and critical, especially when it comes to AI. It has been to their predictive detriment for many years now. AI bubble conviction is over 2 years now, $300b NVDA profits since. AI tool adoption has completely encompassed any tech savvy office and isn't going anywhere. Broken records.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#36

Post by well_ackshually »

Aloha wrote: post #22
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SK hynix CEO compelled by CEO obligations to paint a rosy and sustainable picture of memory chip demand.

I dont think he's wrong. Dell is making moves to introduce server grade hardware without ECC memory. There is plenty of DDR5, its not even very expensive, its DDR5-ECC where the prices go stratospheric.

>There is plenty of DDR5, its not even very expensive,

My 2x16GB of DDR5-6000 that I bought for 250€ is now 650€. 2x32GB that cost 200€ last July now goes for close to 1250€. Even my shitty ass DDR4-3000 sticks from over ten years ago would be selling for close to 300€.

DDR5 is horribly expensive, the only variants that are not as expensive are low frequencies or low amounts.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#37

Post by nashashmi »

Given the possibility of setting up new memory fab plants takes 10 years, given that data companies are spending money on power plants based on power consumption forecasts, but are not spending on memory fab plants, I take it that data companies are seeing the current memory makers as sufficient for their needs.

Meaning if the avg consumer is going to buy memory, they are going to have to fork a whole lot more money than they did before, because they will be paying the price of profit generating data companies.

The next phase of improvements will have to be in consumer software to be more memory efficient. Gone are the days of electron apps and other memory intensive systems of programming./

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#38

Post by seanmcdirmid »

Aloha wrote: post #22
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SK hynix CEO compelled by CEO obligations to paint a rosy and sustainable picture of memory chip demand.

I dont think he's wrong. Dell is making moves to introduce server grade hardware without ECC memory. There is plenty of DDR5, its not even very expensive, its DDR5-ECC where the prices go stratospheric.

DDR-5 is still expensive, at least until China can get more production online.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#39

Post by well_ackshually »

alex43578 wrote: post #34
fakedang wrote: post #24

Memory chip shortage lasting *until China floods the market with their cheaper but rigged chips. FTFY. At the rate China's moving on this, it won't be long till they get a stranglehold on the consumer chip market.

What’s a “rigged” chip in this context?

It's chips that work just as well, except that they make the original poster sad because china bad.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#40

Post by mhaberl »

throw234259 wrote: post #18
PowerElectronix wrote: post #10

He could just have said "lasting forever and ever". It's ram chips, the bottom of the barrel of semi manufacturing. If you get high prices for long enough, everyone is gonna jump into the market.

> everyone is gonna jump into the market Whom exactly? Korea and Taiwan are already saturated. EU may take 5 yearrs just to approve plans formnew factory. US is interested in super fast super duper AIG, ddr5 is way too boring. Only competitor is mainlaind china!

DDR5??

dude, DDR6 was planned for 2027 in 07/2025 [1] No one is going to build factories in 2026 to produce DDR5.

[1] https://www.techpowerup.com/339178/ddr6-memory-arrives-in-20...

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