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The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

derekthompson.org

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Re: The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

#31

Post by Balgair »

> “Do you know how hard you need to abuse a mammal to make them not have children?”

I've worked with mammals from gerbils to dogs fro research. And, yeah, it is really hard to get a mammal to not to want to reproduce (you can go snip-snip, of course). Humans are not like other mammals, of course, we have 'reason' and the like, but still.

I think that little quote is really doing a lot of load bearing in the fertility crisis debates.

Humans, as I am sure we are all aware, really really like reproducing. The other things that come with it are, of course, the issue that stop us from completing the 'job'. But, even things like access to contraception do nothing to the falling birthrate. It's not the prophylactics, it's the participants.

We talk here about the cost of a kid, and rebuttals about Norway abound. The cultural conditions, and then someone mentions Mongolia or Israel. The support afterwards, and then you talk about Sweden. This structure, that structure, this exception, that exception. How we need a recipe not a single policy to fix the birthrate. And still nothing works.

Suffice to say: We are being really badly abused.

Want to fix the birthrate? It's a whole-ass thing where you have to change the whole-ass culture so much that people actually want to just have kids. I know that seems tautological, but like, it's just true. We just have gotta stop hurting each other.

Re: The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

#32

Post by roysting »

usrnm wrote: post #11

Personally, I see no reason to be alarmed. Humanity has been growing at an absolutely batshit crazy rate for the past hundred years, even the doomsday Thanos-level event that halves the population of the planet overnight would just bring us to the level of mere 50 years ago (the main reason I never understood the logic behind the whole Thanos idea). This growth must stop at some point and maybe even correct itself, i…

I would agree, but that perspective overlooks many different secondary effects. Essentially it’s a matter of that we have the tiger by the tail and your perspective basically just says, “hey, just let go of the tail. It was fine when we didn’t have the tiger by the tail and most of our lives we have not held the tiger by the tail, so it can’t really be all that bad of we just let go.”

If you prefer, adapt the “deal with the devil” metaphor. Same difference.

It ignores that there are massive dependencies once you commit to bad ideas. It is an inherent and possibly catastrophic oversight of all the “globalism” that has been pushed so far and for so long now, i.e., centralization and brittleness rather than decentralization and resilience.

People here hopefully can appreciate that when you create an extremely vulnerable and brittle monolithic system, it tends to fail in catastrophic ways rather than contained and manageable, when your concerns are separated and functionality is modular.

Ironically somewhat, even and especially in the tech industry and this kind of world domination VC swamp YC/HN is a part of has built exactly the opposite, a huge basket into which they want to put all the eggs they’ve accumulated, but because they are convinced of their superiority, they believe THEY are the ones who have figured everything out… If only people will slow them to control everything.

It’s not really any different than all the other impulses throughout history of narcissistic maniacs to centralize power and control around them. Things have been relatively not catastrophic in the world for around 90 years now, it looks that the same sick, supremacist, megalomaniac, psychopathic, narcissistic types of people are gaining the upper hand again and will in fact start something that may very well be called WWIII by anyone that survives.

I’m sure it will be fine and work out splendidly this time though, the super superior people are in control now. We have nothing to worry about.

Re: The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

#33

Post by readthenotes1 »

cl0ckt0wer wrote: post #2

if you want a thing, pay for it. the economics of childrearing aren't workable for most people without a huge cut to standard of living.

Are they paying for it in the countries with high birth rates? I don't think so...

Re: The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

#35

Post by thefz »

Balgair wrote: post #31

> “Do you know how hard you need to abuse a mammal to make them not have children?” I've worked with mammals from gerbils to dogs fro research. And, yeah, it is really hard to get a mammal to not to want to reproduce (you can go snip-snip, of course). Humans are not like other mammals, of course, we have 'reason' and the like, but still. I think that little quote is really doing a lot of load bearing in the fertility…

> I've worked with mammals from gerbils to dogs fro research. And, yeah, it is really hard to get a mammal to not to want to reproduce

I think you are confusing mating with reproduction.

The latter comes in the natural world as a consequence of the first.

There is zero drive to reproduce in animals, only to mate.

Re: The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

#36

Post by John23832 »

gota wrote: post #15

This is "only" a crisis in the sense that our current economies break down if the influx of new consumers slows down. We'll adapt. Won't be painless, but it is not catastrophic, at least not in the same sense that climate change is catastrophic > “Do you know how hard you need to abuse a mammal to make them not have children?” If you asked Leahy what the explanation was, “my answer is technology,” he said. “My answer…

Even if you remove the economic interests, human society has always worked with the young taking care of the old. We're reaching the point where there is no more young. That's a problem.

A 20 year old was made 20 years ago.

Re: The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

#37

Post by basch »

John23832 wrote: post #36
gota wrote: post #15

This is "only" a crisis in the sense that our current economies break down if the influx of new consumers slows down. We'll adapt. Won't be painless, but it is not catastrophic, at least not in the same sense that climate change is catastrophic > “Do you know how hard you need to abuse a mammal to make them not have children?” If you asked Leahy what the explanation was, “my answer is technology,” he said. “My answer…

Even if you remove the economic interests, human society has always worked with the young taking care of the old. We're reaching the point where there is no more young. That's a problem. A 20 year old was made 20 years ago.

except automation and technology multiplying labor, right? isnt the point of all this innovation to do more with less. are you saying that fewer people, with the assistance of robots, cant provide food, medicine, shelter, and water to the aging?

Re: The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

#38

Post by ponector »

Filligree wrote: post #10
cl0ckt0wer wrote: post #2

if you want a thing, pay for it. the economics of childrearing aren't workable for most people without a huge cut to standard of living.

The countries that do pay for it don’t have significantly higher fertility rates. I’d say there’s an elephant in the room: Childbirth sucks. If you want women to willingly subject themselves to that, you need either a culture that virtually requires it- And I want to take a moment to emphasise that I don’t like nor want this solution, and would fight anyone who tries for it. -or you need to pay them well above the ac…

What countries are actually paying any significant amount? 200€ per month would not cover costs of rising a kid.

Re: The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

#39

Post by binary132 »

basch wrote: post #37
John23832 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you remove the economic interests, human society has always worked with the young taking care of the old. We're reaching the point where there is no more young. That's a problem. A 20 year old was made 20 years ago.

except automation and technology multiplying labor, right? isnt the point of all this innovation to do more with less. are you saying that fewer people, with the assistance of robots, cant provide food, medicine, shelter, and water to the aging?

do you have any idea how much human labor elder care takes? caring for cognitively impaired but otherwise functioning human beings is a full time++ job, often for more than one person depending on the individual. there’s a reason they keep old folks loaded.

Re: The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

#40

Post by binary132 »

Filligree wrote: post #10
cl0ckt0wer wrote: post #2

if you want a thing, pay for it. the economics of childrearing aren't workable for most people without a huge cut to standard of living.

The countries that do pay for it don’t have significantly higher fertility rates. I’d say there’s an elephant in the room: Childbirth sucks. If you want women to willingly subject themselves to that, you need either a culture that virtually requires it- And I want to take a moment to emphasise that I don’t like nor want this solution, and would fight anyone who tries for it. -or you need to pay them well above the ac…

please point out the country which pays for adequate housing and other necessities for a family with 4 children, adequate childcare support (or pays one parent to stay at home fulltime), and sufficient guaranteed sick leave.
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