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European Stagnation Is Real

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31–34 of 34 posts

Re: European Stagnation Is Real

#31
post #16

How do you disentangle the factors that go into productivity? The US is a net oil exporter, has the global reserve currency, and runs the most important stock exchange, among many other factors. How much heavy lifting is done by oil, by currency, by historical happenstance, versus by deliberate policy?

Productivity in economics is different from the colloquial definition. Productivity in this case means economic output (usually GDP) divided across working population. As such, variables for productivity can be identified via back-of-the-napkin math, and in America's case is largely due to the rise of the tech and biotech industry along with Obama and Biden era protection for core industrial sectors like automotive,…

I don't know if back of the napkin maths helps understand exactly what the US is doing right.

You can point to a sector with high GDP, sure. But US tech ascendancy has its roots in DARPA spending around the bay area, which was enabled by US economic and military supremacy, which was in turn driven by the US having a lot of oil and staying out of WW2 and a host of other factors.

I agree with the point that investment vs austerity looks more impactful than the history of DARPA spending, but I just find economic analysis an overwhelming problem to even think about.

Re: European Stagnation Is Real

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bussed tables at one time. Like 25 years ago I think. Pretty much everyone has done some crappy job. But I was not bid away from bussing tables to write code, I was not really bid away from bussing tables for anything because nobody is bidding on table bussers to go work on anything at all.

> Pretty much everyone has done some crappy job. you'd think so, but a lot of HN went to places like MIT and then straight into FAANG. Or Perdue and then into MechEng jobs, etc. etc. Is one of the reasons why you see some of the hot takes at HN -- homeboy never had to pay his rent waiting tables or cutting grass.

I'm still thinking a lot of HN probably amounts to a relatively big amount like 12% which still means pretty much everyone, even on HN, probably did some crappy job. Also a lot of people, in non-HN pop, do crappy jobs and still end up with those hot takes.

Re: European Stagnation Is Real

#33
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Productivity in economics is different from the colloquial definition. Productivity in this case means economic output (usually GDP) divided across working population. As such, variables for productivity can be identified via back-of-the-napkin math, and in America's case is largely due to the rise of the tech and biotech industry along with Obama and Biden era protection for core industrial sectors like automotive,…

I don't know if back of the napkin maths helps understand exactly what the US is doing right. You can point to a sector with high GDP, sure. But US tech ascendancy has its roots in DARPA spending around the bay area, which was enabled by US economic and military supremacy, which was in turn driven by the US having a lot of oil and staying out of WW2 and a host of other factors. I agree with the point that investment…

The EU and the US had a comparable GDP and population size around 2007. The gap between European and American performance only arose in the 2008-13 period when the GFC and Eurozone Crisis occured.

As such, it is important to dig into how the US and the EU approached these crises, as both took entirely different approaches.

The crux of the EU's laggard performance arose during that period.

Re: European Stagnation Is Real

#34
The whole premise of this rebuttal is wrong in a self serving way.

Purchasing power and income are meaningless without accounting for what needs to be bought.

Americans can make high incomes for decades only to be bank d by medical debt. Having to own a car per household member can add thousands to monthly outgoings and is common in many places. Even schooling, which should be free, isn’t when sports cost thousands per year and parents are required to furnish their kids classrooms with books, pens and paper.

I am a US/European dual citizen. American wealth is an illusion. Average Northern Europeans are much better off in real terms.

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