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The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

theatlantic.com

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Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#31

Post by garciasn »

tux3 wrote: post #20
bcjdjsndon wrote: post #2

> They want to replace workers A simple question none of the ai-doomsayers can answer... who buys anything when nobody has a job cos robots do everything?

The true AI doomsayers believe in some sort of technological singularity, which means a point after which things become so strange that the world is radically transformed. Things like "jobs" and "careers" are so integral to society that we can't really imagine what society would be like in a world where people don't have any clear purpose. That's why you won't get a definitive answer. The whole idea of a singularity…

I’m always amazed that when I tell people I intend to retire in my 50s, they tell me that I can’t possibly mean that and actively wonder how I could possibly fill my time. It’s as if we could not possibly function as humans without meaningless shifting of tangible/intangibles from one place to another.

Society is so hellbent on the idea that we need our job to be our identity, they lack the imagination for another other reality.

It’s ridiculous.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#32

Post by lbrito »

bcjdjsndon wrote: post #2

> They want to replace workers A simple question none of the ai-doomsayers can answer... who buys anything when nobody has a job cos robots do everything?

the answer to every question: Agents, of course! With GPU-collaterized credit or some other idiocy.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#33

Post by visarga »

tux3 wrote: post #20
bcjdjsndon wrote: post #2

> They want to replace workers A simple question none of the ai-doomsayers can answer... who buys anything when nobody has a job cos robots do everything?

The true AI doomsayers believe in some sort of technological singularity, which means a point after which things become so strange that the world is radically transformed. Things like "jobs" and "careers" are so integral to society that we can't really imagine what society would be like in a world where people don't have any clear purpose. That's why you won't get a definitive answer. The whole idea of a singularity…

It can't happen. For one - if it did happen it would mean all domains reach singularity at once, but we know the capability curve is jagged. Each domain advances at its own speed.

Second - the more you make progress, the harder it gets, exponentially harder. Maybe Newton could advance physics observing an apple fall, today they need space telescopes and billion dollar particle accelerators. The more tech advances, the harder it is. Will AGI be so "super" to cancel out exponentials?

And third - the AI progress is tied to learning signal, and we have exhausted the available data. In the last 1-2 years we have started using verified synthetic data (RLVR) but exponential difficulty is a barrier. Other domains don't even have built in verifiability like math and code. So there the progress will be slower. Testing a vaccine to be safe takes 6 months for 1 bit of information - that is how slow and expensive it can get in some domains. AI can't get the learning signal it needs across all domains fast enough.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#34

Post by mrhottakes »

skybrian wrote: post #13
thomascgalvin wrote: post #5

People like Altman and Musk are saying that Universal Basic Income will be necessary once AI has fully automated away most jobs, but at the same time they aggressively fight against any kind of tax policy that would allow UBI to function. I am convinced that their talk of UBI is just handwaving; they're trying to convince us that there will be a solution to the destruction of the economy as we know it, so that we'll…

What’s an example where they took a side on taxes?

Elon's companies famously pay very little in taxes, he spent last year attempting to gut the federal government, he complains constantly about how much he pays in taxes, and he's been very vocal about California's recent efforts to tax very wealthy people.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#35

Post by lbrito »

otikik wrote: post #11

My main problem is this: - If (big If) AI actually replaces workers, then we have a problem, because lots of folk lost their jobs - If AI doesn't replace workers, then we have a recession, because a lot of the US economy now sits on top of corporations betting on it. And this will tank the economy and lots of folk will lose their jobs It feels that the only path forward is a narrow one where AI removes some jobs , bu…

Its probably a combination of both. Also, the "lots of folk" in the two scenarios are probably different orders of magnitude.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#36

Post by mrhottakes »

cjs_ac wrote: post #22

> Already, as many as a quarter of Americans seem accepting of violence as a tool for achieving political change. I'm surprised it's only a quarter: violence as a tool for achieving political change is the entire point of the right to bear arms. EDIT: I'm not arguing for or against political violence, just noting an apparent inconsistency between Americans' views and one of the documents that they talk about as thoug…

It's 100% accurate to say that the history of the United States is filled to the brim with political change via violence.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#38

Post by empath75 »

otikik wrote: post #11

My main problem is this: - If (big If) AI actually replaces workers, then we have a problem, because lots of folk lost their jobs - If AI doesn't replace workers, then we have a recession, because a lot of the US economy now sits on top of corporations betting on it. And this will tank the economy and lots of folk will lose their jobs It feels that the only path forward is a narrow one where AI removes some jobs , bu…

There is a third and, to me, so much more likely outcome that it's not even worth talking about the other two: AI makes workers more productive and unlocks more economic activity.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#39

Post by gypsy_boots »

bcjdjsndon wrote: post #2

> They want to replace workers A simple question none of the ai-doomsayers can answer... who buys anything when nobody has a job cos robots do everything?

Take any econ 101 course, and you'll realize that this isn't a factor in the capitalist system. Capitalism is simply concerned with maximizing profit, and in this case, returning shareholder value. It's just simply not in the purview of the system to think about what happens when you completely get rid of your labor force.

Envisioned another way, the future of labor might look the way it did for laborers over 100 years ago, before major industries unionized; making 'Amazon-bucks' that can only be redeemed at the 'Amazon company store'.

Re: The AI Backlash Could Get Ugly

#40

Post by mrhottakes »

ryanackley wrote: post #10
bcjdjsndon wrote: post #2

> They want to replace workers A simple question none of the ai-doomsayers can answer... who buys anything when nobody has a job cos robots do everything?

It's bizarre that some of the doomsayers are AI stakeholders. It's like they don't realize that most people don't have net worth in the 7-8 figures. I console myself with the fact that without a functioning economy, AI will implode since capital will dry up. Then all of the investment in data centers, R&D, etc. will never be recovered. Then we'll be back to rational thinking? Maybe?

They realize it, and they don't care.
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