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ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

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Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#31

Post by sbarre »

scotty79 wrote: post #26
simne wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because very large share of market now are datacenters. Difference from desktop is dramatic - for desktop really acceptable very simple chips with bad energy efficiency, but DCs already deal with extremely high power consumption, as they typically "compress" so much consumption in one rack, that constantly working near to physical constraints.

You can't make desktop computer 4 times larger but there's very little preventing you form putting 4 racks where you had 1 before. If the floor space is the expensive part of data center then probably some incentives are misaligned.

Bigger chips = more distance to cover for your electrons = more power required = more generated heat = slower throughput for your data.

Surely you don't believe that the entire chip industry had not thought of "wait what if we just make the chips bigger".

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#32

Post by Rexxar »

bob1029 wrote: post #8
ForHackernews wrote: post #5

They might be the most complex mass-produced commercial machines but the Large Hadron Collider has a plausible claim to the title of "world's most complex machine" https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/103591-la...

I think something like this wins that category: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Interconnection

It's strange to count this as single machine. But if we go this way, the north Chinese interconnection and the continental Europe interconnection are bigger (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide_area_synchronous_grid).

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#33

Post by alfiedotwtf »

maxalbarello wrote: post #14
jasode wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Veritasium video is good but their "newscast" style with constant back-and-forth cuts to talking heads can make the presentation a bit disjointed. The more straightforward video of ASML EUV is from Branch Education: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2482h_TNwg Because that vid gives an overview of the whole machine, it gives context to what each scientist is talking about in the Veritasium interviews.

Thank you! The video you recommended definitely goes more in depth. I still like Veritasium's style more but it's just personal preference ofc

Yeah… when I’m eating breakfast, a lecture is not what I’m after. I watched that Veritasium video a while back and was glued to it. Any other presentation style and I probably would have completely skipped it (thinking I’ll watch it another time knowing I would never go back to it).

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#34

Post by moffkalast »

sbarre wrote: post #31
scotty79 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't make desktop computer 4 times larger but there's very little preventing you form putting 4 racks where you had 1 before. If the floor space is the expensive part of data center then probably some incentives are misaligned.

Bigger chips = more distance to cover for your electrons = more power required = more generated heat = slower throughput for your data. Surely you don't believe that the entire chip industry had not thought of "wait what if we just make the chips bigger".

AMD hiding Threadripper behind their back: Uh yeah what a terrible idea, we definitely didn't actually do that. Making a CPU that's twice the size, how ridiculous would that be right?!

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#35

Post by svantana »

hackrmn wrote: post #28

> These machines are roughly the size of double-decker buses. To ship one requires 40 freight containers, three cargo planes, and 20 trucks. They are the world’s most complex objects. Each contains over one hundred thousand components, all of which have to be perfectly calibrated for the machine to produce light consistently at the right wavelength. As a software engineer by trade, the above parable communicates to m…

Indeed, all this reminds me of the marvel that is mechanical timekeeping - incredibly complex engineering that would ultimately be surpassed by dirt cheap electronics.

What is the corresponding revolution in chip production? I imagine something like FPGAs for litography - a wafer that can somehow work on another wafer in a sandwich-like configuration. Such a process could potentially improve on each iteration and thus get very good, very fast.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#36

Post by Someone »

maxalbarello wrote: post #21
mytailorisrich wrote: post #11

It is unavoidable that, at some point, China will have its own matching or better machine because they obviously how incredibly strategically important it is.

i find it hard to believe that there is no equivalent anywhere else in the world. there is so much talent out there and the stakes are so high that it seems like an inevitability. whatever many secrets are involved, information wants to be free and it's hard to believe that others won't figure it out. by the time they do catch up we better be steps ahead. what's after EUV?

High-NA EUV, apparently. https://www.reuters.com/business/asml-says-next-gen-euv-tool...:

- ASML's High-NA EUV machines ready for high-volume production

- Machines have processed 500,000 wafers, showing technical readiness

- Full integration into manufacturing expected in 2-3 years, ASML's CTO says

After that, it may be X-rays.

A disruptive step would be to move to 3D printing, but that (among other issues) is too slow at the moment. Maybe, ideas from nano robotics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanorobotics) can help there.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#38

Post by nextaccountic »

sbarre wrote: post #27
maxalbarello wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i find it hard to believe that there is no equivalent anywhere else in the world. there is so much talent out there and the stakes are so high that it seems like an inevitability. whatever many secrets are involved, information wants to be free and it's hard to believe that others won't figure it out. by the time they do catch up we better be steps ahead. what's after EUV?

Honestly I thought the same, but after watching a couple of videos on how EUV actually works, and what ASML (and the 1,200 other specialized companies that feed into its supply chain) built.. I can understand why you can't just take one apart and copy it. There's (apparently) 4 decades of accumulated cutting edge scientific research that has gone into these machines. I suspect the machinery, process and human experti…

Maybe copying it is too fragile (but I note that China copied the F-35)

But in this case the Chinese will just develop their own alternative, that might work as good or even better

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#39

Post by danielheath »

jstummbillig wrote: post #25

> By betting on extreme ultraviolet lithography long before it worked, ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips. Makes one wonder: Would we be much better off of worse off if we reshaped society to do more of things, where a new technology is unlikely to work but highly beneficial in the limits? Would we sooner have 10 additional ASMLs or waste a lot of resources?

I mean, it’s been tried; a reading of relevant historical texts would give you lots of ammunition to support either argument.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#40

Post by simne »

scotty79 wrote: post #26
simne wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because very large share of market now are datacenters. Difference from desktop is dramatic - for desktop really acceptable very simple chips with bad energy efficiency, but DCs already deal with extremely high power consumption, as they typically "compress" so much consumption in one rack, that constantly working near to physical constraints.

You can't make desktop computer 4 times larger but there's very little preventing you form putting 4 racks where you had 1 before. If the floor space is the expensive part of data center then probably some incentives are misaligned.

You cannot place dc anywhere, in large cities space is extremely constrained, and land is extremely expensive.

Also big problem - connectivity - you cannot place DC where it cannot be connected to power grid and to very powerful network.

So yes, DC floor space is severely limited.

And the third issue - last decades, rack servers dissipate extremely large amounts of heat, I hear numbers up to tens Kilowatts per rack, which is just hard to dissipate with air cooling (as example, all IBM Power servers have option of liquid cooling, but this is totally different price range).

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