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The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

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Re: The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

#31
The last section on sex differences is interesting. It explains boys having greater variation in ability than girls by boys having only one X chromosome (XY) while girls have two (XX).

This would be a neat theory, if girls somehow used an average of the two X's... which seems compellingly logical, though the (current) theory is that only one X is used, chosen at random. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barr_body

Re: The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

#32

I'm fascinated by the theory of increased variability in males being caused by brain-related genes in the X chromosome. I'd highly recommend checking out pages 18 and 19.

While an interesting hypothesis, it seems unlikely: one copy of each x-chromosome is deactivated in each cell, and this is done randomly in development.

This is one of the reasons women have superior colour vision to men so it's likely enough. Some women have two different types of red cones while men have a maximum of one. There are many other sex linked diseases as well. Unless an allele is fully dominant if it's on the X chromosome men will display hreater variance.

Re: The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

#33

Ah hello law of small numbers, survivorship bias and fundamental attribution error - we meet again. If you understand these 3 biases - you'll wonder what kind of world you have actually been living in all this time. I'm going to repost a my comment about this very concept as related to startups from a while ago because I believe HNers will appreciate it - it's from an article called "Startup School And Survivor Bias"…

>Of the startups that didn't pivot - they either skipped the pivot thanks to previous side projects/companies or already had traction - and all they had to do was lever up and ride.

Like twitter, right?

Re: The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

#34
post #33

Ah hello law of small numbers, survivorship bias and fundamental attribution error - we meet again. If you understand these 3 biases - you'll wonder what kind of world you have actually been living in all this time. I'm going to repost a my comment about this very concept as related to startups from a while ago because I believe HNers will appreciate it - it's from an article called "Startup School And Survivor Bias"…

>Of the startups that didn't pivot - they either skipped the pivot thanks to previous side projects/companies or already had traction - and all they had to do was lever up and ride. Like twitter, right?

Twitter began as Odeo, which was a failed podcasting startup.

Re: The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

#35

Ah hello law of small numbers, survivorship bias and fundamental attribution error - we meet again. If you understand these 3 biases - you'll wonder what kind of world you have actually been living in all this time. I'm going to repost a my comment about this very concept as related to startups from a while ago because I believe HNers will appreciate it - it's from an article called "Startup School And Survivor Bias"…

Well, apparently Pivoting is like the Monty Hall Problem, so this may be worth a shot

Except that there are 100 doors and only one gets opened. Switching still has the highest expected value, but the chance of a win after the switch is still very small.

Re: The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

#36
quote: "Obviously, they assumed that variability decreased proportionally to the number of coins and not to its square root."

Why is this so important? The fact, that the variability increases with smaller sample size was ignored completely by the protagonists in the provided examples. Realizing weather this inverse effect is linear or not doesn't seem to be the main problem in peoples intuition.

disclaimer: I have poor understanding of statistics.

Re: The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

#37
post #31

The last section on sex differences is interesting. It explains boys having greater variation in ability than girls by boys having only one X chromosome (XY) while girls have two (XX). This would be a neat theory, if girls somehow used an average of the two X's... which seems compellingly logical, though the (current) theory is that only one X is used, chosen at random. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barr_body

I don't understand how that fits with the existence of X-linked-recessive diseases. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_disorder#X-linked_rece...)

These seem to be well-known cases in which you really do get a phenotype that's a function of both X chromosomes.

Re: The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

#38
post #3

Absolutely totally true. Ignore the laws of statistics at your own peril. Knowledge of statistics is the best investment one can make with one's time. A/B testing is the tip of the iceberg - a simple practical application, which can be exploited much better with statistics. Learn about statistical distributions - Bernouilli, Binomial, Normal, Poisson and Hypergeometric at least, then Chi distribution to grasp real te…

If someone doesn't know much about statistics what is your recommended source to learn from?

I've found help on stats.stackexchange.com when I was stuck on a stats problem for work.

Re: The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

#39
post #22

Excellent. Reminds me of the lecture describing that "the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function" http://youtu.be/F-QA2rkpBSY

Thanks for sharing this! Albert Bartlett does a wonderful job explaining the consequences of sustained growth rates. I find overpopulation to be one of the greatest concerns that we are not adequately dealing with. Albert's bacteria in a bottle analogy made me think of Elon Musk's attempt to bring human life to other planets.. will we not just be expanding our time of growth? Maybe we should start choosing a way to r…

If you think overpopulation is a real problem, then you have no knowledge of statistics[1], which makes me doubt everything else you said. We'll probably have problem with underpopulation, not overpopulation.

[1]http://xkcd.com/605/

Re: The Most Dangerous Equation [pdf]

#40
post #37
post #31

The last section on sex differences is interesting. It explains boys having greater variation in ability than girls by boys having only one X chromosome (XY) while girls have two (XX). This would be a neat theory, if girls somehow used an average of the two X's... which seems compellingly logical, though the (current) theory is that only one X is used, chosen at random. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barr_body

I don't understand how that fits with the existence of X-linked-recessive diseases. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_disorder#X-linked_rece... ) These seem to be well-known cases in which you really do get a phenotype that's a function of both X chromosomes.

You're right, it doesn't fit. Now I recall that rates of red-green colour blindness are exactly predicted by whether one or both must be defective (7% for boys, .49% for girls). Both being active but the defective version having no effect would explain the evidence, but doesn't fit the Barr body theory... it would need to know which one to choose (and it wouldn't be "random").
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