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Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

paulkrugman.substack.com

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Re: Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

#31

Post by pjc50 »

bilekas wrote: post #25
pirate787 wrote: post #3

Krugman so badly wants this to be true. But handwaving away massive difference in IT innovation and in practical data like housing size and vastly greater American consumption does not make it true. Just 20% of European homes even have air conditioning. European industrial energy costs are more than 2x the U.S. Don't ignore the data. Europe is behind and falling behind at an ever-faster clip. And the strategic issues…

This comment probably won't go down well but your point irked me. > And the strategic issues of continued vast unskilled migration into Europe If only there wasn't a global power invading countries for oil reserves over the years and causing mass migration and destabilising those places? Also have you considered 100% of the EU doesn't NEED air conditioning? Come back when you have a minimum wage and universal healthc…

I will just note that there was quite a lot of European participation in the bombing of Libya, as well as the Iraq war. European policy towards North Africa has basically been "hopefully they'll drown before they cross the Mediterranean" rather than pro-stability.

Re: Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

#32

Post by shevy-java »

> Last week I wrote about the question of whether Europe is really falling behind the United States economically.

The USA has a few key areas where it benefits a lot - for instance, the oil mafia that is controlled by the USA, e. g. the old petrodollar deal, though with the defeat of the USA against Iran (look at the "Memorandum of Understanding" signed by Trump recently) this may change a little. But an even more important area of US dominance is the software situation. The US corporations control WAY too much already. That is not good. Then add the fact that the arms industry as well as the nuclear arsenal, is also heavily controlled by the USA; arms industry is more varied, but the nuke issue is a problem, even more so when you see that Putin has Trump by the ... precious. Europe needs to disentangle as much as possible from the USA in every area. And this is not happening. Quite the opposite, Merz is constantly surrendering and submitting to Trump. He is like the ultimate US politician. Recently the EU parliament also submitted to defeat by agreeing to Trump's selfish trade deal. And european nukes? Where are these?

So unfortunately, Europe is not doing well. It is not doing completely wrong either, but it is acting like an old man who wants to submit to others. And I don't see the current generation of politicians in the EU to want to change this. They get too much financial kickback to hold down other european citizens right now. Nobody will fix the EU either, so - a deadlock situation.

Re: Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

#33

Post by Joker_vD »

merksittich wrote: post #17

> What should worry Europe, instead, are the geopolitical implications of US/Chinese leadership in advanced technology. We used to have a global economic system overseen by a mostly benign and in any case law-abiding hegemon. That system was, however, gradually eroding with the rise of China, and has now taken a drastic hit with America’s abandonment of the rules it largely created. This is the underlying theme of Eu…

> a mostly benign and in any case law-abiding hegemon.

Lol wat?

> has now taken a drastic hit with America’s abandonment of the rules it largely created.

"When gentlemen can't win the competition, they change the rules". Because of course. It's not "international law order", it's "rules-based order". And it didn't start with Trump; e.g. the US started gutting the WTO's Appellate Body during Obama's term.

Re: Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

#34

Post by pjc50 »

comrade1234 wrote: post #29
pjc50 wrote: post #12

> Yet productivity growth as conventionally measured has in fact been much faster in the US than in Europe. How can this be consistent with the fact that there has been virtually no change in the relative value of goods produced per hour? That’s the apparent US-Europe paradox. What explains it is the fact that the US and European economies produce different mixes of goods – a qualifier that is not picked up in the co…

I understand your point but YouTube isn't a good example as it has its global development team headquartered here in Zürich. Multinationals really confuse comparisons - when I bought a macbook here in Europe it got shipped to me directly from china. My money went to apple Switzerland. At no time in the process was the USA involved.

> Multinationals really confuse comparisons

Well, yes, but in both cases of Youtube revenue and Apple, that money is eventually going to show up in the accounts of the US parent company and its share price, even if it's in a Swiss bank account.

It's very hard to say where internet economic productivity ""is""! That might cause it to be over- or under- counted.

Re: Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

#35

Post by shevy-java »

hnmullany wrote: post #27
lp4v4n wrote: post #22

As someone who lives in Europe, my impression is that the continent's first priority is how to keep paying the fat pensions it pays to its retired class, the second priority is how to keep paying the pensions followed by a distant third about how to keep paying the pensions. For me it's remarkable how the continent lives looking at the past and not at the future. The older people I talk to show no concern about Europ…

You might want to look up the value of those "fat pensions" - a lot of them are substantially less than US Social Security. e.g. in Ireland, the state contributory pension (aka what you paid egregious social security taxes for) maxes out at about $18,000 per year. The equivalent pension from US Social Security is about $45,000.

This depends on the country. Austria is doing quite well here.

Why are there so many homeless people in the USA? If your assumption were to work, it would not be the case. You are simply making an incomplete analysis here.

See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewbiggs/2019/03/15/u-s-reti...

It is from 2019, but things are still somewhat similar today.

Re: Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

#36

Post by DrBazza »

bilekas wrote: post #25
pirate787 wrote: post #3

Krugman so badly wants this to be true. But handwaving away massive difference in IT innovation and in practical data like housing size and vastly greater American consumption does not make it true. Just 20% of European homes even have air conditioning. European industrial energy costs are more than 2x the U.S. Don't ignore the data. Europe is behind and falling behind at an ever-faster clip. And the strategic issues…

This comment probably won't go down well but your point irked me. > And the strategic issues of continued vast unskilled migration into Europe If only there wasn't a global power invading countries for oil reserves over the years and causing mass migration and destabilising those places? Also have you considered 100% of the EU doesn't NEED air conditioning? Come back when you have a minimum wage and universal healthc…

> If only there wasn't a global power invading countries for oil reserves over the years and causing mass migration and destabilising those places?

Do you think that's the only reason for 'mass migration'?

Consider that in the last 20 years internet access is *globally ubiquitous* because of cheap mobile phones.

That in turn means that people in the poorest parts of Africa that 20 years ago had no idea whatsoever about how 'rich' Europe is in comparison, in 2026 not only can see what they don't have, but can communicate with those than can help them make that journey by land and sea.

War and envy (for want of a better word) are the two reasons.

Re: Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

#37

Post by bilekas »

pjc50 wrote: post #31
bilekas wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment probably won't go down well but your point irked me. > And the strategic issues of continued vast unskilled migration into Europe If only there wasn't a global power invading countries for oil reserves over the years and causing mass migration and destabilising those places? Also have you considered 100% of the EU doesn't NEED air conditioning? Come back when you have a minimum wage and universal healthc…

I will just note that there was quite a lot of European participation in the bombing of Libya, as well as the Iraq war. European policy towards North Africa has basically been "hopefully they'll drown before they cross the Mediterranean" rather than pro-stability.

The EU and NATO didn't not initialize those wars. We supported the US after they made false claims for WMDs. And now when Ukraine needs some more support, they're AWOL all of a sudden. Because their "democracy" runs on the whims of a TV show personality who didn't even win more than 50% of the vote.

Re: Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

#38

Post by piva00 »

spwa4 wrote: post #18
piva00 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air conditioning is not needed in most of Europe, no idea why that would be a measurement of economic advancement. Krugman presented arguments with data, it'd be nice to see your data that counters Krugman's argument, not a whole different set of measurements that you are defining as the basis of comparison. It's just a strawman with makeup.

I am unaware of the US situation, but there are vast differences in housing quality across Europe. Compare the Netherlands, even bad parts of the countryside, to the Greek or Romanian countryside. WTF! And where you'd need air conditioning (Southern Italy, Sicily, Southern Greece) you won't find air conditioning, outside of some very rich enclaves (like parts of Malta, a small part of Sicily, some Greek and Adriatic…

> That's not because Europeans don't want big houses, don't want infinite stuff. In very large parts of Europe they can't afford it.

But this is true of the USA as well, large parts of it people cannot afford a big house, a bigger car, and they have fewer options of smaller dwellings, smaller cars to choose from when they cannot afford the biggest, most expensive options.

Wanting infinite stuff is definitely much less prevalent in Europe than in the USA, the materialistic culture is very different (and it differs even more between countries in Europe).

> I am unaware of the US situation, but there are vast differences in housing quality across Europe. Compare the Netherlands, even bad parts of the countryside, to the Greek or Romanian countryside. WTF!

Compare the housing quality in rich coastal cities of the USA vs the Appalachia, WTF!

Re: Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

#39

Post by bilekas »

DrBazza wrote: post #36
bilekas wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment probably won't go down well but your point irked me. > And the strategic issues of continued vast unskilled migration into Europe If only there wasn't a global power invading countries for oil reserves over the years and causing mass migration and destabilising those places? Also have you considered 100% of the EU doesn't NEED air conditioning? Come back when you have a minimum wage and universal healthc…

> If only there wasn't a global power invading countries for oil reserves over the years and causing mass migration and destabilising those places? Do you think that's the only reason for 'mass migration'? Consider that in the last 20 years internet access is *globally ubiquitous* because of cheap mobile phones. That in turn means that people in the poorest parts of Africa that 20 years ago had no idea whatsoever abo…

> War and envy (for want of a better word) are the two reasons.

Envy will bring more skilled workers and you'd be surprised how many people don't want to leave their homeland. Regardless of the grass being greener. Infact it's those specific reasons why there is an integration problem, because they moved without choice so fairly don't feel obligated to integrate.

Re: Challenging the Narrative of European Decline

#40

Post by RandomLensman »

piva00 wrote: post #30
RandomLensman wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of Europe doesn't need air conditioning? By what measures/what large countries don't have any need there?

Poland, Germany, Switzerland, Benelux, the Nordics, Baltics, most of Central Europe don't have a need for AC. It might make life more comfortable during some days of heatwaves but it's definitely not a need to survive. Southern Europe has experienced more scorching heat the past 1-2 decades and AC is going to become a necessity given the trend of climate warming but it's not Arizona. Also I think people aren't aware…

If "need" is defined as directly required to survive, but that isn't how I would define it. (So many things aren't "needed" then.)
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