31–40 of 68 posts
If one were to think a major stock market crash was coming up, led by the AI bubble bursting, but reinforced by the major self-own that is the Iran war, how would one best prepare ones investments?
Other than buying oil futures, probably selling to cash and getting ready to buy when it hits the fan.
This is a leading indicator for what is to come after the IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic this year. and it is not good.
spacex is particular is desperately searching for a bagholder. Leveraging the obvious synergies between rockets (a mediocre business), xai (a horrid business), and social media that lost more than half it's already modest revenues...
To get that to work they just would need to discard Musk and most things with him. Stop trying to make starship a thing, dump everything attached to it. Make a long term plan to improve the core lift capacity with actually achievable improvements.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You don’t think the US dollar will take a dive along with US stocks?
What specific thing(s) are you worried that USD will take a dive relative to? Then once you have an answer to that question, that might point you towards what you want to be long.
Copilot is the worst AI agent on the market. Over 50% of people I've spoken to that say AI is overhyped, when pressed, admit they were only using Copilot. This would be profitable if they could ship garbage for cheap, a la Microsoft Teams or Internet Explorer. But Copilot is worse at integrating with Office than Claude! This is because Copilot has aggressive context pruning to meet its price point of $20/month. That…
I think that people often compare apples to oranges by comparing the “copilot” they have in Windows/Office/Teams etc to Claude Code which is ridiculous.
A better product to compare Claude Code to would be “Github Copilot CLI”, but I haven’t seen the two seriously compared anywhere.
If one were to think a major stock market crash was coming up, led by the AI bubble bursting, but reinforced by the major self-own that is the Iran war, how would one best prepare ones investments?
The advice I have heard is if you think there will be a significant drop in the market you liquidate all your holdings while they are still high and then rebuy when the price is low. Granted this is a gamble though, if you’re wrong then you just sold all your stock and are no longer participating in the market plus you need to pay capital gains tax
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spacex is particular is desperately searching for a bagholder. Leveraging the obvious synergies between rockets (a mediocre business), xai (a horrid business), and social media that lost more than half it's already modest revenues...
SpaceX has reasonable business in it. Not a hypergrowth one, but one which should be solid in long term. To get that to work they just would need to discard Musk and most things with him. Stop trying to make starship a thing, dump everything attached to it. Make a long term plan to improve the core lift capacity with actually achievable improvements.
I'll have a pet unicorn shitting rainbows before Musk leaves one of his toys or we see in-orbit leading-edge (or anything close to it) processor production. SpaceX is a decent albeit capital intensive business if it's valued at $100-200B. At the proposed $1.5T+ valuation for this dog... the bagholder search is on.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You don’t think the US dollar will take a dive along with US stocks?
What specific thing(s) are you worried that USD will take a dive relative to? Then once you have an answer to that question, that might point you towards what you want to be long.
Only a few of them will matter on a day-to-day basis if you're currently in the US with assets valued in USD.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What specific thing(s) are you worried that USD will take a dive relative to? Then once you have an answer to that question, that might point you towards what you want to be long.
The USD could take a dive against: yuan, eu, gbp, rial, gold, silver, platinum, WTI, SPY, etc. Only a few of them will matter on a day-to-day basis if you're currently in the US with assets valued in USD.
Microsoft is one of the least likely large companies to benefit from an AI boom. They don’t have the capacity to support OpenAI and their own foundational models, they aren’t providing a compelling story for wrapping OpenAI, windows continues to suck… OpenAI signed an agreement with GCP , that should say a lot.
The underlying dynamic is that no single cloud provider has the capacity required to host all the demand, so the frontier AI labs have no choice but to diversify for their infrastructure needs.