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Naphtha shortages in Japan

nippon.com

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Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#31

Post by flakiness »

pibaker wrote: post #23
nogajun wrote: post #9

As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production, leading to a shortage of daily necessities. The fact that Calbee’s snack packaging has turned monochrome is a direct consequence of this. The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision. What is even more alarming is that more tha…

> The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision. Do you have a citation for this? This sounds insane. I can't even think of any good faith motivation for doing this, other than to cover up the shortage and to keep the public pacified.

> https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASV5N32MVV5NUTFK005M.html

The title reads "PM's Office calls Calbee's response a "stunt"; Emphasizes naphtha sufficiency, including intermediate products".

Asahi Shinbun is one of the established newspapers.

Also at the end (translated by google):

> "The government interviewed Calbee about the situation on the 12th. According to a government official, they explained to Calbee that there is a sufficient amount available in terms of total volume. Sources close to the Prime Minister expressed concern over the ripple effects, stating, "Calbee's reaction is an overreaction. Their announcement will cause other companies to become anxious as well." However, Calbee maintains its stance, with a public relations representative stating, "This is a measure to ensure the stable supply of our products."

So it's relatively mild "nudge", if you compare it to the current US administration.

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#32

Post by yieldcrv »

nogajun wrote: post #9

As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production, leading to a shortage of daily necessities. The fact that Calbee’s snack packaging has turned monochrome is a direct consequence of this. The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision. What is even more alarming is that more tha…

[flagged]

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#33

Post by gryson »

no-name-here wrote: post #26
gryson wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan is nowhere near the worst for plastic waste per capita, and it has very high recycling rates. Rely more on statistics and less on personal observation.

Even better to provide a source for each statistic. Japan has about half the plastic waste rate, yes [1]. However, the top recycling search result claims Japan only has a 19% recycling rate compared to the US’s 24% [2], but you might have been referring to a specific recycling type? [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/plastic-waste-per-capita [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recycling_rates_by_country

You're greatly misunderstanding that second link: that's the breakdown of what happens to collected municipal waste within each country (notice they all add up to 100% for each country). That says nothing about total amounts of plastic waste collected or recycled.

See Table 1 here and its sources:

https://circulareconomy.earth/publications/how-japan-is-usin...

Japan recycles about 24% of its used consumer plastics into new products, while the US recycles about 8%. That's NOT factoring in thermal recycling, which Japan is far better at than the US.

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#34

Post by tzs »

nogajun wrote: post #9

As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production, leading to a shortage of daily necessities. The fact that Calbee’s snack packaging has turned monochrome is a direct consequence of this. The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision. What is even more alarming is that more tha…

Google is telling me that there were production drops in 2025, but it was (1) due to an oversupply caused by Japanese ethylene and benzene exports fell due new plants in China and an increase in cheaper exports from the US to Asian markets, and (2) domestic gasoline consumption dropping.

Everything I can find says the shortages now are due to the Iran war.

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#36

Post by Synaesthesia »

Maybe the point of the Iran war was to boost the US economy, relative to East Asia, which is dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas, while the US is an exporter.

I mean look who benefits from this, arms companies and oil/gas companies are having a bonanza.

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#37

Post by Tor3 »

alephnerd wrote: post #21
nogajun wrote: post #9

As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production, leading to a shortage of daily necessities. The fact that Calbee’s snack packaging has turned monochrome is a direct consequence of this. The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision. What is even more alarming is that more tha…

> As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production Not exactly. Japan only produces around 40% of it's naphtha domestically, with 40% from the Middle East and the other 20% from other sources. Much of the pain arose from supply shock for the 40% sources from the ME. That said, much of the pain around naphata is trans…

The situation may stabilize over time as Japan gradually manages to shift sources. However, the situation has been and is serious, the Calbee issue isn't really what matters of course. As someone who's currently in the process of building a new house, I'm in constant touch with my construction company, and they tell me that there are tons of procurement problems because of the naphta shortage. Some companies have stopped taking orders altogether. We're lucky in that our construction company managed to secure what we need just in time, those just a couple of weeks after us have problems. We are mostly fine, except for some stuff, which, while important, can be handled. Or delayed, at least.

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#38

Post by Tor3 »

ronnier wrote: post #35

Hn has at least one article in the top 25 related to Japan every day, even about the most obscure topics.

Naphta may sound obscure, but it's the base for a ton of products. I actually had no idea, until the building / construction companies around here started getting into serious trouble (I wrote about that in another comment).

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#39

Post by alephnerd »

Tor3 wrote: post #37
alephnerd wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production Not exactly. Japan only produces around 40% of it's naphtha domestically, with 40% from the Middle East and the other 20% from other sources. Much of the pain arose from supply shock for the 40% sources from the ME. That said, much of the pain around naphata is trans…

The situation may stabilize over time as Japan gradually manages to shift sources. However, the situation has been and is serious, the Calbee issue isn't really what matters of course. As someone who's currently in the process of building a new house, I'm in constant touch with my construction company, and they tell me that there are tons of procurement problems because of the naphta shortage. Some companies have sto…

Absolutely, it is serious and will take months to stabilize, but this isn't the first nor the last shock like this that will arise.

The 2022 Russia-Ukraine War led to a temporary shock like this as did the Iraqi Civil War and the subsequent surge in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

Life is filled with black swans and it truly sucks at the individual level, but at the macro-level this is transitionary.

Also, for the Japanese government, the housing pain is less worrisome than it's downstream impact on cracking.

Re: Naphtha shortages in Japan

#40

Post by amake »

pibaker wrote: post #23
nogajun wrote: post #9

As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production, leading to a shortage of daily necessities. The fact that Calbee’s snack packaging has turned monochrome is a direct consequence of this. The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision. What is even more alarming is that more tha…

> The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision. Do you have a citation for this? This sounds insane. I can't even think of any good faith motivation for doing this, other than to cover up the shortage and to keep the public pacified.

> I can't even think of any good faith motivation for doing this, other than to cover up the shortage and to keep the public pacified

Yes

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