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California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

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31–40 of 118 posts

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#31
> California's legislative leaders have known for months but did not make the issue public.

Why would they give up a chance to make more money from the people? The government never misses an opportunity to pad its coffers. Reminds me of the CA State Parks department, which squirreled away millions of dollars and then was crying about lack of funding and hence wanted to shut down some parks.

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#32
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your own link says CA spends less than UNESCO’s 15.0% standard. Also, you could frame this in a much more information dense way by making an active claim about something instead of just spamming a bunch of links.

A quick google search of the UNSECO target is "at least 15% of total public expenditure (or 4–6% of GDP)" and both the US (~5%) and California (~4-5% of gdp) already pass that criteria.

The UNESCO target is calibrated for developing countries. Few developed countries spend that much on non-tertiary education: https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/public-spending-on-e.... Canada spends about 3.3%, less than California.

(I think your numbers include tertiary education. My numbers are K-12 only. I’m not sure which of those the UNESCO target is based on.)

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#33
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your own link says CA spends less than UNESCO’s 15.0% standard. Also, you could frame this in a much more information dense way by making an active claim about something instead of just spamming a bunch of links.

A quick google search of the UNSECO target is "at least 15% of total public expenditure (or 4–6% of GDP)" and both the US (~5%) and California (~4-5% of gdp) already pass that criteria.

The confusion/disconnect between those two benchmarks suggests something about the size of CA's public expenditure...

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#34
post #17
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Or! People understand that everyone makes mistakes and firing anyone who does only leads to people prioritizing hiding their mistakes vs. fixing them. It’s helpful, whenever you find yourself saying something like, “the only real explanation to me”, to think of a good faith version before assuming that the most cynical take is reality.

[dead]

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#35

> California's legislative leaders have known for months but did not make the issue public. Why would they give up a chance to make more money from the people? The government never misses an opportunity to pad its coffers. Reminds me of the CA State Parks department, which squirreled away millions of dollars and then was crying about lack of funding and hence wanted to shut down some parks.

Fun fact: I recently vacationed in Hawaii and couldn’t help but notice, despite groceries costing about 2x, gas there is a dollar cheaper than at home in California. California just can’t get enough tax money.

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#36
"Gov. Newsom in January projected the state would have to grapple with a $2.9 billion shortfall. The confirmed miscalculation means that shortfall could be much smaller."

So, the title is just plain misleading.

California is less in deficit than they earlier calculated.

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#37
post #4

If you want a vivid illustration (from an adjacent state) about the impact of pessimistic fiscal projections: Oregon has an infamous "kicker" law that refunds income taxes collected in excess of projections (plus a 2% margin). The state faces the same budgetary challenges as California... but can't project too pessimistically lest it leave money off the table.

Oregon's kicker law is a textbook example of bad economic policy, sadly. It essentially means that in boom years the state can't accumulate any general funds for recessions, which is half of the point of a state-level political entity in the first place. Balanced budgets and pay as you go are fabulous over the medium term, but over the short term of a year or two during a disaster or recession, governmental spending…

> Oregon's kicker law is a textbook example of bad economic policy, sadly

You must be talking about non-economic textbooks, otherwise this makes no sense.

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#38
post #7

This is wild. A mistake of this magnitude should result in several positions becoming vacant and many politicians being ineligible for any future offices. If a government can’t budget accurately everything else they do is likely even less competent. Every number and statistic they report should be treated with suspicion. Without clear data who is to say they are doing anything helpful at all?

The errors were all within the CalPERS pension fund. The pensions are guaranteed by the state, so the fund is notorious for a complete lack of fiduciary duty, and these types of errors track with the general quality of their operation.

[deleted]

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#39
post #6

Given that school budgets are absolutely gutted with mass layoffs this year and next, and the miscalculation looks like 2/3 of the budget shortfall, hiding such a basic and impactful error requires a much better explanation than I see in that article. It looks like it was done to stifle debate about budget allocations, which would be necessary in the circumstances.

The education system seems one of the only places where vastly improving technology over the past 30 years has not translated to cost savings or improved outcomes.

Re: California has more money than projected after admin miscalculated state budget

#40
post #7

This is wild. A mistake of this magnitude should result in several positions becoming vacant and many politicians being ineligible for any future offices. If a government can’t budget accurately everything else they do is likely even less competent. Every number and statistic they report should be treated with suspicion. Without clear data who is to say they are doing anything helpful at all?

The errors were all within the CalPERS pension fund. The pensions are guaranteed by the state, so the fund is notorious for a complete lack of fiduciary duty, and these types of errors track with the general quality of their operation.

Alternatively, since we're spit balling, the administrators and/or accounting staff decided to strategically error on the side of a shortfall because its politically impossible to get the state to fully fund the pension obligations or to stop effectively raiding it.
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