Why is the fear wondering if stocks going up immensely and then a little down important for HN? Since when are we talking stock prices here ?
Because there is no more tech industry. Only gambling.
US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia
31–40 of 49 posts
Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
Elaborate. Are banks not repackaging and reselling debt tied to those valuations? I see that as a collapse risk
> Elaborate. In the dotcom era the demand was far lower than the projections, and orders of magnitude less than what they were building out to. The "products" like catsdotcom and dogsdotcom had massive investments with 0 real-world demand. Even hardware stuff like fiber rollouts were severely overestimated, and led to very cheap dark fiber for a while, because the demand simply wasn't there. We know now, with hindsig…
> The dotcom bubble and this thing are nothing alike. Any of the large "products" can (and some probably will) fail, but the tech behind it is like the Internet. It will only grow, and be ubiquitous in a decade.
You dismantled your entire argument with this closing sentence. I do not doubt that gen AI is here to stay in some form, but that is not what we’re discussing here. What you’re showing as weak proof of demand is billions in revenue that pale in front of hundreds of billions, soon to be a trillion, in yearly capex spending. That is not regular spending for a tech buildout unless you are somehow certain that the tech in question can radically upend the global economy. Right now that is very much still wishful thinking. Even the dotcom Internet buildout cost a fraction of this current frenzy, and yet the demand justifying our current situation is moot at best. Or you want me to really accept that these companies will generate trillion/s in revenue within 5 years to justify the absolutely insane level of investment?
Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Elaborate. In the dotcom era the demand was far lower than the projections, and orders of magnitude less than what they were building out to. The "products" like catsdotcom and dogsdotcom had massive investments with 0 real-world demand. Even hardware stuff like fiber rollouts were severely overestimated, and led to very cheap dark fiber for a while, because the demand simply wasn't there. We know now, with hindsig…
> The dotcom bubble and this thing are nothing alike. Any of the large "products" can (and some probably will) fail, but the tech behind it is like the Internet. It will only grow, and be ubiquitous in a decade. You dismantled your entire argument with this closing sentence. I do not doubt that gen AI is here to stay in some form, but that is not what we’re discussing here. What you’re showing as weak proof of demand…
Yeah, no. How much is invested doesn't matter. Look at who is investing. Every big tech firm (literally, each and every one of them). They'll make the money back, one way or another. Unless you're willing to claim that the entire tech sector goes poof tomorrow. They won't. They'll still be here 10-20-50 years, and they'll make their trillions back.
Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
The money isn’t in the market, when you buy shares the money goes to the seller.
Money in this context is just proxy for value. You have exchanged cash for an equal value of stock. After this either could go up or down in value as the market determines. Sometimes the market doesn't like one kind of cash even and that value can reduce. On the other hand, if everyone is invested into a certain kind of cash then it's unlikely that cash would ever lose its value. Stocks have to work the same way fund…
[dead]
Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia
#35People often compare this to the dot-com bubble but today's leaders are generating very big cash flows => a valuation reset and a business collapse are two very different things
Elaborate. Are banks not repackaging and reselling debt tied to those valuations? I see that as a collapse risk
[dead]
Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia
#36[flagged]
Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia
#37Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia
#38What even is a point on looking on stock charts which are detached from fundamentals of companies? Just casino. Usually numbers go up, sometimes they go down. It has no effect on your life. It has no effect on companies either. When your market share value is 10USD or 1000USD does not change if you are profitable or not.
>It has no effect on your life. Public Pensions, private company pensions and the investments of public organisations and academic institutions are all tied up in these investments. If they get it wrong, the impact on people is enormous. In todays financial news, the pension fund of a telecoms firm lost £300m in an investment in a utility company. https://archive.ph/CmA59
Gambling with pensions in a casino? What could go wrong?
Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia
#39Why is the fear wondering if stocks going up immensely and then a little down important for HN? Since when are we talking stock prices here ?
Lately HN has been just a mirror of the anthropic blog page. Any crap they publish appears instantly in HN
Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The dotcom bubble and this thing are nothing alike. Any of the large "products" can (and some probably will) fail, but the tech behind it is like the Internet. It will only grow, and be ubiquitous in a decade. You dismantled your entire argument with this closing sentence. I do not doubt that gen AI is here to stay in some form, but that is not what we’re discussing here. What you’re showing as weak proof of demand…
Yeah, no. How much is invested doesn't matter. Look at who is investing. Every big tech firm (literally, each and every one of them). They'll make the money back, one way or another. Unless you're willing to claim that the entire tech sector goes poof tomorrow. They won't. They'll still be here 10-20-50 years, and they'll make their trillions back.
I'm sure someone said that about Yahoo and eBay during the dotcom crash