Live data from Hacker News

War game exposed U.S. vulnerability to low-tech warfare

nsarchive.gwu.edu

31–40 of 106 posts

Re: War game exposed U.S. vulnerability to low-tech warfare

#31
I think they know that the military is mostly a grift in spending at times of peace. It keeps the military and benefactors happy. the defense industry employs people , which helps with support for the military.

In times of war, they expect mobilization will mean different things.

But I don't think it works that way. You can't suddenly go low tech, the mindset and the skills pipeline can't just be developed within a few months. It doesn't matter how much willpower or money you have.

The way tech and warfare is going, it's a volume game. Both sides have drones, both sides have anti-drone systems. Which side can get enough drones past defenses to cause harm? Which side can keep producing enough drone swarms and sustain enormous casualties and keep fighting?

The new supply line is the one you need to keep drones fueled up, and within line-of-sight and other comms requirement boundaries, since the other guys will be jamming, and the deeper you string from further away, the more difficult the other guys will find it to fight back, or defend.

I focused in on drones/UAV, but I think it applies to all forms of warfare today. Not just UAV, but even infantry.

The US has been at war regularly for a long time now. On one hand, it means a well trained and prepared fighting force. On the other hand, what it takes to win a war against the US has been figured out by all its serious adversaries. Undermine its soft power, alienate it from its network of allies, and attack the political will of the American public. That last bit is how Korea, Afghanistan, and now Iran were a loss for the US. It goes for any country, it's never about the superiority of technology, or arms alone.

The Manhattan project didn't win the war in the pacific theater of the second world war for example, at least not ultimately. ultimately, the fact that the japanese leadership accepted that there would be more nukes, and that american leadership, and public alike are more than willing to keep killing hundreds of thousands of civilians did. All serious enemies of the US now know that they must get the american public on their side, or get the american public to simply not care about fighting them at such high costs.

I can't imagine a good way to solve that ultimate weakness...other than to reduce costs. Instead a million dollar UAV, use a $99 kimikaze UAV, and send 10k of them at a time, constant waves of attacks that are impossible to defend. demoralize and destabilize the enemy very quickly at low cost before opinions waver.

I only said all that purely for intellectual curiosity though. War is a filthy thing. There is no realistic prospect of homeland warfare for the US. I would prefer to not be prepared for war at all. A constant state of readiness for war is inviting war. It needs to be written into law that peacetime defense spending cannot exceed more than a certain portion of the GDP to national debt ratio, and never above like 1% of revenue.

Re: War game exposed U.S. vulnerability to low-tech warfare

#32

Feels like the title needs some sort of "2002" notice - the reporting is recent but the actual wargame was done in 2002 and only recently declassified. So, of course, the US military's vulnerability has only increased in spades since 2002 due to drones. All those bases in the Middle East that were supposed to help protect the countries where they were based were just ripe targets. I think more critically, most of the…

I'm not sure a carrier strike group would actually outright lose to a giant swarm of drones, at least in terms of the carrier being sunk. A Shahed warhead is pretty small once you're using it against large warships. That said, I wonder why you don't see Ukraine and Russia doing this more -- "saving up" for massive clouds of long range strike drones every couple weeks, instead of sending out a couple hundred every nig…

I suppose there is an opportunity cost to saving up all your weapons. What is the enemy doing in that time where you stop throwing things at them?

Otherwise, what stopped them from saving up all the bullets, artillery, or bombs and sending them out in brief pulses in prior wars...

Re: War game exposed U.S. vulnerability to low-tech warfare

#33
post #23

Feels like the title needs some sort of "2002" notice - the reporting is recent but the actual wargame was done in 2002 and only recently declassified. So, of course, the US military's vulnerability has only increased in spades since 2002 due to drones. All those bases in the Middle East that were supposed to help protect the countries where they were based were just ripe targets. I think more critically, most of the…

> I don't even know how an aircraft carrier would begin to defend itself against an onslaught of thousands of drones. $13 billion dollar military toybox? Let’s think. EMP. Nets. Defensive Drones. Superdome. Finding the solution isn’t hard - choosing and implementing it takes time when you’re a stumbling behemoth.

I suppose everyone is going to want some really good goggles before they turn on some laser based CIWS replacement!

Re: War game exposed U.S. vulnerability to low-tech warfare

#34
post #11

How is this dissimilar to the Ukrainian "Spider Web" attack on the Russian TU-22M and TU-95 aircraft? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Spiderweb

I keep wondering if this is a preview of the future. If I were a nation state looking to initiate hostilities, how "easy" it would be to have a handful of kamikaze drones discretely built and distributed around juicy targets. Radar, AA, expensive jets, core infrastructure. All attacked as part of an opening salvo which could cripple the enemy's forces on the first day.

The US learnt this lesson over 80 years ago with the simultaneous attacks on Pearl Harbour, Guam, Wake, Midway and the Philippines.

The difference is these days satellite surveillance makes it harder to secretly move military forces into place. Drone carrying cargo ships is the biggest risk.

Re: War game exposed U.S. vulnerability to low-tech warfare

#36
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't even know how an aircraft carrier would begin to defend itself against an onslaught of thousands of drones. $13 billion dollar military toybox? Let’s think. EMP. Nets. Defensive Drones. Superdome. Finding the solution isn’t hard - choosing and implementing it takes time when you’re a stumbling behemoth.

> Finding the solution isn’t hard Finding a solution isn't hard until your adversary adjusts their tacts slightly and bypasses it a week later

Right.

So, better be Agile, and have segmented groups doing really different things in different regions,

not taking 10-25 years to develop new overpriced platforms

while World Wars are being fought on DJI.

Re: War game exposed U.S. vulnerability to low-tech warfare

#37
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't even know how an aircraft carrier would begin to defend itself against an onslaught of thousands of drones. $13 billion dollar military toybox? Let’s think. EMP. Nets. Defensive Drones. Superdome. Finding the solution isn’t hard - choosing and implementing it takes time when you’re a stumbling behemoth.

what is a superdome?

Giant metal cover, maybe like an eyelid.

See also: NFL stadiums in the US

Re: War game exposed U.S. vulnerability to low-tech warfare

#38
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't even know how an aircraft carrier would begin to defend itself against an onslaught of thousands of drones. $13 billion dollar military toybox? Let’s think. EMP. Nets. Defensive Drones. Superdome. Finding the solution isn’t hard - choosing and implementing it takes time when you’re a stumbling behemoth.

I suppose everyone is going to want some really good goggles before they turn on some laser based CIWS replacement!

Right. It’s a $10+ billion dollar asset.

Melty-laser systems look cheap, compared to losing that even once.

Re: War game exposed U.S. vulnerability to low-tech warfare

#39

Feels like the title needs some sort of "2002" notice - the reporting is recent but the actual wargame was done in 2002 and only recently declassified. So, of course, the US military's vulnerability has only increased in spades since 2002 due to drones. All those bases in the Middle East that were supposed to help protect the countries where they were based were just ripe targets. I think more critically, most of the…

And yet, in a recent conflict of the US navy vs swarms of drones, no ships were lost.

Re: War game exposed U.S. vulnerability to low-tech warfare

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Shahed is only useful against stationary soft targets, which an aircraft carrier is not. It also doesn’t have the kind of heavy warhead or terminal guidance required to defeat the armored structure of naval ships. Shahed doesn’t have any kind of countermeasure avoidance. Adding these would massively increase the cost. Naval anti-ship drones have been around for many decades. This is a highly evolved area of militar…

Modern Shaheds can be controlled through satellite links like StarLink, with high quality video. Also, targeting a large pile of metal in the sea should not be difficult with something like a radar.

This underestimates the requirements. It requires sophisticated real-time terminal guidance. This is not a cheap feature. Modern anti-ship drones dynamically select a precise point of impact based on their observation of the target to maximize probability of hitting a vulnerable spot. Especially with a weak warhead like the Shahed, most points of impact would be scratching the paint.

The model you are talking about was basically how things worked in the 1970s. Technology has improved a lot over the last half century.

Post reply on HN