How is any of this going to get passed without enforcement of anti-trust and an end to citizen united?
What does anti-trust enforcement and citizens united have to do with being able to pass laws on insider trading?
Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
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Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#32The answer is simple - you price in the chance that an insider could have an edge on you when making your prediction. It's all part of the game.
Or, and I beg you to consider this radical position: we arrest people who break the law (insider trading is illegal) and those who knowingly help them to do so (the operators of the prediction markets). How quickly we accept the death of even the ideal of rule of law in favor of embracing a return to an explicit rule by might, fuck-you-got-mine mentality.
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Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#33The prediction market trend will "work itself out".
It will become common knowledge that these platforms are exploited by insiders so people "trust" apparent flagged insider bets, so people will try to piggyback insiders, then it will be revealed that a sophisticated party with infinitely deep pockets burns massive amounts of cash to manipulate odds and these piggybackers will be burned badly, so in the end classical gambling and sports betting will resume as preferred ways for gamblers to lose money because of their disgust with the manipulation.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#34Related:
War Prediction Markets Are a National-Security Threat https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/polymarket-in...
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#35I recall a few finance papers saying (paraphrasing) "approximately all private info is reflected in stock prices". The same is obviously true of prediction markets. If government officials are banned, they'll just give a little wink to a relative or friend, and the prediction markets will reflect the private information.
On a personal note, I find these markets incredibly useful in day to day life. There's been a joke for a while that putting site:reddit.com in your google search is the only way to get (some) real information. It's becoming true that putting AND (kalshi OR polymarket) is how to get accurate info.
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#36Unfortunately, it's not just elected officials that are problematic for prediction markets. The Secretary of War, for instance is not an elected official nor are leaders of the armed forces and there is definitely a prediction market for war. Multiply this by every powerful appointee and every career bureaucrat and see what kind of picture that paints.
Don't forget relatives, useful idiots, and billionaire special envoys!
The latter two groups often overlap, even
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#37I recall a few finance papers saying (paraphrasing) "approximately all private info is reflected in stock prices". The same is obviously true of prediction markets. If government officials are banned, they'll just give a little wink to a relative or friend, and the prediction markets will reflect the private information. On a personal note, I find these markets incredibly useful in day to day life. There's been a jok…
Accurate info on what? Most markets have almost no liquidity, outside of sports and crypto
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#38I recall a few finance papers saying (paraphrasing) "approximately all private info is reflected in stock prices". The same is obviously true of prediction markets. If government officials are banned, they'll just give a little wink to a relative or friend, and the prediction markets will reflect the private information. On a personal note, I find these markets incredibly useful in day to day life. There's been a jok…
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#39Does this include the stock market?
Re: Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets
#40If we can't ban them from trading stocks, good luck with this.
Don't be needlessly cynical. This is a good effort. So is the ban on stock trading. This administration is such that it is bringing corruption to the fore in a way not seen in generations. Things are always hard to pass at the start. Keep pushing and this administration will create a massive opportunity to swing the pendulum if we can (as hard as it is now) retain some optimism.
Blindly trying things without taking signals from outcomes of the past seems like madness. If you have evidence you have failed at walking many times, should you be putting your energy and efforts into running and jumping instead of continuing to pursue walking?