My trading app (Nordnet - big in Scandinavia) is plastered with ads for the SpaceX IPO.
I don’t think I have ever seen this before.
We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
31–40 of 301 posts
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#32I want some shares purely as a novelty. Don't really care about the price. It's not about making money. It's about owning a piece of the future.
well the good news is, you are exactly who they are looking for! you could just buy some merch though, which has the same effect otherwise using ROIC or CAGR might be more optimal way to evaluate your investments
I already walked away with a 140k gain in TSLA. I did get some SpaceX t-shirts though. Most of my portfolio is decidedly boring right now.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#33I'm generally going to avoid betting against Elon.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
The orbital data center thing is really strange. Without some kind of massive technological breakthrough the physics of an orbital data center make no sense. Napkin math for a single data center including solar panels, radiators, compute and structure is somewhere on the order of ~6500 tonnes. Let's say Starship can put 100-150 tonnes into orbit per launch, that is somewhere between 40-65 launches for just one single…
The actual “plan” is to just put a couple of GPUs in each Starlink satellite for inference. They’re not launching something the size of a building!
That just doesn't seem to justify anywhere near the valuation though does it?
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
The orbital data center thing is really strange. Without some kind of massive technological breakthrough the physics of an orbital data center make no sense. Napkin math for a single data center including solar panels, radiators, compute and structure is somewhere on the order of ~6500 tonnes. Let's say Starship can put 100-150 tonnes into orbit per launch, that is somewhere between 40-65 launches for just one single…
The video they posted today outlines their specs. They are gonna be smaller. About 100T. Based on Starlink architecture but with way larger radiators and solar panels. Apparently the design is simpler than existing Starlinks because it has fewer different parts. Specs: https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/2064108916611420273?s=20
I feel like we are going to relive the hyperloop-decline with the specs of proposed orbital datacentres. But the hyperloop was in one regard a success, in that it built temporary hype. Maybe it was even named after that.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#36> Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt in two of the three scenarios, in which we assume the company can achieve a rapidly reusable Starship rocket enabling multiple launches per week and successfully commercialize data centers in space. > In our downside scenario, orbital data centers won’t work or offer any advantage over terrestrial ones. We surmise that the company, having invested…
The orbital data center thing is really strange. Without some kind of massive technological breakthrough the physics of an orbital data center make no sense. Napkin math for a single data center including solar panels, radiators, compute and structure is somewhere on the order of ~6500 tonnes. Let's say Starship can put 100-150 tonnes into orbit per launch, that is somewhere between 40-65 launches for just one single…
They'll do smaller satellites, and if they can get an order of magnitude improvement on cooling and power generation to weight ratios, it'll be close to the same order of magnitude cost-wise as a terrestrial datacenter. 10x the cost is likely not enough to make it all work, so it's a bad idea, but it's possibly less bad than using lead ballast for starship launches... maybe.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#37> We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued Well... yeah, sure, everyone thinks that. And the fact that it doesn't matter and won't impact demand for shares illustrates how increasingly and dangerously untethered the stock market is from reality.
> ...and dangerously untethered the stock market is from reality.
"Disconnected from historical valuation norms" is a more sensible statement.
The idea that the stock market is "detached from reality" is dangerous too because the stock market is...reality. People make and lose real money in it every day.
There are good arguments that the historical valuation norms are reasonable and deviation from them is "dangerous" but there's no actual law that says the stock market needs to behave according to history.
While I personally think the current behavior has significant risk, I also can't dismiss that the role the stock market plays today is different. It's not just about raising capital, providing liquidity, price discovery, risk management and building wealth, for large numbers of laypeople it's also the go-to casino (entertainment) and a platform for expression (way to express dissatisfaction with corporations, politicians, the world, etc.).
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
The orbital data center thing is really strange. Without some kind of massive technological breakthrough the physics of an orbital data center make no sense. Napkin math for a single data center including solar panels, radiators, compute and structure is somewhere on the order of ~6500 tonnes. Let's say Starship can put 100-150 tonnes into orbit per launch, that is somewhere between 40-65 launches for just one single…
They'll do smaller satellites, and if they can get an order of magnitude improvement on cooling and power generation to weight ratios, it'll be close to the same order of magnitude cost-wise as a terrestrial datacenter. 10x the cost is likely not enough to make it all work, so it's a bad idea, but it's possibly less bad than using lead ballast for starship launches... maybe.
“Supervised Full Self Driving.” Buy the hope, sell reality.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#39I wish Ed Zitron (currently also front page HN) would adopt this calm, measured writing style. It’s much more convincing and shorter to read too.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#40> We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued Well... yeah, sure, everyone thinks that. And the fact that it doesn't matter and won't impact demand for shares illustrates how increasingly and dangerously untethered the stock market is from reality.
I mean the market is seemingly completely detached from the reality of financial performance. However, it’s VERY MUCH attached to the reality that is investor whims. You’re not betting on a company doing well, you’re betting that other investors won’t want to sell it en-masse. That’s it. As far as I can tell, that’s exactly how it works. Reality is investor emotions. If it shouldn’t be that, I mean the whole system n…
Short-term, you are correct. However long-term, the stock market does tend to weigh value heavily. That is something that people who aren't familiar with the stock market often get confused because how can people who are in the short term and the wrong term have such different outcomes.
One of the obvious problems with the short-term thinking is you can trade on feelings all you want, but if things go really bad the company goes bankrupt and suddenly the court say no more trades allowed anymore and your and your value goes to zero.