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The (real) dead economy theory

pluralistic.net

31–40 of 69 posts

Re: The (real) dead economy theory

#31
post #16

I just don't get it. How do you go from writing the kinds of future visions he has to staring at the singularity practically hitting you in the face and calling it "the world's money-losingest technology"? Is it because he isn't actually using the technology for work on a day-to-day basis like a lot of us?

Ideological capture is an often socially enforced prison

For the people around them, yes. They themselves don't see it that way.

Re: The (real) dead economy theory

#32
post #19

Whenever I read Cory Doctorow, I feel like someone took the complement of Paul Graham's writing and posted it. I personally find both of them vapid and annoying. Edit: the article that the author is commenting on is IMO much better than the linked commentary. There's not much to it https://crookedtimber.org/2026/06/15/one-big-grift/

[dead]

Re: The (real) dead economy theory

#33
post #30

I just don't get it. How do you go from writing the kinds of future visions he has to staring at the singularity practically hitting you in the face and calling it "the world's money-losingest technology"? Is it because he isn't actually using the technology for work on a day-to-day basis like a lot of us?

> singularity I just cant get over this term, do you honestly believe in this? I use AI daily and while it is super useful I see too many limitations for it to “recursively improve and cause an intelligence explosion”. 1. Clearly, the people selling AI with this idea benefit greatly with this promise of infinite upside. Can you can trust them? 2. Singularity essentially requires to handwave away a lot of baked-in iss…

I do. Just based on personal experience of using these tools for the last several years and how they’ve progressed.

Re: The (real) dead economy theory

#34
post #13

> something is valuable because some people think other people will pay more for it in the future, and not because it does useful things This has been the definition of finance for hundreds of years. I don't know why it comes across here like this is a new phenomenon.

Well if it's eating the economy to an unprecedented extent of morbid obesity, it might lead to the most massive stroke and complete or partial collapse.

Re: The (real) dead economy theory

#35
post #30

I just don't get it. How do you go from writing the kinds of future visions he has to staring at the singularity practically hitting you in the face and calling it "the world's money-losingest technology"? Is it because he isn't actually using the technology for work on a day-to-day basis like a lot of us?

> singularity I just cant get over this term, do you honestly believe in this? I use AI daily and while it is super useful I see too many limitations for it to “recursively improve and cause an intelligence explosion”. 1. Clearly, the people selling AI with this idea benefit greatly with this promise of infinite upside. Can you can trust them? 2. Singularity essentially requires to handwave away a lot of baked-in iss…

I believe that AI is a singularity. Just like a Black hole, no information can escape and you're slowly (by subjective experience) dragged in and spaghettified.

Re: The (real) dead economy theory

#36
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> singularity I just cant get over this term, do you honestly believe in this? I use AI daily and while it is super useful I see too many limitations for it to “recursively improve and cause an intelligence explosion”. 1. Clearly, the people selling AI with this idea benefit greatly with this promise of infinite upside. Can you can trust them? 2. Singularity essentially requires to handwave away a lot of baked-in iss…

I do. Just based on personal experience of using these tools for the last several years and how they’ve progressed.

So, what your saying is that there is a perhaps linear, perhaps exponential increase, and that you are projecting that increase forward indefinitely. Let me know if this is unfair.

Counter argument: does anything else work this way? E.g. Moores law had an end too right? I would argue that the core tech breakthrough (Transformer-based LLM) has been improved, but no fundamental further innovation seems to have been made. The current architecture fundamentally hallucinates, even Fabel even on trivial problems. I.e. as number tokens increase error likelihood goes to infinity. How then, can this scale recursively to infinity?

Re: The (real) dead economy theory

#37
post #13

> something is valuable because some people think other people will pay more for it in the future, and not because it does useful things This has been the definition of finance for hundreds of years. I don't know why it comes across here like this is a new phenomenon.

It used to be only a few steps removed from actual value. Like an empty lot is worth an amount because when you plant trees it's worth an amount because when it has fully grown trees it's worth an amount because when you cut down the trees the timber is worth an amount. That's an acceptable function of finance, it allocates the value of a logging plantation between several different people who may own it at different times, so that one doesn't have to hold it for the full 20-year growth cycle to realize any value from it.

Re: The (real) dead economy theory

#38
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> singularity I just cant get over this term, do you honestly believe in this? I use AI daily and while it is super useful I see too many limitations for it to “recursively improve and cause an intelligence explosion”. 1. Clearly, the people selling AI with this idea benefit greatly with this promise of infinite upside. Can you can trust them? 2. Singularity essentially requires to handwave away a lot of baked-in iss…

I believe that AI is a singularity. Just like a Black hole, no information can escape and you're slowly (by subjective experience) dragged in and spaghettified.

Sounds great, but what is this belief based on?

I think having a technical argument is important, as we live in a time with lots of hype merchants who stand to benefit from record breaking IPOs. Propaganda can affect us all, how do you know you aren’t being sold to?

Re: The (real) dead economy theory

#39
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> singularity I just cant get over this term, do you honestly believe in this? I use AI daily and while it is super useful I see too many limitations for it to “recursively improve and cause an intelligence explosion”. 1. Clearly, the people selling AI with this idea benefit greatly with this promise of infinite upside. Can you can trust them? 2. Singularity essentially requires to handwave away a lot of baked-in iss…

I do. Just based on personal experience of using these tools for the last several years and how they’ve progressed.

What about the tools makes you think we've hit the singularity? My experience with them is that they've memorized a lot of stuff, but can't make anything fundamentally new. Most of the useful things LLMs do amounts to semantic search.

Re: The (real) dead economy theory

#40
post #3

> That's the logic of the whole market today. AI – the world's money-losingest technology – attracts investment at the expense of everything else. I expect Cory to have skepticism about technology that can be exploited for dystopian purposes, but calling AI "the world's money-losingest technology" is out of touch. If AI can support/replace some intellectual work, it'll be revolutionary, and that's what the investment…

It can't. It can only provide the appearance of doing so. It's just the Eliza effect on steroids.
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