tl;dr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline... Many other things pass through the straight besides oil
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Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
31–40 of 42 posts
Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
#32strait closed is only applicable for usa ally ships so ur country just needs to be neutral or iran ally.. for american its not applicable bc they have their own oil/venezuela
Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
#33Eventually, yes. But 1) it's not a magic tap on/off, 2) refineries are specialized for specific types of oil, 3) a lot of ships are stuck there, 4) wells and refineries usually take a long time to restart. Serious oil traders are saying it will take months or even more than a year to get back to normal. The only thing containing prices at the moment is many exporters sold futures to lock-in prices for the rest of the…
The ships shortage is an underreported problem. Follow this guy
(LLMs are good at explaining the jargon). Shipping just got 3-4 times more expensive. Not just crude oil, also bulk, chemicals... There are not enough ships and there is not enough bunker diesel - normally costs 400$/t, now 1100$/t
Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
At these higher prices you can safely bet other producers are drilling new wells, adding more infrastructure, and upgrading refineries.
That’s not going to replace the sheer volume of the Middle East.
Yes it can. It's only 20%. The difference is ME is very cheap to extract relative to other places like shale.
Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
In theory yes, but in practice those drones would have to take a really long flight over enemy territory giving more opportunities to shoot them down. And it’s not like they are difficult to shoot down, they are cheap crap, their only advantage being that there’s a lot of them
You really haven’t been paying attention to Ukraine. You can launch them from trucks. from boats. You can make them so cheap defense becomes too costly. What people don’t seem to get is that you that much of modern infrastructure is not scalable to an age of war and chaos the US is unleashing in bid to shift power dynamics from economy (which China is winning) to military. Pipelines have endless vulnerability surface…
> You can make them so cheap defense becomes too costly.
That's because the US chose to shoot them down with Patriot missles, like morons. Ukrainians have developed cheap interceptor drones for this very purpose.
There are also radar-guided anti-aircraft guns like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard
Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
In theory yes, but in practice those drones would have to take a really long flight over enemy territory giving more opportunities to shoot them down. And it’s not like they are difficult to shoot down, they are cheap crap, their only advantage being that there’s a lot of them
As low tech as they are, they fly low, can’t really be detected by radar and you only need one to get through. Pipelines are long and can’t be protected.
Why not? Put them in the ground instead of on the ground. Or put a heap of sand on them to absorb the blast.
Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
#37*Can the world have an American President that for once doesn't start pointless wars to distract from internal scandals?
Every war in the 21st century that America has entered has been started by a Republican President
Exactly. And also a solid chunk of the 20th century. "Starting a war" can be a bit of a fuzzy delineation, but reasonably-speaking, it's been over 60 years since a Democratic president started a war (Vietnam war in 1965). For whatever reason, these types of facts never seem to budge the "BOTH SIDES BAD" types, though.
Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
#38Don’t forget the world needs LNG and the stuff made from petrochemicals such as fertilizer. They need to make chem plants as well as refineries to go with drilling new wells and run them harder. Get Venezuela up, but that’s probably O(years). Is there enough copper and power to get those ev stations up in the us? Cuz now’s their chance.
Recently submitted[1] related Bloomberg story: Strikes on Qatar's LNG Ras Laffan plant Will Reshape the Future of Fossil Gas [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47484246
There used to be conventions on not assinating leaders, or abducting them, commiting genocide, bombing water and hospitals, targeting journalists and birthday girls and boys, oh and destroying fuel infrastructure.
Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
#39*Can the world have an American President that for once doesn't start pointless wars to distract from internal scandals?
Every war in the 21st century that America has entered has been started by a Republican President
How are you defining war? Weren't Libya and Syria started under Obama?
Re: Can the world get its supply of oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz?
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
As low tech as they are, they fly low, can’t really be detected by radar and you only need one to get through. Pipelines are long and can’t be protected.
Why not? Put them in the ground instead of on the ground. Or put a heap of sand on them to absorb the blast.
Yeah buried pipelines are common but I can’t imagine Iran is going to let them be built without interference. Also, a 2000 mile buried pipeline can take 2-3 years to build and that’s without account for 2-5 years of planning, permitting and land acquisition phase. None of this is going to happen soon.