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Internet traffic in Iran increasing

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Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#31

Post by jmyeet »

nostrademons wrote: post #12

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news. It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at lea…

No, Iran is acting like time is on their side. Because it is. The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. That's going to be a whole new level of suffering.

Trump is doubling down on Israel's demands. That's the true stumbling block here. Israel wanted this war. They still do. Israel thinks they can turn Iran into a failed-state like Somalia.

Trump is also the least reliable indicator of what's going to happen becausee, as we all hopefully know by now, he just rants stream-of-consciousness like. The Joint Chiefs, the intelligence community and allies all knew this was doomed to failure. Closing the Strait of Hormuz has been historically modeled in terms of military exercises and capability for decades. It was unproven prior to this war if the US could reopen the Strait. Well, now we know. Congratulations, everybody, the system works.

I don't know what increased Internet traffic from Iran means. As was proven last year though, Israel used that access for intelligence and assassination purposes (ie to identify target locations, particularly through the large number of of Afghan refugees that were in the country at the time, allegedly [1]).

There is no grand strategy. There are no cards left to play by the US short of the use of nuclear weapons. I mean that literally. The uS has lost but unwillingness to break with Israel has stopped the administration from admitting it publicly.

[1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckglp8epg11o

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#32

Post by bluegatty »

nostrademons wrote: post #12

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news. It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at lea…

No, the regime has been very publicly saying 'there is no deal', more so than US Admin who keeps hinting 'a deal' or 'imminent' or '95% of the way there'.

"Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. "

No - he's been backing down over and over for weeks. There limited strikes today.

The US Admin is wary of escalation, Tehran knows it (or seems to be acting as though they believe that) and are dragging this along.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#33

Post by twothreeone »

nostrademons wrote: post #23
twothreeone wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't it also possible that this happened to be one of the explicit pre-conditions for a treaty by the US?

It could be a trust-building move, open up a little and see if it's reciprocated, although if it's a trust-building move the right response is probably not to threaten to obliterate them, or to launch more military strikes. Although this conflict has seen both sides consistently choose the wrong response in basically every situation, which is why it's still going on.

Yeah, it's not even clear what the true motivation is from the US side.. "get the Uranium out" by itself doesn't make sense, because (a) they can just enrich again (or even be supplied directly by Russia/NK) and (b) even if they build nukes they'll never be able to reach US territory. If they wanted to destabilize the regime, they would have needed to actively push an alternative group or leader. If they wanted to pressure China/EU by stressing global markets, I'd say it was mildly successful - though incredibly short term.. I suppose it may be a mix of all of those (and maybe more). But I'm lost as to what the overall goal and strategy is here, it feels extremely haphazard.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#34

Post by bluegatty »

jmyeet wrote: post #31
nostrademons wrote: post #12

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news. It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at lea…

No, Iran is acting like time is on their side. Because it is. The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. That's going to be a whole new level of suffering. Trump is doubling down on Israel's demands. That's the true stumbling block here. Israel wanted this war. They…

Time is on their side - except for the embargo. That stops 90% of their revenue and that's a very real thing.

It's interesting to see how far they think they can get away with this, but they are not in an easy situation.

Soldiers and civil infrastructure don't last on $0.

That money stops is the 'most likely thing' that will cause a real revolution.

Both sides are hoping for 'regime change' by embargo it seems!

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#35

Post by platinumrad »

dakolli wrote: post #30
platinumrad wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a fan of the Iranian government at all but this is pure Iran Derangement Syndrome. If you thought about this for half a second you'd realize that their "army of digital burglars" has had internet access the entire time. No state, and especially not one that specializes in proxy warfare, is going to intentionally cripple its actors with the highest damage to plausible deniability ratio.

[flagged]

It's the middle of the night in the region, so I don't expect very many human internet users from Israel or Iran right now. This may also explain why so much of the traffic coming out of Iran is flagged as bot traffic.

I agree that a significant portion of urban middle class Iranians have been online the entire time, but it's a group that is roughly analogous to the people in China who go out of their way to use a VPN.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#36

Post by platinumrad »

lysace wrote: post #22
platinumrad wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insofar as it being regular citizens expression their opinions, yes, even if we might not agree with them. I wouldn't call that "pro-hamas propaganda".

What would you call it?

The same thing you would call people on this site expressing geopolitical opinions that half of the world might disagree with.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#37

Post by bluegatty »

dakolli wrote: post #29
mlmonkey wrote: post #2

I don't think the current regime has changed their policy out of the goodness of their hearts, or for the concerns of the citizenry. If I were to hazard a guess, I'm guessing it is so their army of digital burglars can wreak havoc on US sites, in retaliation for the bombings by the US. So I guess we can only expect more ransomware and more digital mayhem.

[flagged]

"Don't fall for the trap where the US and Israel paints Iran as some authoritarian censor. The US is far more authoritarian"

This is total delusion, honestly, it's why people in these systems will remain trapped for a long time.

America has many problems but when people in places like Iran start on this bandwagon, it's evidence of inability to just weigh reality in the face of emotional rhetoric.

Nobody is suggesting that Iran is 'committing genocide' - that's just something you made up, however, they have been killing protesters, this is very real.

From Amnesty [1] (not exactly a pro US voice) Human Rights Watch [2]

Amnesty and HRW indicate the state murdered at least thousands of protesters, and HRW has considerably more than that under investigation, there is plenty of evidence.

There are 2000 drones that hit UAE and you hardly see a video, why? Because UAE officials are brutally oppressive about this. They threaten people with imprisonment and expulsion for any 'leaks' and they've been forcing social media personalities to push propaganda. That's just UAE, Iran is even more assertive.

Press freedom index [3]

Iran has a ruthlessly oppressive regime, not even comparable to that of the US.

[1] https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/middle-east-and-north-af...

[2] https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2024/country-chapters/iran

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Press_Freedom_Index

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#38

Post by dools »

nostrademons wrote: post #12

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news. It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at lea…

> Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't?

Well, yes probably.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#39

Post by wunderlotus »

dakolli wrote: post #29
mlmonkey wrote: post #2

I don't think the current regime has changed their policy out of the goodness of their hearts, or for the concerns of the citizenry. If I were to hazard a guess, I'm guessing it is so their army of digital burglars can wreak havoc on US sites, in retaliation for the bombings by the US. So I guess we can only expect more ransomware and more digital mayhem.

[flagged]

> Don't trust 5 eyes (this includes CF)

What are CF & 5 eyes?

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#40

Post by dnautics »

jmyeet wrote: post #31
nostrademons wrote: post #12

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news. It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at lea…

No, Iran is acting like time is on their side. Because it is. The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. That's going to be a whole new level of suffering. Trump is doubling down on Israel's demands. That's the true stumbling block here. Israel wanted this war. They…

> The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained.

It's not clear to me that the "world" will come down on Iran's side on this one. On the one hand you have a country that is perpetrating a violation of international norms by establishing a toll on the straight of hormuz and is shooting at or is threatening to shoot at the "world"'s ships, on the other hand you have a country that violated international norms by invading another country (ho hum, everyone does this) but isn't shooting at or threatening to shoot at your ships (mostly just iranian or dark ships). When the oil reserves run out, do you side with the bad guys that are making a token effort at helping to get oil to you, or do you side with the bad guys that are preventing oil from getting to you just to middle finger trump?

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