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Most of the US economy is in a recession

businessinsider.com

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Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#31

Post by vrosas »

eunos wrote: post #28
state_less wrote: post #13

Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week or two. If oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, even if the strait of hormuz is reopened, it'll take a long time to recover from. That's on top of the continued call for regressive tariffs and a weakening labor market. I think we're heading for a recession unle…

Even if Trump goes Taco, Khamenei Jr won't accept. Remember the adversary also get a vote.

Mojtaba will be dead within a month. What would it say about the entire operation if they just backed off and let Khamenei’s son take over?

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#32

Post by lakrici88284 »

state_less wrote: post #13

Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week or two. If oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, even if the strait of hormuz is reopened, it'll take a long time to recover from. That's on top of the continued call for regressive tariffs and a weakening labor market. I think we're heading for a recession unle…

[dead]

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#33

Post by nxm »

kldavis4 wrote: post #26
irishcoffee wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The post-WWII economy in the US is the answer you’re looking for, and the whole world has been chasing that dragon ever since.

does that include the 90% marginal tax rates? :)

It includes a pre-globalization world

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#34

Post by Terr_ »

roxolotl wrote: post #16
state_less wrote: post #13

Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week or two. If oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, even if the strait of hormuz is reopened, it'll take a long time to recover from. That's on top of the continued call for regressive tariffs and a weakening labor market. I think we're heading for a recession unle…

My guess is that this time even if there’s a TACO you can’t turn back the clock on everything that’s happened. The tariffs are mostly an on/off switch. You can’t unbomb infrastructure.

Or easily un-convince people who've been bombed that they need to hold nearby trade hostage for retribution/protection.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#35

Post by _heimdall »

mr_00ff00 wrote: post #19

> "Excluding new era investment, the other 89% of real private spending rose by only 1% with no job creation," the strategist wrote. That isn’t what a recession is

We've been redefining recession recently, it may not matter much what the textbook definition is.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#36

Post by ghaff »

KittenInABox wrote: post #30
ghaff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people need those delivery services? Why can't they just cook meals at home like most people do?

Disabled people exist, even temporarily so (e.g. pregnant with a craving, broken ankle and can't drive, etc)! Also, sometimes some meals are arguably not worth the labor of cooking. Making proper pho takes at least a whole day. Pad Thai really doesn't function without the kind of intense heat of specific equipment. Etc etc.

I certainly eat at restaurants. In general I find there are enough compromises associated with delivered food that it's not worth it. You're basically reheating lukewarm food whatever the packaging. (And I don't live in a city anyway.)

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#37

Post by api »

mlsu wrote: post #4
delichon wrote: post #3

Creative destruction requires both booms and busts together. Capital must flow between sectors for economic adaptation. We're seeing a massive capital shift to AI solutions, recalibrating the whole economy. I have insufficient data to calculate whether that's good or not.

Capital must flow, period. Right now it's accumulating into a very small group of actors and becoming concentrated. There's no way to have a good economy, period, with the amount of consolidation across every sector. The only thing that's actually competitive anymore are restaurants.

“How can you have an economy with no customers?”

We are getting there. Real estate grows without bound. Wages are stagnant in real terms. Job losses. Inflation.

I suppose a few mega corps and rich dudes could buy stuff from each other.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#38

Post by nradov »

ghaff wrote: post #12
amelius wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Restaurants are being extorted by online delivery services.

Why do people need those delivery services? Why can't they just cook meals at home like most people do?

Or just go pick up your own take-out food. Like do these customers not have working cars or even bicycles? I understand that there are customers who are stuck at home due to disability or caregiver responsibilities but those are a tiny niche. I've seen able-bodied young people spending a fortune on delivery services, which is just stupid.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#39

Post by kccqzy »

state_less wrote: post #13

Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week or two. If oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, even if the strait of hormuz is reopened, it'll take a long time to recover from. That's on top of the continued call for regressive tariffs and a weakening labor market. I think we're heading for a recession unle…

Why care about oil when alternate fossil-fuel-free technologies have become mature? This could very well be the last straw to push many nations (except the U.S.) to massively buy Chinese solar panels and Chinese EVs to be oil independent.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#40

Post by rngfnby »

state_less wrote: post #13

Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week or two. If oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, even if the strait of hormuz is reopened, it'll take a long time to recover from. That's on top of the continued call for regressive tariffs and a weakening labor market. I think we're heading for a recession unle…

My understanding is that, until the hits on Tehrans oil storage sites yesterday, the oil infrastructure has been spared. Nothing that isn't easy to repair.

Ie the price increase we've seen so far os mostly pricing the closing of the staits and the risk of reduced production production is halted due to running out of storage (ie akin to a cpu "pipeline stall".

But Iran got hit badly yesterday, with tar raining on the capital. If Iran retaliates against infrastructure...

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