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Elite Overproduction

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Re: Elite Overproduction

#31

Post by smallmancontrov »

sinuhe69 wrote: post #22

In the Turchin model of societal collapse, discussing elite overproduction alone is not helpful at all. The model calls for 3 pillars: - elite overproduction and limited job opportunities - wealth pump and inequality - declining of popular wellbeing and growing resentment Thus, it only makes sense to consider elite overproduction within this framework.

...which is where the "Marx in a Moustache" critique comes from, because it's all just immediately downstream from inequality.

If you can slap a moustache on economic inequality, you avoid academic accusations of unoriginality and the popular antibodies against "he who must not be named." This is good for the author, but for the reader? It's about as useful as trying to stick a fake moustache over that magnificent beard.

Re: Elite Overproduction

#32

Post by whattheheckheck »

pembrook wrote: post #23
whattheheckheck wrote: post #15

Yeah society needs to be able to allow for this In Machiavelli's view. whoever desires to establish a kingdom or principality where liberty and equality to prevail, will equally fail, unless he withdraws from that general equality a number of the boldest and most ambitious spirits, and makes gentlemen of them not merely in name but in fact, by giving them castles and possessions, as well as money and subjects; so tha…

So essentially, this is why the suburbs of Washington DC are among the highest income regions in the world. You don’t have to invent new technologies if you simply position yourself next to halls of power and the money printer.

And how every person who figures out enough stuff to buy a house with a 30 year mortgage... they get to climb a predestined little mountain to keep them busy

Re: Elite Overproduction

#33

Post by ftmootnomoat »

pembrook wrote: post #17
pfisherman wrote: post #8

I associate this phrase with losers and people trying to sabotage the US. You know who is not wringing their hands about “elite overproduction”? China, who are pumping out tons of smart and capable STEM PhDs, and have in a relatively short time caught up to and in some cases surpassed the US in production of scientific output and technology.

In my view, STEM PhDs are not members of the “elite.” Historically, in the US the elite are the managerial class, the lawyers (future politicians), and the coastal dilettantes who are already wealthy enough to major in the social sciences. When 1+ million students are getting MBAs every year in the belief they will be members of the C-suite, but there’s only a few thousand such positions, you have a case of elite ove…

STEM and PHDs were definitely “elite” 40 years ago.

For-profit degree-churning colleges made them not-so-elite through the law of supply and demand.

And now they can’t even get a job.

Re: Elite Overproduction

#34

Post by PorterBHall »

pwozgcw wrote: post #6

Probably couples with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-intellectualism

I have to wonder, too, if this partially describes why "Make America Great Again" has been such an effective slogan. The greatness that most Americans long to return to is a time where a larger middle class was able to more easily pay for health care, housing, and other needs.

Re: Elite Overproduction

#35

Post by jackdoe »

TrackerFF wrote: post #28

I've observed that when big waves of (labor) change washes over the working classes, it is met with "tough luck!" and some advice to seek a new profession, often starting again at the very bottom. But when this happens to the educated professional class, all hell breaks loose. The system has to change , because it is unthinkable for some professional with a master's degree to become a warehouse sorter. If AI really m…

> I fully expect the next revolution to be fronted by that class.

the keyboard warriors?

Re: Elite Overproduction

#36

Post by [deleted] »

TrackerFF wrote: post #28

I've observed that when big waves of (labor) change washes over the working classes, it is met with "tough luck!" and some advice to seek a new profession, often starting again at the very bottom. But when this happens to the educated professional class, all hell breaks loose. The system has to change , because it is unthinkable for some professional with a master's degree to become a warehouse sorter. If AI really m…

[deleted]

Re: Elite Overproduction

#37

Post by ftmootnomoat »

alexpotato wrote: post #27
sinuhe69 wrote: post #22

In the Turchin model of societal collapse, discussing elite overproduction alone is not helpful at all. The model calls for 3 pillars: - elite overproduction and limited job opportunities - wealth pump and inequality - declining of popular wellbeing and growing resentment Thus, it only makes sense to consider elite overproduction within this framework.

Isn't this partly what explained the Arab Spring uprising in Egypt? e.g. the government made university education free, lots of people went to university, there was now excess supply of college educated professionals, this led to unhappy young professionals, in turn led to unrest etc etc.

The problem with educated youth who understand the game is that if there’s no room for them to join the ruling class they become very angry.

They will want to topple the elite so they can replace them.

Re: Elite Overproduction

#38

Post by energy123 »

ftmootnomoat wrote: post #11
timmg wrote: post #2

I'm one of those people that goes by the "all models are wrong, but some models are useful" saying. I'm sure the "elite overproduction" model is mostly wrong. But I also think it is an interesting/useful way to look at some things happening in society recently. Certainly, you can think of the recent "cancel culture" phenomena as a great way to remove elites to make room for new ones. ( Maybe you could argue that some…

You just wanted to jam in this conversation your dislike of DEI (which can be criticised but it’s not the subject). Elite overproduction is about everybody wanting to be basically managers and nobody wanting to be production workers. Except that without enough production workers it’s impossible to justify “elite” positions. College graduates took on huge debt only to realise they’re not needed. That’s how you get a c…

This is my model for Reddit. College educated individuals who are angry about their life, leading to a lot of well written posts about how everything is awful and everyone is evil.

Re: Elite Overproduction

#39

Post by ftmootnomoat »

jackdoe wrote: post #35
TrackerFF wrote: post #28

I've observed that when big waves of (labor) change washes over the working classes, it is met with "tough luck!" and some advice to seek a new profession, often starting again at the very bottom. But when this happens to the educated professional class, all hell breaks loose. The system has to change , because it is unthinkable for some professional with a master's degree to become a warehouse sorter. If AI really m…

> I fully expect the next revolution to be fronted by that class. the keyboard warriors?

Unironically yes. They were promised a seat in the ruling class. All they got was crippling debt. That’s how you incubate dissidents.

Re: Elite Overproduction

#40

Post by pfisherman »

ftmootnomoat wrote: post #18
pfisherman wrote: post #8

I associate this phrase with losers and people trying to sabotage the US. You know who is not wringing their hands about “elite overproduction”? China, who are pumping out tons of smart and capable STEM PhDs, and have in a relatively short time caught up to and in some cases surpassed the US in production of scientific output and technology.

It works in China because they have growth. In the west thousands of college kids thought they could land cushy management positions or at least highly paid expert jobs. Then these kids realise these jobs don’t exist, that they should have gone to trade school instead, and that their student debt will cripple them for life. Same thing will happen in China. For now their economy grows so fast it can absorb many intell…

We live in a globalized economy. Rapid transport of people, goods, and information necessitates it. The high paying STEM jobs will go to wherever there is an abundance of talent, and the network effects are quite significant.
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