The promise of AI is in doing things at all that couldn't be automated before, at least economically. And when you find a use case where a bit of automated inference is sufficient and can replace human inference, it can wildly speed up a process, from when Susan has time for it, to right now.
I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
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Re: I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
#32It’s amazing to see some people talk with 100% confidence about the macro view of AI assisted development when we have had strong coding agents available for less than a year.
Re: I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
> AI is unveiling how the bureaucracy is the slow part. Computing has been doing that for decades. If your process is fucked, computers make it fucked faster. It’s just that now, we have entire generations alive that have never seem a world without digital computers. ~LLMs~ AI is a fun new lever in some uses so clearly it is finally the hammer that will drive the screws and bolts for us, with less effort on our part!…
Completely agree. It amazes me how some folks think AI is unlike any other technology revolution. History repeats.
You're right it's just like any other mechanization/automation revolution. Except it's not.
It's happening about 10x faster than any other I've seen or read about.
Conceive how long it took just to get barcode scanners rolled out in grocery stores. Or direct payment terminals. Or how many decades it's been getting robotics into the manufacturing of cars at scale. I worked through the .com boom and I can tell you that "webification" took 10 years or more for most businesses (and many of them now just gave up and just have a Facebook page instead etc)
This is a little insane what's happening now. It really does change everything. People who don't work in software I don't think have any idea what's coming.
Re: I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
#34On the one hand, this is a clean post that explains exactly what a lot of us have been thinking and seeing on the job at large organizations doing tech work. Dear Author, I agree with you 110% and want everybody else to come to understand what you have written. On the other hand, it feels like we've been over this tens of times recently, on HN specifically and IRL at work. Another blog post isn't going to convince le…
Sadly I think you’re right. I even shy away from sharing these types of posts at work because it feels like anything that doesn’t mesh with the status quo isn’t received well.
Re: I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
#35Delivering more complete details for a task at hand is a noble goal, but there is a problem.
Programming is a logical circuit breaker. There is a wide range of incompleteness that halts development or puts the solutions in an unpublishable state.
A product person has no compiler, no RAM, no database, no state machine. There is nothing that can fail. There are probably strategies to weed out some issues, but none will be perfect.
We need to combine reality with computers. Computers set the constraints and we can only check if we are in bounds of the constraints by solving the problems with computers.
Oddly enough AI has so far nothing to offer to improve the "product people" problems.
Re: I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
#36I think when LLMs first came out people thought they could just say something like, "Make a Facebook clone". But now we're realizing we need to be more exact with our requirements and define things better. That has always been the bottle neck in software. When I was working we used to get requirements that literally said things like, "Get data and give it to the user". No definition of what data is, where its stored,…
> I think when LLMs first came out people thought they could just say something like, "Make a Facebook clone". But now we're realizing we need to be more exact with our requirements and define things better. That has always been the bottle neck in software. This was substantially predicted by Fred Brooks in 1986 in the classic No Silver Bullets [1] essay under the sections "Expert Systems" and "Automatic Programming"…
It's interesting how predictable some of this is.
The LLMs turn out fully formed clones of stuff for which there exists copious amounts of code openly searchable on the web doing the exact same thing.
LLMs require developer-like specification, task/subtask breakdown and detail where such example code already exists.
As a professional prior to LLMs, how many problems that you work on have many existing free solutions but you neglected to use that code and decided to spend days doing it yourself?
Re: I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
#37cars are not faster than horses
Re: I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
#38I think when LLMs first came out people thought they could just say something like, "Make a Facebook clone". But now we're realizing we need to be more exact with our requirements and define things better. That has always been the bottle neck in software. When I was working we used to get requirements that literally said things like, "Get data and give it to the user". No definition of what data is, where its stored,…
We now have product owners trying to farm out their work to an LLM. The process didn’t work before because the person writing the requirements either put out vague requirements or bad requirements because they didn’t understand the business intent (or were careless). LLMs just take the same vague or poor requirements and make them look believable until you dig in to them.
Plausible requirement generators as inputs to plausible code generators.. what could go wrong!
Re: I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
#39I think when LLMs first came out people thought they could just say something like, "Make a Facebook clone". But now we're realizing we need to be more exact with our requirements and define things better. That has always been the bottle neck in software. When I was working we used to get requirements that literally said things like, "Get data and give it to the user". No definition of what data is, where its stored,…
It's worse. Vague requirements still only power vague interpretations of the problem. Even if you provide good requirements, you still only have vague interpretations at your fingertips. The promise is that such things won't be a problem in the future, which is obviously not materialising.
"Make a facebook clone" is the vague human promise to the end user. The reality is that it leads to so many assumptions which are insurmountable due to the vague interpretation so you have to change your requirements in the end to claim success.
Thus everything turns into a mediocre compromise. There is no exceptional outcome, which is what makes a marketable product. There are just corpses everywhere.
You need something better to both define requirements and implement them than this technology.
Re: I don't think AI will make your processes go faster
#40[flagged]