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Canada in Technical Recession

cbc.ca

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Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#31

Post by windexh8er »

clickety_clack wrote: post #9

I’m surprised it’s taken this long to get here. Talking to a few friends up there, the country has been feeling economically depressed for the last couple of years.

I don't think this is dissimilar to the US to be honest. We just happen to have inflated and questionable revenue being reported at levels that gloss over the true underpinnings of the economy. I think this may be a leading indicator.

I really liked how Cory Doctorow framed what Canada could be doing with respect to digital sovereignty in his book ("Enshittification"). Doctorow argues that if Canada repealed its anti-circumvention law (Bill C-11), Canadian companies could legally jailbreak American tech products (John Deere tractors, the Apple App Store, etc) and sell those fixes worldwide, turning the right to tinker into a massive export industry and a form of digital sovereignty.

One can dream.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#32

Post by slopinthebag »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #26
slopinthebag wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Canada has been in a recession for years if you used per-capita GDP, high immigration masked this.

And this quarter is the opposite. per-capita GDP growth was positive 0.2%.

Yes because of Alberta and oil due to the ongoing crisis. Single handedly carrying the Canadian economy rn.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#33

Post by bryanlarsen »

slopinthebag wrote: post #32
bryanlarsen wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this quarter is the opposite. per-capita GDP growth was positive 0.2%.

Yes because of Alberta and oil due to the ongoing crisis. Single handedly carrying the Canadian economy rn.

The oil price jump had little impact on Q1; the war started at the end of February and it took a while for markets to realize that it wouldn't be quick.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#34

Post by josefritzishere »

usrnm wrote: post #19

I have zero knowledge of economics, so maybe someone can help me with the question that's been bothering me lately. Why is being in recession or not decided based on figures not adjusted for inflation? I mean, a large part of Europe is technically not in recession, but growing at a rate that's much lower than inflation is no real growth at all, is it? How does it work?

Economics is not a science but it sure likes to pretend that it is with lots of technical jargon. https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2013/12/13/economics-scie...

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#35

Post by sanswork »

pigeons wrote: post #23
bawolff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given canada has so much oil,is the hormuz situation really a net negative for canada ecconomically? Like obviously its terrible in general, but id expect higher oil prices to help starve off a recesion.

Do Canadian industries use a large percentage of petroleum products refined from Canadian oil or is it refined from blends produced in other areas of the world, such as the United States and the Middle East?

Canada has minimal refining capacity.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#36

Post by alephnerd »

rayiner wrote: post #27
alephnerd wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much of the capex that was invested thanks to IRA and CHIPS subsidizes is starting to go operational and trade barriers enacted during both Trump 1 and the Biden admin remain in action, so it wasn't that surprising that much of the output that was unlocked from that era is continuing. That said, tariffs and trade barriers did help. Heck, I'm a Dem but even I argued that we needed to build trade and non-trade barriers…

I think Biden was an industrial policy guy at heart and it’s a shame he was so old by the time he got a chance to execute on his ideas.

Yep. That said, much of the stimulus and industrial support packages that were pushed thru in the Obama admin were thanks to the political cover Biden provided as Veep - he was Obama's senate whisperer.

That said, industrial policy has bipartisan support at this point now. As you know working DC BigLaw, professional networks are stronger than partisan biases.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#37

Post by MichaelZuo »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #30
MichaelZuo wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well population grew significantly so it’s a bigger decline in per capita terms. Notably this was even though AI systems got decent enough, supposedly, to do simple tasks and answer simple questions correctly.

That's not true. The population shrunk in the first quarter, so the GDP actually grew by 0.2% on a per capita basis.

Oh yes once you include non permanent residents the total number has gone down.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#38

Post by bawolff »

slopinthebag wrote: post #25
bawolff wrote: post #15

I wonder to what extent the clamp down on immigration is related to this. Feels like a factor that gets lost with everyone blaming trump (which dont get me wrong, he deserves)

Yes, Canada has been in a recession for years if you used per-capita GDP, high immigration masked this.

I don't know if "masking" is the correct term for engaging in a policy that would cause an increase in gdp. The immigrants contribution to the economy was still real.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#39

Post by jayelem »

slopinthebag wrote: post #24

Canada has been in a recession for years if you consider per-capita GDP. But the government has been importing millions of people to artificially boost GDP, and as soon as they started decreasing immigration targets GDP dropped. But Canadians have been feeling the squeeze for years. Especially the youth, who have a ~15% unemployment rate and are the unhappiest demographic of all developed nations :( Also kind of weir…

It’s the 6 the story from the top of cbc.ca/news as I write this.

Re: Canada in Technical Recession

#40

Post by Fire-Dragon-DoL »

slopinthebag wrote: post #24

Canada has been in a recession for years if you consider per-capita GDP. But the government has been importing millions of people to artificially boost GDP, and as soon as they started decreasing immigration targets GDP dropped. But Canadians have been feeling the squeeze for years. Especially the youth, who have a ~15% unemployment rate and are the unhappiest demographic of all developed nations :( Also kind of weir…

Is it true? I think unemployment rate for youth in Italy is around 18%. Are they more happy to not work?
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