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Kelly Criterion Simulator

kellysimulator.com

31–33 of 33 posts

Re: Kelly Criterion Simulator

#31

In case the author is here: What's the difference between "win probability of win" and "odds", please? The seem the same thing to me. And also, what are "decimal" vs. "american" odds, please? Thanks.

Decimal odds give the total payout (including stake) if you win a bet of 1. So if I place a bet of $1 at decimal odds of 2.5 and it pays out I receive 1 x 2.5 = 2.5. So payout = stake * odds.

American odds (also sometimes called “moneyline” odds) have two presentations.

- If the odds quoted are positive it indicates the net payout (excluding stake) from a bet of $100 dollars. So I place a bet of 1 dollar at moneyline odds of 150 it pays me 1.5 plus my original stake back. 150/100 * 1 + 1 = 2.5. So payout = stake + (odds/100 * stake) . A positive moneyline odds number means an underdog.

- If the odds quoted are negative it’s how much you need to bet to win $100 (excluding stake). So if I place $1 at moneyline odds of -150 and it pays out I get 1 * 100/150 + 1 =1.667. Therefore payout = stake + (100/abs(odds) * stake). A negative moneyline odds number indicates a favourite. The higher the absolute value, the bigger the favourite as far as the house is concerned.

Re: Kelly Criterion Simulator

#33
post #20

This woulda been helpful for Leo and the 3% of Korea that got liquidated

The Situational Awareness situation was the reason I wanted people to be aware of the Kelly Criterion and submitted this link.

Excellent work! The chart is gorgeous.

I added a Kelly simulator to my own personal stock tracker after seeing this

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