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Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

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Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#31

Post by tim333 »

selivanovp wrote: post #18
amelius wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a numbers game and I don't know if the numbers are in favor of Ukraine anymore, given this lack of defense weapons.

Numbers have never been in Ukraine's favor. With provided funds and tech by EU and US to mass produce long range weapons Ukraine managed to shorten the gap somewhat, but they're still losing, and they're a "zombie" country that is still afloat just because tens of billions are pumped into their economy and military every year.

It depends a bit how you calculate your numbers. Ukraine vs Russia, Russia wins. Democratic world that doesn't want dictators invading it vs Russia, democracy wins.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#32

Post by greedo »

epolanski wrote: post #22
greedo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PAC-3 MSE can take down Iskanders. Not a very favorable exchange rate when you fire 2-3 per Iskander, but still doable. If NATO was fighting Russia, launch aircraft (and airbases) would be prime targets. Ukraine fights the way it does because of very limited funds and resources.

Not really, interception success rate fell from 37% to 7% as Iskanders got upgraded.

Ukraine had to become extremely parsimonious with their Patriot use as supplied dwindled to a fraction. In many cases Ukraine simply chose not to engage unless the Kinzal/Iskanders were optimally detected and attacking a significant target.

And the upgrades really weren't much except adding decoys that had always been an option with Iskander.

Now that worldwide inventories of PAC3-MSE are almost non-existent, Russia will push its MIRBM attacks over the next year or more. Ukraine really doesn't have many options other than to continuing their drone offensive against deep targets in Russia.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#33

Post by greedo »

tim333 wrote: post #27
epolanski wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really, interception success rate fell from 37% to 7% as Iskanders got upgraded.

Software upgrades too - just make them fly a somewhat random path.

Ballistic missiles have limited maneuverability, and what little they do is not very significant for a system like Patriot PAC3-MSE.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#34

Post by greedo »

epolanski wrote: post #2

Both this event as well as the Iranian campaign expose the low stock piles that most NATO countries are facing. But it's also exposing the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare. A single patriot missile, a single one, costs around $ 4 million, and its the only weapon that may intercept missiles that cost 1.5 up to 40 times less. Even when taking the major Russian ballistic missiles like the Kh101, the Iskander and Kali…

KH101 is a cruise missile, not ballistic.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#35

Post by tim333 »

greedo wrote: post #33
tim333 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Software upgrades too - just make them fly a somewhat random path.

Ballistic missiles have limited maneuverability, and what little they do is not very significant for a system like Patriot PAC3-MSE.

>During flight it can maneuver at different altitudes and trajectories and can pull up to 20 to 30 G to evade anti-ballistic missiles. https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/9K720_Iskander

>Russia’s Iskander-M ‘Game-Changer’ Dodges Patriot in Final Seconds, Rewriting Ukraine’s Missile-Defence War https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/russia-iskander-m-termina...

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