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War prediction markets are a national-security threat

theatlantic.com

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Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#31

Post by StevenWaterman »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #19

> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March. I know this is more for the drama than an actual claim, but it made me w…

[2] Is sorted by profit/loss high to low, so you're seeing the first page of highest gains only, which is why it looks like he's always right. If you sort alphabetically / by date then there are losses

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#32

Post by Smar »

Analemma_ wrote: post #20

I said this in another thread, but if you were to ask me "what is the biggest 180 you've made on some political or policy question in the last decade", it would for sure be prediction markets. I used to be all-in on the idea after reading Caplan, Taleb etc.: make people have "skin in the game" on a grand scale and we can have better predictions and better policy! But what a disaster they've been in practice: it's jus…

Maybe the employees are only copying their leaders.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#34

Post by [deleted] »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #19

> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March. I know this is more for the drama than an actual claim, but it made me w…

[deleted]

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#36

Post by ReptileMan »

> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March.

Good thing that Polymarket gives such a good signal unlike such subtle clues as carrier group movements.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#37

Post by metalcrow »

jimkleiber wrote: post #6
Footnote7341 wrote: post #5

Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.

Yeah but less direct incentive than "If my friends (and I) bet money on X, and I do X, they (and I) make money."

Not by much, plus the volume is much lower on prediction markets, so people with large pockets who happen to be in power and are capable of doing big moves like this would make more money on the oil futures.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#38

Post by School-Cotton »

wutwutwat wrote: post #26
givemeethekeys wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet another side effect of being automated out of a purposeful life.

The purpose of life is work?

Pretty much, yeah. A lot of people don't just want to consume, they derive self-esteem from doing something that is useful for others.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#40

Post by fragmede »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #35
gruez wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

/s?

Don’t think so. A lot of peoples’ first reaction to something they don’t understand is to try and make it go away.

A lot of people reaction to understanding what derivatives are are also to try and make them go away. Thinking derivatives are legalized gambling, and being against gambling entirely, doesn't require a lack of understanding of derivatives to be against them.
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