Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 116 posts

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#31

Post by CGMthrowaway »

ribosometronome wrote: post #22

Any lawyers able to comment on the actual wording of the resolution? It kind of reads to me like in their effort to narrowly capture just prediction markets like Kalshi but not stock markets, they've perhaps unintentionally barred themselves from some other unintended things, too. https://www.moreno.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/FIL... >No Member of the Senate may enter into, or offer to enter into, an agreem…

This is rules of the Senate, not law, so everything is up to interpretation by the Ethics Committee. And we know how that goes

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#33

Post by blazespin »

knollimar wrote: post #27
ribosometronome wrote: post #22

Any lawyers able to comment on the actual wording of the resolution? It kind of reads to me like in their effort to narrowly capture just prediction markets like Kalshi but not stock markets, they've perhaps unintentionally barred themselves from some other unintended things, too. https://www.moreno.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/FIL... >No Member of the Senate may enter into, or offer to enter into, an agreem…

What about options and futures?

No, because that's real money.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#34

Post by jlarocco »

giarc wrote: post #8
danesparza wrote: post #3

ANY government employee or government contract worker should be banned from trading on prediction markets.

The US federal workforce is ~2.2 million people. Banning them all from trading on prediction markets isn't the right move. A cafeteria worker in some suburban admin office likely has no inside information they are going to trade on. Members of congress and other high level positions on the other hand should be banned.

I don't agree. When the senators walk into the cafeteria talking about the bill they're about to pass, the cafeteria worker can easily overhear their insider information.

Avoiding insider trading on prediction markets seems like an intractable problem to me.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#36

Post by blazespin »

perfectstorm wrote: post #20

good. and the restriction shouldn’t stop at U.S. Senators. anyone with a major influence in their field should be banned from using these prediction/betting apps. as an NBA fan, I was shocked when I saw the reports about Milwaukee star Giannis allegedly using Kalshi to “predict” his own future team during the last NBA trade deadline. how is that even allowed? he even went on to promote the prediction app the day afte…

Pure gaslighting. The PM panic is because people want to look like they 'care' about corrupt trading. It's peanuts compared to the 500M they were betting on oil futures.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#37

Post by jadbox »

perfectstorm wrote: post #20

good. and the restriction shouldn’t stop at U.S. Senators. anyone with a major influence in their field should be banned from using these prediction/betting apps. as an NBA fan, I was shocked when I saw the reports about Milwaukee star Giannis allegedly using Kalshi to “predict” his own future team during the last NBA trade deadline. how is that even allowed? he even went on to promote the prediction app the day afte…

Note that this is just a code of conduct change for the ethics committee, not a law. Something is better than nothing.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#38

Post by bitshiftfaced »

Prediction markets have realized that they will lose potential customers if they don't prevent insider trading. Kalshi already has a policy banning politicians from trading. Presumably they understand this, so while I'm glad to see the rule, I wouldn't say it's that self-sacrificing.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#39

Post by vjvjvjvjghv »

verst wrote: post #10
danesparza wrote: post #3

ANY government employee or government contract worker should be banned from trading on prediction markets.

In theory as a government employee you already fear getting in trouble with OGE (Office of Government Ethics) and in normal times this is truly enough. Nobody wants to have a conflict of interest or fail to disclose investments etc. However nothing is normal under the current administration...

Ethics rules only apply to the lower ranks and as far I know, they are quite strict. Once you move up the chain, most rules become optional.
Post reply on HN