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OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

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Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#31

Post by jrflo »

anthonypasq wrote: post #3

Continued hardware improvements really make it hard for me to believe token prices will not continue to plummet.

This may just be a classic case of Jevons paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

In short, better hardware will drive down token cost in the near-term, but will drive up the demand for tokens as it gets cheap enough for other sectors to start to use it heavily.

It comes from steam engines where economists originally thought that coal demand would plummet with more efficient engines, but it actually just meant that we found more uses for steam engines.

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#33

Post by kilroy123 »

jrflo wrote: post #31
anthonypasq wrote: post #3

Continued hardware improvements really make it hard for me to believe token prices will not continue to plummet.

This may just be a classic case of Jevons paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox In short, better hardware will drive down token cost in the near-term, but will drive up the demand for tokens as it gets cheap enough for other sectors to start to use it heavily. It comes from steam engines where economists originally thought that coal demand would plummet with more efficient engines, but it actually jus…

This is exactly what I see happening now.

Codex keeps doing these usage resets. What do I do? Burn even more tokens than ever before. I know I'm not the only one.

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#35

Post by msh »

xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #21
jimmySixDOF wrote: post #11

I love how now you have to consider the possible s** posting motivation behind analysis of a trillion dollar industry being conducted at a world-class level by a bunch of ex Reddit and 4Chan adjacent mods -- it's one of the best stories in AI that SemiAnalysis is not cut from the same cloth as Gartner McKinsey et al

s** posting? sex posting?

shit posting

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#36

Post by [deleted] »

xyzsparetimexyz wrote: post #21
jimmySixDOF wrote: post #11

I love how now you have to consider the possible s** posting motivation behind analysis of a trillion dollar industry being conducted at a world-class level by a bunch of ex Reddit and 4Chan adjacent mods -- it's one of the best stories in AI that SemiAnalysis is not cut from the same cloth as Gartner McKinsey et al

s** posting? sex posting?

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#37

Post by 0xbadcafebee »

Story says they're power limited. That's half-true. Actually they're water-limited. To generate power, you need water. To cool chips, you need water. If you try to use less water on one side, you need more water on the other side (it's physics ya'll, making and using energy generates heat which requires dissipation). The world's freshwater is diminishing while also being consumed at an alarming rate. The future AI oligarchs are whoever controls the most water.

The other side of the conversation is the idea that large models in DCs on custom silicon is the future. Maybe for enterprise? But consumers will eventually (10 yrs) have affordable hardware designed to run crazy-good local models (more RAM + higher bandwidth). That will take pressure off of datacenters, but also reduce AI profits, and move that money to consumer chip/device makers. Apple is once again the biggest winner. Nvidia consumer chips might get cheaper, but nerfed, to encourage datacenter use where they make more money. I'm hoping AMD can stop being terrible at software so that when we finally have their better hardware we can actually use it.

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#38

Post by airspresso »

simianwords wrote: post #32

How can OpenAI mass produce this chip at scale more economically than Nvidia which has experience in the supply chain and scale efficiencies to do it efficiently?

By leveraging the experience Broadcom has in this area. Still remains to be seen how that goes when they want to scale production.

Re: OpenAI Jalapeño: Better than Nvidia Blackwell

#40

Post by anthonypasq »

jrflo wrote: post #31
anthonypasq wrote: post #3

Continued hardware improvements really make it hard for me to believe token prices will not continue to plummet.

This may just be a classic case of Jevons paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox In short, better hardware will drive down token cost in the near-term, but will drive up the demand for tokens as it gets cheap enough for other sectors to start to use it heavily. It comes from steam engines where economists originally thought that coal demand would plummet with more efficient engines, but it actually jus…

the total cost spent on tokens may go up, but i just cant imagine per token costs going up
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