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The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

montanaskeptic.substack.com

31–40 of 130 posts

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#31

It's hard to know if SpaceX will flop in a week or in a decade but what I'm pretty confident on is a lot of retail capital allocated in Tesla will be redistributed to SpaceX. So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.

How do you know that this isn't already priced by quant firms?

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#32

SpaceX a failure at 83% of mass to orbit. Yoikes.

The launch business is impressive relative to the launch industry, but in terms of company capital value, it is a very small part of the company.

I'm rooting for SpaceX, but even I can see that there's some extremely dicey work being done to mask the enormous sinkhole of XAi (and Twitter).

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#33

The point-to-point travel with starship is the one that urks me the most. It is completely unrealistic and will never happen. They have Zürich, Switzerland as a destination. There is no place in all of Zürich to facility such a thing, you will blow out every window in the city at each launch. Absolutely ridiculous that anyone would take this serious. Also don't get me started on data centers in space idea... When the…

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Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#34
post #24

[flagged]

I doubt your sentiment. Index funds are for people who don't want to know about the details and put the work in. They go by general recommendations.

Now the underlying rules got changed, undeniably in favor and through pressure of few individuals.

Where I come from, we call that a rug pull

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#35
So this guy was pretty active in the TeslaQ community. They believed Tesla to be (extremely) overvalued in 2017-2019 on the grounds that they would never become profitable.. or something. They lost a lot of money shorting Tesla. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/91aha1/montana...

Anyways, seems like he's keeping the grudge alive.

They were right about a couple of things back then. But majorly wrong in aggregate and with respect to the outcome.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#36

It's hard to know if SpaceX will flop in a week or in a decade but what I'm pretty confident on is a lot of retail capital allocated in Tesla will be redistributed to SpaceX. So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.

How do you know that this isn't already priced by quant firms?

More like: why would you think it's not already priced in. Answer: I'm super special!

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#39

So this guy was pretty active in the TeslaQ community. They believed Tesla to be (extremely) overvalued in 2017-2019 on the grounds that they would never become profitable.. or something. They lost a lot of money shorting Tesla. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/91aha1/montana... Anyways, seems like he's keeping the grudge alive. They were right about a couple of things back then. But majorly wrong in agg…

To be fair, they were overvalued in those days as well. Just because the on-paper value went up doesn’t make their statements false, it just means we’ve continued the charade.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#40

The point-to-point travel with starship is the one that urks me the most. It is completely unrealistic and will never happen. They have Zürich, Switzerland as a destination. There is no place in all of Zürich to facility such a thing, you will blow out every window in the city at each launch. Absolutely ridiculous that anyone would take this serious. Also don't get me started on data centers in space idea... When the…

And even that pales in comparison to their estimate of a $22.7T (T!) market for their AI "enterprise applications".

As a point of reference, the GDP of the United States is roughly $30T.

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