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If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

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Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#31

Post by mahkoh »

hx8 wrote: post #17

Hello, Blue Presser here. We learn something about humanity based on the results of the poll. It's naive to think that 100% of people will press the red button. Some people will die if red wins. I think pressing red is selfish and violent, in that it can result in the death of human life by their own unwillingness to cooperate. If we are not willing to work together in order to protect each other then I have a very p…

You're a single parent. Through divine intervention you know that your 5 year old child has already pressed the red button. Are you going to press the blue button and risk your child becoming an orphan in a selfish and violent world? Or do you sacrifice the lives of billions to save your child from this inconvenience?

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#32

Post by blululu »

rbren wrote: post #9

Considerations: * many people (at least toddlers, people with dementia) are going to press blue roughly by accident. See the lizardman constant * other people will not want to be responsible for any deaths and will press blue out of a sense of moral imperative * many other people are going to take this into account and vote blue out of hopes we can save everyone You should vote blue.

The first point is interesting. You could fork the question over this and have a few variants:

1.) The pure form where the button presses and restricted to legal agents (i.e. people with credible legal standing over their choices). 2.) The mixed form with the caveat listed here inclusive of all humans whether they are even physically capable of pushing a button. 3.) you could also go for a more expansive scenario that takes 2 to the extreme and includes animals as well.

1.) gets to the game theoretic form of the question. 2 muddies things, and 3 sets up a case for blue since the non agentic voters asymptote to 50-50 and a slim edge is morally preferable to killing half.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#33

Post by jonkho »

wavemode wrote: post #11

This is like a prisoner's dilemma, but with no payoff for the risky option. In a prisoner's dilemma, you can choose a risky option (stay quiet), but the potential reward is that if the other prisoner also stays quiet then you both go completely free. But if one prisoner instead speaks up and accuses the other prisoner, the accuser gets a short sentence and the one who stayed quiet gets a max sentence. But in this sce…

The dilemma is that there are some people who are not smart enough to understand this and will press blue.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#34

Post by shiandow »

rayiner wrote: post #4

I like this framing: > Every person in the world is provided a gun. If a person wants to, they can shoot themselves in the head. However, these guns are special so that if more than 50% people in the world shoot themselves in the head, the guns will all jam and everyone will survive. Or, the person can choose to set the gun down and walk away.

What makes this framing especially interesting is that it suddenly makes perfect sense to just lay down the gun.

Until you remember the millions of children in the exact same scenario.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#35

Post by owenpalmer »

hx8 wrote: post #17

Hello, Blue Presser here. We learn something about humanity based on the results of the poll. It's naive to think that 100% of people will press the red button. Some people will die if red wins. I think pressing red is selfish and violent, in that it can result in the death of human life by their own unwillingness to cooperate. If we are not willing to work together in order to protect each other then I have a very p…

> It's naive to think that 100% of people will press the red button.

Those who press the blue button are trying to save those who press the blue button. If they weren't trying to save each other, they wouldn't have to.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#37

Post by bennettnate5 »

eesmith wrote: post #7

These sorts of problems assume that actions have no consequences beyond the immediate decision. These tests, run in places which have higher long-term expectation of social connections, give different results than in the US. In the world where I don't want to live in that world, so blue for me. And it's the fault of everyone who pressed red should I die.

This doesn't seem to be a game that tries to be particularly clever--one button could kill you, the other certainly won't. Trusting that nearly everyone will avoid pressing the button that could kill them seems a reasonable assumption, and it's not necessarily an indication of a lack of altruism.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#38

Post by empthought »

mahkoh wrote: post #31
hx8 wrote: post #17

Hello, Blue Presser here. We learn something about humanity based on the results of the poll. It's naive to think that 100% of people will press the red button. Some people will die if red wins. I think pressing red is selfish and violent, in that it can result in the death of human life by their own unwillingness to cooperate. If we are not willing to work together in order to protect each other then I have a very p…

You're a single parent. Through divine intervention you know that your 5 year old child has already pressed the red button. Are you going to press the blue button and risk your child becoming an orphan in a selfish and violent world? Or do you sacrifice the lives of billions to save your child from this inconvenience?

That’s not the thought experiment.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#39

Post by chias »

vmg12 wrote: post #26
wavemode wrote: post #11

This is like a prisoner's dilemma, but with no payoff for the risky option. In a prisoner's dilemma, you can choose a risky option (stay quiet), but the potential reward is that if the other prisoner also stays quiet then you both go completely free. But if one prisoner instead speaks up and accuses the other prisoner, the accuser gets a short sentence and the one who stayed quiet gets a max sentence. But in this sce…

The dilemma is that a lot of people will press blue so if red gets above 50% a large number of selfless but not game-theory aware people will die.

but why would anybody choose blue? there is no moral benefit to doing so.

If you altered the game to say that only some fraction of the population get the choice, and everyone who doesn't get the choice is assumed blue (or, is killed if less than 50% of voters choose blue) then there's some question to be explored here. But at it stands there is literally no reason to choose blue.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#40

Post by aldanor »

wavemode wrote: post #11

This is like a prisoner's dilemma, but with no payoff for the risky option. In a prisoner's dilemma, you can choose a risky option (stay quiet), but the potential reward is that if the other prisoner also stays quiet then you both go completely free. But if one prisoner instead speaks up and accuses the other prisoner, the accuser gets a short sentence and the one who stayed quiet gets a max sentence. But in this sce…

Exactly, if choosing blue would allow you to wear a blue badge which would raise your happiness level or otherwise affect your utility function, then it might make sense. Otherwise it just doesn't.
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