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The AI Demand Bubble

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Re: The AI Demand Bubble

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is your ad hominem attack any better?

I don’t see how “This guy has no experience in the field he is actively commentating on. None of his predictions have come to pass.” is an ad hominem. The critiques are directly relevant to the subject matter.

Would you expect someone in the AI industry to predict the collapse of the AI industry?

I'm sure there weren't a ton of bankers predicting the mortgage collapse of 2008 but I, a young programmer of mortgage software could see something was weird (but didn't realize that it wasn't the norm).

Re: The AI Demand Bubble

#32

This guy has zero zip nada null AI background. He is a videogame reviewer and PR guy. He is a pure influencer feeding on the AI backlash he helped to create. He has been predicting a crash for how many years now? And while I can totally see Anthropic and OpenAI going through some things on the way to post-IPO FMV, those things do not include AI going away. It truly doesn't matter whether closed source Frontier lab mo…

[deleted]

Re: The AI Demand Bubble

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t see how “This guy has no experience in the field he is actively commentating on. None of his predictions have come to pass.” is an ad hominem. The critiques are directly relevant to the subject matter.

Would you expect someone in the AI industry to predict the collapse of the AI industry? I'm sure there weren't a ton of bankers predicting the mortgage collapse of 2008 but I, a young programmer of mortgage software could see something was weird (but didn't realize that it wasn't the norm).

curious, what weird things did you see?

Re: The AI Demand Bubble

#34
post #2

This is a bit of a doomer article, but quite honestly, 200 billion dollars a year on a 30 billion dollar a year business that is growing does not really sound as bad as the author makes it out to be, especially when that business consists of growth startups that are currently primarily concerned with completely automating your current revenue stream. The obvious way to recoup spend is to grow, rugpull by cranking up…

> The actual risk that the author does not even broach upon for investors... the thing that will actually torpedo this massive investment are the open source open weight chinese models that commoditize the entire endeavor.

Not in this specific article but Ed Zitron has been talking about open models quite a lot

Re: The AI Demand Bubble

#35

This guy has zero zip nada null AI background. He is a videogame reviewer and PR guy. He is a pure influencer feeding on the AI backlash he helped to create. He has been predicting a crash for how many years now? And while I can totally see Anthropic and OpenAI going through some things on the way to post-IPO FMV, those things do not include AI going away. It truly doesn't matter whether closed source Frontier lab mo…

Ed Zitron is enjoyably mouthy and rude about AI and AI people, but it’s a bit of a stretch to suggest that someone most people have never heard of helped create the AI backlash. He is just putting it into words.

You know what created the AI backlash as well as anyone, and it is: AI and AI people.

If e/acc voices were not so abrasively, obtrusively YOLO about their technology, if their entire take on what they earn millions to do was not so easily reduced to “yeah it sucks that your job will go away, learn AI I guess LOLz” then there would be far less to have a backlash against.

Being lectured about the future by people who do not have a fucking business plan for how they will repay a trillion dollars and who might actually crash the economy does tend to grate on the nerves of the reality-based. Being told again and again that we will be ruled over by two firms that ultimately amount to the corporate equivalent of trust fund kids, that is annoying.

If you want to convince people otherwise, find an analyst who is not churning out AI slop.

As to the “predicting it for years” thing, the first correct-with-specifics predictions of the subprime crisis were published in 2004, by a pretty fringe outlet (karmabanque) and its author, Max Keiser. I remember not being shocked at all when it finally happened, or being shocked at LIBOR rigging. Because Max Keiser presented his reasoning on his crazy radio show, and told his listeners what signs to look out for.

If someone is right for the right, well-informed reasons and presents that reasoning, it doesn’t always matter all that much if their background is unconventional. They tend to be dismissed, and they were back then. “People will always need houses” is what we were told, as if that was enough to ward off massive structural problems.

Re: The AI Demand Bubble

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t see how “This guy has no experience in the field he is actively commentating on. None of his predictions have come to pass.” is an ad hominem. The critiques are directly relevant to the subject matter.

Would you expect someone in the AI industry to predict the collapse of the AI industry? I'm sure there weren't a ton of bankers predicting the mortgage collapse of 2008 but I, a young programmer of mortgage software could see something was weird (but didn't realize that it wasn't the norm).

[flagged]

Re: The AI Demand Bubble

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His history of predictions about LLMs is not great and he generally seems ideologically committed to pretending they're almost useless and teetering on the edge of collapse. For example, this article claims: "Every single story you’ve read about the “incredible growth” of these cloud platforms is an embarrassing misread of three companies that are misleading investors that will more than likely be forced in the next…

He said: > I am hypothesizing that for OpenAI to survive for longer than two years, it will have to (in no particular order): And listed various things like a technological breakthrough or more fundraising. I would bet he’s right that they’ll fundraise by the end of the year if they can’t IPO and pass the bag to retail investors. What the AI bulls don’t seem to understand is that AI could be a great technological ach…

For the record, I agree that the generative AI industry might collapse. But I think Ed Zitron is ideologically committed to this belief in a way that is not a reflection of the evidence, and doesn't seem to update this belief based on new evidence.

>What the AI bulls don’t seem to understand is that AI could be a great technological achievement AND an impending economic collapse

This doesn't seem to be Ed Zitron's position, though. He is always minimizing the use cases of AI, and seems to think virtually all of the demand is due to the technology industry manufacturing consent.

Re: The AI Demand Bubble

#38
post #7
post #2

This is a bit of a doomer article, but quite honestly, 200 billion dollars a year on a 30 billion dollar a year business that is growing does not really sound as bad as the author makes it out to be, especially when that business consists of growth startups that are currently primarily concerned with completely automating your current revenue stream. The obvious way to recoup spend is to grow, rugpull by cranking up…

unironically sama is probably one of the most honest players here after all, he is burning money and if/when they have achieved AGI they will ask it in how to make money. its a different investor incentive story than trying to monetize into profitability right now that is indeed doomed to fail against china. Having no idea but a vision achieved is rrquired to be met to have those returns is actually the honest part h…

If Altman seriously believes his role is to create AGI then ask how to make the company profitable, he should get removed from his position of leadership asap. That’s crazy territory.

It’s a grift, “AGI will save us” is the same as Musk’s “Mars colony”, it’s not supposed to ever happen, it’s supposed to be a goal post they ever move further

Re: The AI Demand Bubble

#39

This guy has zero zip nada null AI background. He is a videogame reviewer and PR guy. He is a pure influencer feeding on the AI backlash he helped to create. He has been predicting a crash for how many years now? And while I can totally see Anthropic and OpenAI going through some things on the way to post-IPO FMV, those things do not include AI going away. It truly doesn't matter whether closed source Frontier lab mo…

Yeah, it's not like there are AI-focused hedge funds crashing and burning right now.

Re: The AI Demand Bubble

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t see how “This guy has no experience in the field he is actively commentating on. None of his predictions have come to pass.” is an ad hominem. The critiques are directly relevant to the subject matter.

Would you expect someone in the AI industry to predict the collapse of the AI industry? I'm sure there weren't a ton of bankers predicting the mortgage collapse of 2008 but I, a young programmer of mortgage software could see something was weird (but didn't realize that it wasn't the norm).

If it does come to pass, the AI version of the Big Short will be wildly entertaining
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