Where does next-token prediction leave us? • Hacker News Board

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#31

Post by selcuka » Wed, May 27, 2026, 4:43 AM UTC

brookst wrote: post #25

jack_pp wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

do people at the bottom have access to medical advances or are they in lifelong debt in the unfortunate case when they need those medical advances?

How accessible were covid vaccines?

Were the vaccines accessible because of the sympathy towards the people at the bottom, or so that they can go back to work as soon as possible? Medicine is subsidised when there is a global pandemic, but not when individual lives are at stake.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#32

Post by altmanaltman » Wed, May 27, 2026, 4:43 AM UTC

mmilunic wrote: post #8

> Non-technical middle managers who have not written a line of code in their lives, now feel that the biggest obstacle between them and greatness has lifted. I find it interesting how this is almost the “democratization” you mentioned that AI provides. While AI “democratizes” certain technical ability, in some ways the democratization of things can actually be bad, in that this “democratization” pushes us towards a s…

Coding was always "democratized". You just had to put in the effort of learning and understanding. Finding free resources is very easy.

AI doesn't make that learning and understanding easy but just allows people to skip it.

That doesn't mean democratization at all.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#33

Post by arjie » Wed, May 27, 2026, 4:48 AM UTC

sigmar wrote: post #2

>But lately I’ve been thinking if it is just a class issue? This cohort of people likely have a cushion that softens the concussive blows they are doling out right now. They perhaps have the luxury of a somewhat functioning government and a social safety net that they are witness to in all walks of life. Over half the world does not. Science and technology, I feel, has always had a certain apathy towards the plight t…

Seems to me that it is downstream from the fact that China's economy is growing strongly and strong state power means that they see infrastructural improvements. US and European governments reflect the views of their people which are generally retrogressive and aimed at a fictional view of the 1970s as described in The Simpsons. Consequently, the Chinese are enthusiastic about Nuclear Power, and Solar Power, and Wind Energy, and AI, and ship building, and space programs, and trains, and electric vehicles, and so on ad infinitum to the degree that they don't mind smoggy cities to get these. Meanwhile Western nations mostly want to live in whatever they already have and would prefer nothing change or if it does that this change moves them closer to a past world, while nonetheless enjoying clean air and water.

I, personally, think that this is somewhat like hoping that mining coal will lead to a great leap forward in development because mining coal led in the past to a great leap forward in development.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#34

Post by alanwreath » Wed, May 27, 2026, 4:48 AM UTC

It’s a cliff we’re all being push to. Don’t know about you, I’m just struggling to put on my parachute !!!

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#35

Post by altmanaltman » Wed, May 27, 2026, 4:48 AM UTC

brookst wrote: post #23

overgard wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate the term "democratization". It's putting a respectable face on something that shouldn't be respectable at all. In the age of the internet, coding and other creative skills have always been largely democratized to people that care enough to learn. Nothing is being "democratized" by AI, there's simply (an attempt) at driving the value of actual skill to zero so the skill-less and stupid can purchase their way to…

It’s not coding that’s being democratized, it’s the ability to create games, tools, etc, that require coding. Suppose it became possible to buy a Ferrari (not that new hideous one) for $5k. That would be democratizing Ferrari ownership: far more people could do it. I’m sure there would be investment bankers who would complain it devalues their hard work (I am not a fan of those people, but it is notoriously long hour…

Wait a second, you say its not coding thats getting democratized. It is the "ability to create" software... hm i wonder what would be the ability to write software? Maybe something like software engineering?

Also your example with Ferrari is completely flawed, and I dont give a fuck about what investment bankers think or do. What are you even talking about here?

Please explain the first part more than you hand waved away to make a completely unrelated metaphorical case. What is the ability to create software if not software engineering? How are both different?

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#36

Post by Gigachad » Wed, May 27, 2026, 4:49 AM UTC

holoduke wrote: post #18

sigmar wrote: post #2

>But lately I’ve been thinking if it is just a class issue? This cohort of people likely have a cushion that softens the concussive blows they are doling out right now. They perhaps have the luxury of a somewhat functioning government and a social safety net that they are witness to in all walks of life. Over half the world does not. Science and technology, I feel, has always had a certain apathy towards the plight t…

Maybe chinese are generally more positive about everything. Many European countries and the US are in a decline for some years now.

From what I've seen, The Chinese are more likely to believe the government has their back and the benefits of AI will be spread across the population. While Americans believe it will go towards billionaire mega yachts while they starve on the street.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#37

Post by jstummbillig » Wed, May 27, 2026, 4:56 AM UTC

> So, where does next token prediction leave us? In a perpetual loop of rent-seeking for something made with humanity’s collective output of centuries. It is not a good place for an individual to be in, regardless of class.

In what way is this different to electricity?

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#38

Post by perching_aix » Wed, May 27, 2026, 4:58 AM UTC

altmanaltman wrote: post #32

mmilunic wrote: post #8

> Non-technical middle managers who have not written a line of code in their lives, now feel that the biggest obstacle between them and greatness has lifted. I find it interesting how this is almost the “democratization” you mentioned that AI provides. While AI “democratizes” certain technical ability, in some ways the democratization of things can actually be bad, in that this “democratization” pushes us towards a s…

Coding was always "democratized". You just had to put in the effort of learning and understanding. Finding free resources is very easy. AI doesn't make that learning and understanding easy but just allows people to skip it. That doesn't mean democratization at all.

[dead]

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#39

Post by jack_pp » Wed, May 27, 2026, 5:03 AM UTC

brookst wrote: post #25

jack_pp wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

do people at the bottom have access to medical advances or are they in lifelong debt in the unfortunate case when they need those medical advances?

How accessible were covid vaccines?

It costs between 4k and 10k if you break your leg and call an ambulance in the US. Forget medical advances, it costs you a car to get a cast

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#40

Post by overgard » Wed, May 27, 2026, 5:06 AM UTC

I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because I've met so many people of the managerial class that seem to think it's going to replace the annoying people they have to pay, but somehow they don't think it's going to come for them. It's like we have some sort of society-wide main-character syndrome where a bunch of people just think that somehow the machine can replace every other job, and yet after ingesting all of human knowledge it somehow won't be able to compete with someone with "domain expertise"? Shit, even the cynical people that think their wealth is going to protect them are probably ignoring that if unemployment hits 50+%, society is just going to stay stable and they're going to be safe? I don't think this doomsday scenario is going to happen, but I think the people that are cheering for it need to really consider what they're cheering for.