Live data from Hacker News

The Closing of the Frontier

tanyaverma.sh

31–40 of 142 posts

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#31
post #20

The opportunity from the early days of the American frontier is not typical. Instead, it's the brief burst of unrestrained growth as a better-adapted organization (the US, software companies) expands into, and expands, a niche--cannibalizing the previous occupant (Native Americans, older stagnant companies.) At times growth is so rapid that individuals are able to advance the frontier, but if the field stagnates, ind…

Frontier mythology also hides quite a lot of tragedy and deaths too because of how many native Americans needed to die for it to be a frontier. It was not by any means unsettled land.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#32
I interpreted their "too dangerous to release" comment as a statement about the current situation. If the model is truly as capable as they say, and the security issues so numerous, it makes sense to hold out until the biggest targets have been patched.

It'd only take one company deciding to not worry about safety, to change the calculus back to "we have to release this to stay competitive".

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#34
post #8

> A 16-year-old with no credentials and no capital could just do things. The world of bits offered the freedom to build without being drowned in arbitrary constraints, in a way that didn’t require assembling vast capital or prestige or connections, where your creativity and work could speak for itself, and you had agency. This is now truer than it ever was.

The irony is that we've just shifted the complexity. Anyone can make something now, but since everyone is making things, now you need to compete on reach/distribution more aggressively. The new "capital" is social media juice and pre-AI rep. Same problem, different skin.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#35
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is it won’t be if these new models stay locked to the public.

We saw yesterday that expert orchestration around small, publicly available models can produce results on the level of the unreleased model. I take a contra view and instead see this as fuel on the fire for tinkering to squeeze advanced functionality out of more available things. It has always been like this, the amateur improvising tooling and equipment to outdo companies with comparably infinite resources.

>> We saw yesterday that expert orchestration around small, publicly available models can produce results on the level of the unreleased model.

This is false. Yesterday's article did not actually show this, and there are many comments in the discussion from actual security people (like tptacek) pointing that out.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#36
post #8

> A 16-year-old with no credentials and no capital could just do things. The world of bits offered the freedom to build without being drowned in arbitrary constraints, in a way that didn’t require assembling vast capital or prestige or connections, where your creativity and work could speak for itself, and you had agency. This is now truer than it ever was.

The point is it won’t be if these new models stay locked to the public.

It has always baffled me how quickly, and how voraciously, people started to rely on privately owned AI systems.

AI is not something discovered by scientists and plucked out of the ether. It's engineered and controlled, for profit, by corporations which have demographics and KPIs. These companies don't owe you anything, and they make no promises.

If you're running a business that deeply relies on AI, you might as well add Sam Altman to your board of directors--because he has just as much control over your company as you do. If they have a bad quarter and need to increase rates by 1000%, your choices are to pay up or shut down.

This Mythos situation is just the beginning. Not only do they have everyone hooked, but they've actively stalled the personal skill growth of millions of people who fell into vibe-coding rather than genuinely learning. And now they have that choice: Pay up, or shut down.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#37
post #8

> A 16-year-old with no credentials and no capital could just do things. The world of bits offered the freedom to build without being drowned in arbitrary constraints, in a way that didn’t require assembling vast capital or prestige or connections, where your creativity and work could speak for itself, and you had agency. This is now truer than it ever was.

This is so untrue - prestige and connections matter even more, now that work is being commoditised. no?

[deleted]

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#38
I doubt that Mythos is just so wonderful and not able to be replicated that we are actually being 'closed off' from frontier models.

For example, the people who Anthropic "trusts" with this "dangerous" model are a handful of fortune 500 companies? Seriously? Those are the people we trust?

We are going to have access to this within 6 months, and if we don't, someone else will offer an equivalent. Anthropic hasn't walked to the edge of the abyss only to be like "let the CEO's handle this!"

It is simply not the edge of the abyss.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#39
I think we are going to look at the era between 2019-2025 as a very rare blip in the history of public AI access. Regardless of whether fears about Mythos end up being justified, the clear trend is

1. AI models are becoming better and better at causing massively disruptive effects, leaving up larger and larger liabilities, especially as laws and regulations are being passed/proposed which would put the responsibility of some mass disruption/hacking event on the company which serves the model that made it possible

2. The relative advantage of serving an AI model for inference in exchange for money is waning compared to the advantage of using that model internally for purposes which accrue money/power/leverage for that AI company. Why serve a model at 30 dollars/million tokens when you've discovered you can use that model to run a simulated Quant firm with a net profit of 300 dollars/million tokens? Why offer the model to companies so they can find zero-day exploits, when you can find them yourself and sell the discovery to companies which would may millions to avoid this exploit being taken advantage of?

3. Why serve models so another wrapper company like Cursor can make billions off your tokens, and then try to train their own models as fast as possible, trained on your outputs so they aren't dependent on you? The entire AI startup industry and like 90% of YC batches depend on being able to serve frontier models at a profit, mediated through some wrapper, why can't OpenAI/ANthropic, once their models are good enough to handle the ideation/organizational problem, become their own incubator for thousands of AI run startups, running on models way better than the public has access to?

As a consequence, there is less and less incentive over time to offer models as an API to the public.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#40

I admit I didn't read the entire post (I honestly think authors really need to come to terms with the fact that we now live in a world of information excess, and pithiness is more important than ever), but I wouldn't feel too bad yet given there was a recent front page HN post about how free, open models could actually catch all the issues Mythos did, it just required a little more orchestration. E.g. see https://ais…

I’ve read it, it’s taken me about ten minutes, and it’s been refreshing to read something that is not sloppy. The page design and type are soothing, too.

I don’t agree with everything that the article says but it soulfully blends concepts in history, politics, economics, cryptography and AI.

I don’t think the author could’ve compressed it without precisely sacrificing the essay’s soul.

Is this what everything is coming down to?

Post reply on HN