Live data from Hacker News

Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

theguardian.com

31–40 of 138 posts

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#32
post #18
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism neither prevents gulags nor famines. And you can bet (pun intended) someone will create them on purpose if they can make profit from it

Doesn't the US already have an above average incarceration rate and private prisons? Maybe, just maybe, there's some relation?

"Above average" is underselling it: the US has by far the the highest incarceration rates of the rich world [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarcera...

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Sure keep saying that to yourself. All of you sound so damn sure when speaking about socialism. Like the first nation to pierce the firmament of human fabric wasn't a socialist one. And that the union wasn't making great strides in technology.

[dead]

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#36
post #3

> There is now more than $500,000 (£371,000) staked on whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka this year . Now everyone has a chance to profit from war ! Thank you Polymarket

Are users able to bet specifically on whether prisoners of war in Kostyantynivka will be killed? Or whether women and children will be raped? That kind of fine-grained war market could be groundbreaking

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#37
post #3

> There is now more than $500,000 (£371,000) staked on whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka this year . Now everyone has a chance to profit from war ! Thank you Polymarket

You make it sound bad, but I personally am very much in favor of regular people having access to the same bad things that the people in charge have.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#38
So...

>“It used to be the news channels were the callers,” said Kane. “They used to be the final say in big events. Like this officially happened because CNN and Fox News said so. But thanks to Polymarket, there’s a new signal.”

This is interesting because of this:

>At the moment, when there is a dispute, markets on Polymarket are settled by an anonymous group of people who hold a crypto token called UMA.

[...]

>It isn’t known who the largest UMA holders are, or what might affect how they vote. It is entirely possible that the people who finally settle a bet on UMA have large amounts of money staked on it.

So basically instead of trusting CNN and Fox News you trust an anonymous group of people who may or may not profit themselves from their own decisions. I can't see how this is any better.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#39

'Capitalism': the inevitable reduction of all humanity to fungible currency

Is that necessarily true?

E.g., suppose I'm grocery shopping online and get put in behavioral histogram bin #1. You're in bin #2 because of stuff like impulsive browsing habits and low battery. Your bin's price for chips is consequently x% more expensive than mine.

Now, suppose both of us get separate uber rides from the same location. Similar data bins end up with your low battery generating y% higher price for your Uber.

Seems to me enough consolidation and behavioral data-based pricing practically impedes the fungibility of currency. Because while you and I can still borrow and pay back the currency directly to each other with impunity, the literal price of goods and services we can buy with that currency will be different. I.e., if you buy me a sandwich on Monday and I pay you back with a sandwich on Tuesday, you're losing money.

Edit: for the steel man of what I'm saying, imagine most grocery and convenience stores have shifted away from static pricing to something like qr codes. Also, assume pricing based on personal data is rampant across industries for most basic private goods and services.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#40

'Capitalism': the inevitable reduction of all humanity to fungible currency

Capitalism is just a projection of our natural competition for scarce resources onto an economic system.

Resources would not be scarce if some people were not hoarding.
Post reply on HN