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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#31

Post by ordu »

gambiting wrote: post #8
echelon wrote: post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

>>Europe won't be able to catch that. If we cut the chip supply right as things take off, China might not either. My immediate thought is - why is it a race. Like holy shit imagine if we could actually work together instead of having this mentality of "if we work hard the other countries won't catch that". As someone who grew up in the golden age of globalization and rise of the information superhighway, the way coun…

People tend to choose extremes. Either a total globalization or zero-sum games only. Everything in between bears risks of a cognitive overload so should be avoided at all costs.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#32

Post by ambicapter »

CalRobert wrote: post #28
ambicapter wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's absolutely insane that Claude Code can spit out a week's worth of business automation tasks in half a day. And do it at relatively high quality in low-defect rate languages like Rust. > Europe won't be able to catch that. You think Europe won't be able to use Claude Code? If Claude Code is the one reaping the majority of the benefits of "spit[ing] out a week's worth of business automation tasks", then it's not…

Well, if it becomes strategically advantageous to bar Europeans from doing so, why would we (Europeans) be permitted continued access?

Weird how all the American social media companies continue to try to operate in Europe in spit of the massive fines they keep on racking up in court. They can't help themselves, if there is money to be made they got to get in there.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#33

Post by int32_64 »

"The change may cause policymakers to misjudge the economy’s health, investors to lose confidence in the reliability of the data, and the public to disengage from participating in official measures altogether."

Many neoliberal Western countries with good data have completely fumbled their economies post-GFC and post-Covid, just look at Canada's disastrous GDP per capita growth.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#34

Post by georgemcbay »

echelon wrote: post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

> America [...] needs to make friends with all of its former allies. And it needs to import PhD students.

America, in the form of the Trump administration and a Trump-subservient Congress, just spent the last year completely destroying trust on these issues and it would take decades of sustained effort to rebuild it.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#35

Post by Hikikomori »

alephnerd wrote: post #23
rf15 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really do not understand how interdependent everyone is. The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example. The US kneecapped itself for no reason.

> The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example The US, not Europe. ASML's EUV and High NA EUV production is all done in California via US DoE joint ventures (specifically Cymer LLC [0]). Additionally, their metrology IP is Taiwanese [1] as part of ASML's acquisition of HMI back in 2016 with Taiwanese approval [2]. ASML is the capital partner because in the early 2000s, the US government wanted to preve…

The laser source, not the rest of the machine.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#36

Post by pyronite »

throwawa1 wrote: post #19

Its been unreliable my entire life. Every year the economy gets better but life gets worse. You can't even recognize the country any more.

A subjective sample of yourself isn’t representative of the overall economy or the way an economy should be run.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#37

Post by CalRobert »

ambicapter wrote: post #32
CalRobert wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if it becomes strategically advantageous to bar Europeans from doing so, why would we (Europeans) be permitted continued access?

Weird how all the American social media companies continue to try to operate in Europe in spit of the massive fines they keep on racking up in court. They can't help themselves, if there is money to be made they got to get in there.

Social media is a tool to shift public opinion and extract cash from the general populous. Claude, however, is actually useful.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#38

Post by alephnerd »

Hikikomori wrote: post #35
alephnerd wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example The US, not Europe. ASML's EUV and High NA EUV production is all done in California via US DoE joint ventures (specifically Cymer LLC [0]). Additionally, their metrology IP is Taiwanese [1] as part of ASML's acquisition of HMI back in 2016 with Taiwanese approval [2]. ASML is the capital partner because in the early 2000s, the US government wanted to preve…

The laser source, not the rest of the machine.

The metrology is coming from Taiwan and California (HMI) as well. The Veldhoven campus "only" does final assembly (which should not be underestimated either - it's complex and high precision work).

But it's the light source and the metrology that is the blocker.

Edit: can't reply

> And mirrors from Carl Zeiss

Absolutely! But note how Zeiss/Trumpf is not ASML. If the US DoE changes the terms of the Cymer partnership and pressures Taiwan (who have just purchased $8B in US military equipment and whom the EU logistically speaking cannot protect) to revert the HMI acquisition, ASML is over.

Additonally, a lot of the muscle around Zeiss/Trumpf's mirrors is also at the Zeiss office in the Tri-Valley because of their partnership with LLNL.

And both China [0] and Japan [1] are in the process of building an Ex-ASML supply chain for EUV, NA EUV, and DUV, and will likely reach that point by the late 2020s to early 2030s.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manh...

[1] - https://www.nikkei.com/nkd/company/us/SNPS/news/?DisplayType...

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#39

Post by arjie »

One of the things I do like about the US, and that I think is a reason for America's ability to meet the challenges this country faces is that it has good data collection and aggregation mechanisms: from the seemingly-banal surveys and so on to satellite remote-sensing.

There's three more years to go but afterwards (and perhaps even post the mid-terms) we should be able to hammer back some of this nonsense like being upset about job reports not showing favourable information and so on. Good information allows good decision-making and it's important we don't break that. Hopefully the current surge of low-quality corrupt executive choices isn't met by a counter-surge that kicks out people like Jerome Powell because he's a multi-millionaire capitalist or whatever.

I think it won't be. The establishment folks are mostly sensible. It's the new crop of "no property tax" and "no income tax for tips" and "no tax for under $100k earners" and so on that makes me worried, but I'm hoping it will all settle down soon.

We'll have to find better surveying methods than the phone surveys but provided #2 and #3 are solved in the article, which is just a matter of switching the admin, then we should be able to.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#40

Post by WarmWash »

gambiting wrote: post #8
echelon wrote: post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

>>Europe won't be able to catch that. If we cut the chip supply right as things take off, China might not either. My immediate thought is - why is it a race. Like holy shit imagine if we could actually work together instead of having this mentality of "if we work hard the other countries won't catch that". As someone who grew up in the golden age of globalization and rise of the information superhighway, the way coun…

I think when Europe failed to handle Ukraine on their own, the optics started looking pretty bad.
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