If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.
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Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
31–40 of 202 posts
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#32> The wallets “definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info”, said Ben Yorke, formerly a researcher with CoinTelegraph, now building an AI trading platform called Starchild. Ben Yorke is the only expert I see mentioned in the article, so it'd be a lot more accurate (and a lot less sensational) if The Guardian changed its title to "... says one expert" (but it wouldn't sound as interesting then, woul…
> especially considering the risks.
What risks?
1. This isn't insider trading of securities.
2. This administration is laughably corrupt.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#33There's something funny about watching global markets react to Trump's every lazy lie as if Moses himself just passed down orders. Maybe funny is the wrong word. The kicker is that this isn't even Trump's war and he likely lacks the capacity to end it if he wanted to.
People want to believe this war will end soon.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#34What signs? This article is absolute slop (not AI, but slop). I do not have any reason to doubt that people are doing insider trading. The US admin is obviously corrupt and the Iran attacks are the most abject symptom of its corruption so far. But you can't just put out a bunch of completely isolated observations with zero analysis and say "that looks like insider trading". There is nothing at all in here that presen…
Breakdown of the presented points:
> Eight accounts, all newly created around 21 March, bet a total of nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on there being a ceasefire.
Is that anomalous? Are these numbers large in context?
> They stand to make nearly $820,000 if such a deal is reached before 31 March.
Yes that is indeed how prediction markets work for unlikely events?
> An account that made the same bet was created shortly before the US struck Iran on 28 February. It also placed a winning bet on those strikes, which raised similar questions around insider trading, and so far has bet on nothing else.
Is that anomalous? If I was betting 5 figure sums I would also stick to my areas of expertise. That doesn't mean I'm an insider.
> The new accounts all appear to have been created late last week, around the time when the US president, Donald Trump, appeared to first double down on war with Iran, then suggest in an after-markets Truth Social post that he was considering “winding down” military operations.
So what??? Is anything about that anomalous? What is that supposed to tell us about the accounts?
> The wallets “definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info”, said Ben Yorke, formerly a researcher with CoinTelegraph, now building an AI trading platform called Starchild.
"Some random fucking guy said this thing", OK?
> But online crypto watchers and experts suggested that the bets bore the signs of insider trading – both because they bought their positions at market price,
What the fuck does that even mean?
> and because some of the accounts looked like they could belong to a single investor attempting to conceal their identity by splitting their bet between multiple wallets.
This is just repeating a former claim that was not backed up with any rationale. And note the very next sentence provides an alternative motive for traders to split wallets, aside from insider trading.
> “Typically, when you see wallet-splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it’s one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading,” said Yorke.
But we haven't been presented with any evidence that we're seeing either of those things?? And also I can't help repeating, why the fuck are we supposed to listen to this guy's opinion?
> Polymarket’s own rating of the probability of a ceasefire before 31 March increased significantly in the past few days, from 6% on 21 March to 24% by Monday. More than $21m is currently being wagered on this outcome.
Again, this is just describing the normal and intended mechanics of the market. It's not anomalous and it's not evidence of wrongdoing.
Also it makes the $70k figure from the beginning look pretty small.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#35There's something funny about watching global markets react to Trump's every lazy lie as if Moses himself just passed down orders. Maybe funny is the wrong word. The kicker is that this isn't even Trump's war and he likely lacks the capacity to end it if he wanted to.
> The kicker is that this isn't even Trump's war
That's quite possible.
> and he likely lacks the capacity to end it if he wanted to.
Nah, he could end it any time he wants. Iran will stop bombing its neighbors in a week or so, and things will more or less return to the pre-war status quo.
He chooses to not end it, because the one thing that he cannot stand is losing face.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#36> The wallets “definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info”, said Ben Yorke, formerly a researcher with CoinTelegraph, now building an AI trading platform called Starchild. Ben Yorke is the only expert I see mentioned in the article, so it'd be a lot more accurate (and a lot less sensational) if The Guardian changed its title to "... says one expert" (but it wouldn't sound as interesting then, woul…
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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#37There are lists of the worst decisions of the Supreme Court in history (eg [1]). Dred Scott [2] often tops such lists. I believe that Trump v. United States [3] will go on such lists in the near future. Why? Because it opened the floodgates on corruption on a scale we previously haven't seen. The president has absolute immunity. The president's communications with the Attorney-General can't even be examined, basically. And there was absolutely no constitutional basis for it. The Court established a King.
So the president has absolute immunity from any consequences. The president can pardon anyone in their orbit. Pardons are now being openly sold for personal profit [4].
All of this was completely foreseeable from giving someone absolute immunity.
Prediction markets make this much worse because they're even more unregulated. We certainly had corruption even in Trump's first term (eg Jared Kushner's Saudi "investment" [5]). This is the new normal.
[1]: https://www.findlaw.com/legalblogs/supreme-court/13-worst-su...
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dred_Scott_v._Sandford
[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._United_States
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#38If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.
I think the main reason is that they were all too incompetent to realize what the effects of the war would be on the global financial system. The bets were probably just a happy opportunity for corruption. > The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt Look on the bright side, at least the malicious actors aren't able to competently implement their goals.
When do we cross the barrier from incompetent to nefarious?
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#39Every single action taken under this administration has been either primarily for corrupt grifting or has been turned into that, to the benefit of the Trump family, their friends, and their donors. It’s ridiculous how open all of it is. And the people and companies benefiting from it are pretending like they’re not the bad guys.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#40There's no ceasefire, Iran has no idea what he is making up as always.
He's delaying until the Marines get there in a few days.
And until the markets close on Friday, notice how he said 5 days on Monday.
He's also bombed them the past two times in the middle of negotiations, why stop now
The man is a proven constant pathological liar since the day he came down the golden escalator 10 years ago, literally every time he speaks it's a lie.