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Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

anthropic.com

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Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#31
My day to day is even busier now with agents all over the place making code changes. The Security landscape is even more complex now overnight. The only negative impact I see is that there’s not much need for junior devs right now. The agent fills that role in a way. But we’ll have to backfill some way or another.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#32
post #27
post #20

From my experience as a software engineer, doubling my productivity hasn’t reduced my workload. My output per hour has gone up, but expectations and requirements have gone up just as fast. Software development is effectively endless work, and AI has mostly compressed timelines rather than reduced total demand.

It is not going to reduce your workload. It is going to remove one of your co-workers.

Or just make time for more Very Important Meetings.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#33
post #30
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not going to reduce your workload. It is going to remove one of your co-workers.

This seems unlikely. My company is in competition with a number of other startups. If AI removes one of my co-workers, our competitors will keep the co-worker and out-compete us.

> This seems unlikely.

It is absolutely likely. The hiring market for juniors is fucked atm.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#34
post #27
post #20

From my experience as a software engineer, doubling my productivity hasn’t reduced my workload. My output per hour has gone up, but expectations and requirements have gone up just as fast. Software development is effectively endless work, and AI has mostly compressed timelines rather than reduced total demand.

It is not going to reduce your workload. It is going to remove one of your co-workers.

In a bear market in a bloated company, maybe. We’re still actively hiring at my startup, even with going all-in on AI across the company. My PM is currently shipping major features (with my review) faster and with higher-quality code than any engineer did last year.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#37
post #33
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems unlikely. My company is in competition with a number of other startups. If AI removes one of my co-workers, our competitors will keep the co-worker and out-compete us.

> This seems unlikely. It is absolutely likely. The hiring market for juniors is fucked atm.

Erm its been fucked for many years across many professions, it was just less so for software engineering in particular. Now entry into the S-E profession is taking a hit.

Also dont forget theres only so many viable revenue-generating and cost-saving projects to take. And said above - overhiring in COVID.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#38
post #33
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems unlikely. My company is in competition with a number of other startups. If AI removes one of my co-workers, our competitors will keep the co-worker and out-compete us.

> This seems unlikely. It is absolutely likely. The hiring market for juniors is fucked atm.

Because of overhiring during the post-COVID free money glitch, not because of AI.

Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence

#39
post #20

From my experience as a software engineer, doubling my productivity hasn’t reduced my workload. My output per hour has gone up, but expectations and requirements have gone up just as fast. Software development is effectively endless work, and AI has mostly compressed timelines rather than reduced total demand.

That’s the economy in general. Labor saving innovations increase productivity but do not usually reduce work very much, though they can shift it around pretty dramatically. There are game theoretic reasons for this, as well as phenomena like the hedonic treadmill.
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