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America has lost its war with Iran

independent.co.uk

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Re: America has lost its war with Iran

#31

Post by JumpCrisscross »

ballsac wrote: post #11
whynotmaybe wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In today's world where nuance is a disappearing diaphanous concept, the USA didn't win, so they lost.

Nuance has nothing to do with it. If you start a war and you don’t win, then you lose.

> If you start a war and you don’t win, then you lose

This is reductive. One can absolutely stalemate. Regardless of whether you start a war, if it ends with you worse off and the other party either where they were at the start or arguably better off, you lost.

If all that happened was the Strait was reopened, I'd call it a stalemate. The fact that Tehran got reparations equal to a third of a trillion dollars–over $800 from every American and $1,100 from each and every voter–makes it an Irania victory and American defeat.

Re: America has lost its war with Iran

#32

Post by dragontamer »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #28
dragontamer wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know Iran likely has a fractured government, but more assassinations vs various Iranian leadership won't exactly solve that issue. (Indeed, it's incredibly stupid that we assassinated so many leaders to the point that the peace deal is so shaky) This is as unified as Iran is going to get in the near future. So we gotta work with what we have.

> we gotta work with what we have I'm not saying we don't negotiate. I'm saying we shouldn't expect the results of any negotiations to hold. Various parties will keep trying to torpedo the peace, including by attacking American interests, because they either think they can get more or profited from the war.

I mean, the stock market is idiotic if that's what you mean and I agree.

But I will perpetually trust and hope in the peace process.

Not much to do but offer my support for the end of this war. No matter how unlikely it is.

--------

No one here knows how bad the peace deal is. It's not even published yet (and it's not even a real*(edit) peace deal but instead only a Memorandum of Understanding). I guess I do reserve the right to grow disgusted at whatever was negotiated as the details come out.

Re: America has lost its war with Iran

#33

Post by JumpCrisscross »

dragontamer wrote: post #32
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we gotta work with what we have I'm not saying we don't negotiate. I'm saying we shouldn't expect the results of any negotiations to hold. Various parties will keep trying to torpedo the peace, including by attacking American interests, because they either think they can get more or profited from the war.

I mean, the stock market is idiotic if that's what you mean and I agree. But I will perpetually trust and hope in the peace process. Not much to do but offer my support for the end of this war. No matter how unlikely it is. -------- No one here knows how bad the peace deal is. It's not even published yet (and it's not even a real*(edit) peace deal but instead only a Memorandum of Understanding). I guess I do reserve…

> the stock market is idiotic if that's what you mean and I agree

I'm referring to elements in the IRGC that consolidate power and wealth through the war. The ones agitatig for autarky.

> I do reserve the right to grow disgusted at whatever was negotiated as the details come out

I'm super curious about the timeline for payouts. If they fucked that up, it's literally in Tehran's interest to start shooting rockets into the Strait right before the midterms to try and get another goody bag.

And let's be clear, we now have a straight throughline to two directly antagonist, racist governed-by autocratic genocidalist nuclear states in the Middle East with weapons ranged for each others' territories, interspersed with a sea of un-coordinated air-defence systems which even in good times have trouble distinguishing friend from foe, thereby making the best-case ending for the next 50 years being Jordan and Lebanon littered with fallout from intercepted nukes.

Re: America has lost its war with Iran

#34

Post by Simran-B »

golden-face wrote: post #16

Even if the peace holds the whole thing feels like a definite L for the following reasons: Materiel - a huge amount of expensive and long lead time to replace missiles/interceptors expended - a $300,000,000 radar station destroyed - like 30 Reaper drones (approximately 1/5 of the total) - 1 AWACs destroyed and 3-5 others heavily damaged (we only have about 20 of them - tons of damage to infrastructure in the area (li…

… and let's not forget about Iran's Lego videos!

Re: America has lost its war with Iran

#35

Post by general1465 »

golden-face wrote: post #16

Even if the peace holds the whole thing feels like a definite L for the following reasons: Materiel - a huge amount of expensive and long lead time to replace missiles/interceptors expended - a $300,000,000 radar station destroyed - like 30 Reaper drones (approximately 1/5 of the total) - 1 AWACs destroyed and 3-5 others heavily damaged (we only have about 20 of them - tons of damage to infrastructure in the area (li…

> conflict has exposed how unprepared some of our doctrines and orders of battle are when dealing against an adversary that needs to operate on a more asymmetric level

That is known for almost 25 years since Millennium Challenge. However US military decided that to cove their ears, close their eyes and start screaming

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

Re: America has lost its war with Iran

#37

Post by dragontamer »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #33
dragontamer wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, the stock market is idiotic if that's what you mean and I agree. But I will perpetually trust and hope in the peace process. Not much to do but offer my support for the end of this war. No matter how unlikely it is. -------- No one here knows how bad the peace deal is. It's not even published yet (and it's not even a real*(edit) peace deal but instead only a Memorandum of Understanding). I guess I do reserve…

> the stock market is idiotic if that's what you mean and I agree I'm referring to elements in the IRGC that consolidate power and wealth through the war. The ones agitatig for autarky. > I do reserve the right to grow disgusted at whatever was negotiated as the details come out I'm super curious about the timeline for payouts. If they fucked that up, it's literally in Tehran's interest to start shooting rockets into…

We started this by assassinating IRGC leaders (and also other leaders who could have served as moderates or counter-balances to them).

All of this is basically the full of shitty planning. Further continuation of the war will likely only fracture the IRGC and make further peace deals even more unreachable.

Now if we actually had competent leadership who could make wartime decisions that actually lead to our benefit, the calculus would be different. But as it stands now, further war only strengthens the worst of the worst actors in Iran.

---------

Like seriously, it's like people didn't study WW2 and our decision to keep the Japanese Emperor alive/protected (why our nukes and firebombings were so far away from the Emperor). We used to think ahead and figure out the correct people worth negotiating with as part of our wartime strategy.

Re: America has lost its war with Iran

#38

Post by pseudohadamard »

general1465 wrote: post #35
golden-face wrote: post #16

Even if the peace holds the whole thing feels like a definite L for the following reasons: Materiel - a huge amount of expensive and long lead time to replace missiles/interceptors expended - a $300,000,000 radar station destroyed - like 30 Reaper drones (approximately 1/5 of the total) - 1 AWACs destroyed and 3-5 others heavily damaged (we only have about 20 of them - tons of damage to infrastructure in the area (li…

> conflict has exposed how unprepared some of our doctrines and orders of battle are when dealing against an adversary that needs to operate on a more asymmetric level That is known for almost 25 years since Millennium Challenge. However US military decided that to cove their ears, close their eyes and start screaming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

Thanks for that link, wasn't aware of it until now. And while the US military ignored it, it looks like either the IRGC paid close attention or came up with the same thing independently.

Re: America has lost its war with Iran

#39

Post by pseudohadamard »

fyredge wrote: post #27

As bad as the whole Iran situation has been, I'm glad that there are still rational actors pushing back within the military. If Trump had his way completely, I wouldn't put off the chance of an offensive nuke being used.

Well, until the dementia patient and the religious crackpot fire them and replace them with toadies.

Re: America has lost its war with Iran

#40

Post by Taniwha »

golden-face wrote: post #16

Even if the peace holds the whole thing feels like a definite L for the following reasons: Materiel - a huge amount of expensive and long lead time to replace missiles/interceptors expended - a $300,000,000 radar station destroyed - like 30 Reaper drones (approximately 1/5 of the total) - 1 AWACs destroyed and 3-5 others heavily damaged (we only have about 20 of them - tons of damage to infrastructure in the area (li…

.... and people died, lots of people died
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