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Why Sora Failed: $15M/day inference cost vs. $2.1M lifetime revenue

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Re: Why Sora Failed: $15M/day inference cost vs. $2.1M lifetime revenue

#31

Post by kukkamario »

MrGilbert wrote: post #10
santiagobasulto wrote: post #2

But doesn't $15M/day of inference cost imply "demand" from users? If this is the case, it's just a matter of time until costs can be reduced.

> If this is the case, it's just a matter of time until costs can be reduced. Is it, though? We cannot predict technological advancement, and the times of ̶M̶u̶r̶p̶h̶y̶'̶s̶ ̶L̶a̶w̶ Moore's Law* for computational power are long gone. There is simply no guarantee that the costs will go down enough. * thanks lucianbr!

I think there is plenty of room to make AI inference much more energy efficient. For example, there are companies testing creating custom silicon to run the model. Once that technology matures and we have some "good enough" models for normal use, inference cost for non-bleeding-edge models can come way down.

I don't expect bleeding-edge models to become any cheaper, but previous generation models can potentially be really cheap.

Re: Why Sora Failed: $15M/day inference cost vs. $2.1M lifetime revenue

#33

Post by Mashimo »

prodigycorp wrote: post #24

I'm sorry to be this guy but this is an incredibly poor quality article. False structure (thesis/evidence), links to poor quality sources, and a non-examination of the core thesis, which is that it's burning too much money. $15m/day inference? How was that calculated? Forbes? Did they get it right? Is that a reasonable estimate? Still valid? How was revenue calculated? IMO most of the votes had to come from some vote…

Yeah, it's not very good.

Even the basics:

> Every second of video requires rendering hundreds of individual frames

Was probably only 24 or 30 frames, not multiple hundreds per second.

Re: Why Sora Failed: $15M/day inference cost vs. $2.1M lifetime revenue

#34

Post by lucianbr »

MrGilbert wrote: post #10
santiagobasulto wrote: post #2

But doesn't $15M/day of inference cost imply "demand" from users? If this is the case, it's just a matter of time until costs can be reduced.

> If this is the case, it's just a matter of time until costs can be reduced. Is it, though? We cannot predict technological advancement, and the times of ̶M̶u̶r̶p̶h̶y̶'̶s̶ ̶L̶a̶w̶ Moore's Law* for computational power are long gone. There is simply no guarantee that the costs will go down enough. * thanks lucianbr!

Moore's Law.

The times for Murphy's Law for computational power are just beginning.

Re: Why Sora Failed: $15M/day inference cost vs. $2.1M lifetime revenue

#35

Post by Glawen »

lionkor wrote: post #28
northernsausage wrote: post #16

Story heavily edited by AI about an AI company with an AI product that makes AI videos that is closing so they can spend money on some other AI product. All seasoned with some AI goop images. I hate the future.

vibe coded website too -- I waited 4 seconds for it to load

At least it loaded, it did not on my side.

Re: Why Sora Failed: $15M/day inference cost vs. $2.1M lifetime revenue

#36

Post by Maken »

northernsausage wrote: post #16

Story heavily edited by AI about an AI company with an AI product that makes AI videos that is closing so they can spend money on some other AI product. All seasoned with some AI goop images. I hate the future.

I specially like the graph-looking picture with no axis, no data and no context.

Re: Why Sora Failed: $15M/day inference cost vs. $2.1M lifetime revenue

#37

Post by bonesss »

newsclues wrote: post #8
santiagobasulto wrote: post #2

But doesn't $15M/day of inference cost imply "demand" from users? If this is the case, it's just a matter of time until costs can be reduced.

I’ll eat lots of free samples at Costco of foods I’d never pay money for

A box that says "Free T-Shirts" can create near-infinite demand.

Paying near-infinity dollars for T-Shirts people want for $0 isn't a profitable business model.

Demand side price sensitivity impacts potential supply side margins.

Re: Why Sora Failed: $15M/day inference cost vs. $2.1M lifetime revenue

#38

Post by [deleted] »

kukkamario wrote: post #31
MrGilbert wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If this is the case, it's just a matter of time until costs can be reduced. Is it, though? We cannot predict technological advancement, and the times of ̶M̶u̶r̶p̶h̶y̶'̶s̶ ̶L̶a̶w̶ Moore's Law* for computational power are long gone. There is simply no guarantee that the costs will go down enough. * thanks lucianbr!

I think there is plenty of room to make AI inference much more energy efficient. For example, there are companies testing creating custom silicon to run the model. Once that technology matures and we have some "good enough" models for normal use, inference cost for non-bleeding-edge models can come way down. I don't expect bleeding-edge models to become any cheaper, but previous generation models can potentially be r…

[deleted]

Re: Why Sora Failed: $15M/day inference cost vs. $2.1M lifetime revenue

#39

Post by hk__2 »

Maken wrote: post #36
northernsausage wrote: post #16

Story heavily edited by AI about an AI company with an AI product that makes AI videos that is closing so they can spend money on some other AI product. All seasoned with some AI goop images. I hate the future.

I specially like the graph-looking picture with no axis, no data and no context.

The context is the text below and under it. The axis doesn’t matter, it’s the shape that does.

Re: Why Sora Failed: $15M/day inference cost vs. $2.1M lifetime revenue

#40

Post by hk__2 »

santiagobasulto wrote: post #2

But doesn't $15M/day of inference cost imply "demand" from users? If this is the case, it's just a matter of time until costs can be reduced.

> But doesn't $15M/day of inference cost imply "demand" from users? If this is the case, it's just a matter of time until costs can be reduced.

If you build a website that gives $100 for free to each one of your users, you’ll quickly have "demand" but that’s not "a matter of time until costs can be reduced".

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