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Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

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Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#31

Post by ggm »

rwmj wrote: post #29
ggm wrote: post #20

Worldwide chip pricing and it's effects on the overall economy are fascinating. I expected by now somebody with a gen -2 class VLSI plant would swing into action and make for 2/3 the cost of the majors, and clean up in volume as the market absorbs the price shock. But no, instead it suits everyone in the pipeline to whine about it, but mark up prices instead. I am guessing the other side of this, the price drops will…

Even on previous gen nodes it takes a year or two to bring a chip to full production.

Thats the kind of process issue I hadn't understood. I guess the dynamics here don't make operating a "2nd gen behind" system to make memory economic in the good times, and so nobody is ready to ramp up to meet market shortages in the short term.

EU is paying to build out "lo fi" chips for car and other needs: They decided the impact on domestic industry of supply chain logistics to TSMC was bad. A lot of people are shouting "why aren't they doing extreme UV 1nm chip design" when the decision was pretty simple: its possible to source the machines, it's probably faster to get to high yield, the exposure to supply chain risk is real, the return is hopefully high in strategic terms, you can improve density as a follow-on.

No matter what ASML is doing well.

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#32

Post by LeoPanthera »

lexicality wrote: post #10
michalpleban wrote: post #5

The headline made me fear that I will need to shell out a few more bucks for 4164 DRAM chips, but fortunately this does not seem to be the case. DDR3 is not "retro", for chrissakes.

It was introduced barely 20 years ago. By that rationale the PS3 is a retro console

The PS3 is a retro console.

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#33

Post by brennanpeterson »

ggm wrote: post #20

Worldwide chip pricing and it's effects on the overall economy are fascinating. I expected by now somebody with a gen -2 class VLSI plant would swing into action and make for 2/3 the cost of the majors, and clean up in volume as the market absorbs the price shock. But no, instead it suits everyone in the pipeline to whine about it, but mark up prices instead. I am guessing the other side of this, the price drops will…

Well, you are working from all sorts of misguided assumptions about how you convert, the yield, the efficiency, the shared capital, and history.

Old gen logic barely exists, and won't convert. The tools are wrong so it wouldn't yield. And there isnt the expertise (on tool recipes and integration) to do it.

Historically, memory is a sawtooth business. But history isn't a great guide here: 10 years ago, a new plant added meaningful capacity, as it came with a shrink of about 30%. Today....it doesn't. So it take huge capital to add a very small amount of capacity.

You can dream that things like 3d dram and 4f cells will help, but they are unlikely to offer enough with demand.

And finally, everyone running a dram plant has lived through these capacity boom bust cycles and the consequently layoffs and pay cuts. I suspect they are happy to take money this time. I would be in their place.

I do hope we see a new dram or dram-like designs. And that there are more efficient dedicated ai processors. And that models themselves become more memory efficient. But I don't really believe any of these come soon.

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#34

Post by [deleted] »

HerbManic wrote: post #21
michalpleban wrote: post #5

The headline made me fear that I will need to shell out a few more bucks for 4164 DRAM chips, but fortunately this does not seem to be the case. DDR3 is not "retro", for chrissakes.

I was about to say. DDR 2/3 I can still see many use cases for that stuff in modern-ish tech. I am currently looking for some EDO sticks for a really well preserved IBM Aptiva I found on the side of the road. That stuff is expensive for a very different reason.

[deleted]

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#35

Post by VladVladikoff »

Recently I had been struggling with a computer that kept crashing randomly. I finally figured out it was a bad stick of DDR4. I jokingly said to some friends I should put it on Facebook marketplace for free for repair. Maybe I should, who knows maybe someone can reflow the chips?

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#37

Post by ggm »

brennanpeterson wrote: post #33
ggm wrote: post #20

Worldwide chip pricing and it's effects on the overall economy are fascinating. I expected by now somebody with a gen -2 class VLSI plant would swing into action and make for 2/3 the cost of the majors, and clean up in volume as the market absorbs the price shock. But no, instead it suits everyone in the pipeline to whine about it, but mark up prices instead. I am guessing the other side of this, the price drops will…

Well, you are working from all sorts of misguided assumptions about how you convert, the yield, the efficiency, the shared capital, and history. Old gen logic barely exists, and won't convert. The tools are wrong so it wouldn't yield. And there isnt the expertise (on tool recipes and integration) to do it. Historically, memory is a sawtooth business. But history isn't a great guide here: 10 years ago, a new plant add…

I think a lot of what you say is true, but we're facing shortages for DDR3/DDR4 RAM and this isn't about increasing density or speed, it's about the pricing of what is a high yield functional commodity in todays manufacturing.

So the questions about 3D and 4D ram, they just aren't applicable.

Somebody should be making Samsung/Hynix ram chips and assembling them onto carriers 24/7 to sell to ordinary people. Instead, the entire production capacity is selling to Hyperscalers and going to AI.

(I could of course be wrong about even this)

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#39

Post by sudoshred »

deadbabe wrote: post #23

People act like RAM is thousands of dollars now. I checked prices recently and while it’s pretty high, it’s not that bad for a component you just buy once and use for a long time. I’m still more concerned about the prices and availability of decent GPUs.

Same people complaining "no one wants to work these days".

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#40

Post by vitally3643 »

ggm wrote: post #37
brennanpeterson wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, you are working from all sorts of misguided assumptions about how you convert, the yield, the efficiency, the shared capital, and history. Old gen logic barely exists, and won't convert. The tools are wrong so it wouldn't yield. And there isnt the expertise (on tool recipes and integration) to do it. Historically, memory is a sawtooth business. But history isn't a great guide here: 10 years ago, a new plant add…

I think a lot of what you say is true, but we're facing shortages for DDR3/DDR4 RAM and this isn't about increasing density or speed, it's about the pricing of what is a high yield functional commodity in todays manufacturing. So the questions about 3D and 4D ram, they just aren't applicable. Somebody should be making Samsung/Hynix ram chips and assembling them onto carriers 24/7 to sell to ordinary people. Instead,…

Commodities are being produced at scale and being sold to those with the resources to buy them. That's free market capitalism (derogatory).

Demand is up, prices are up, production is also up. The only "problem" is that you and I don't have disgusting amounts of money to buy in.

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