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Khamenei Dead

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31–40 of 95 posts

Re: Khamenei Dead

#31

Anyone who still believes the zionist-american misinformation empire is gullible beyond sanity. big mistake

There is no benefit, and significant risk, in lying about that (it's an easily disproven claim if they're lying).

I don't trust them because I like them. I trust them because being truthful is in their best interest (and I trust they will always act in their own interest).

Re: Khamenei Dead

#32
post #8

So now heads of state are fair game for unilateral elimination without a declaration of war This should be fun.

Generally when you murder 30k of your own people the civilized world doesn't let you get away with it.

I just wish we'd apply this rule slightly more widely and didn't let countries get away with say - just as example - killing 20k children in Gaza. I guess you did say "generally".

Re: Khamenei Dead

#33
post #15
post #8

So now heads of state are fair game for unilateral elimination without a declaration of war This should be fun.

[flagged]

There’s a reason every POTUS has a Secret Service detail. So yeah, it’s been imagined. Presidents have been shot and killed before, and Trump himself was shot during the lead up to the most recent election.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#34
post #12

Iranian media is very quiet today (due to the blackout), but until they confirms this, then this is complete speculation and unconfirmed. We just don't know. I'd take the Israeli media with a grain of salt and they can still fake this, just like the Iranian media can do as well given that AI exists, it's very easy to fake. One side is not telling the truth. Only time will tell.

[deleted]

Re: Khamenei Dead

#35
post #7

I'm not sure this is a sic semper tyranis but it's close.

More relevant is who'll take his place, and whether they're better or worse. Note that regime collapse, in a major petrostate with a population of 92 million and in the middle of a critical yet volatile region, can be worse than "the devil you know".

Lawfare Daily from 3 days ago talked about this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfNGVWjglL4

Is there a succession, does the military take over, does it break down into factions? Many interesting questions and points raised.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#36
post #9

So, what does that mean? Is Iran one of those regimes that fall when the leader is killed or is it one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going? If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war?

> one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going

The council (50+ members) may elect another leader in his stead, provided the current council can hold on to their seats, which depends on a lot of factors.

> If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war

If the previous Western policy for the region is any indicator, they'd prefer a monarch over democracy. Probably even civil war over democracy, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Re: Khamenei Dead

#37

Anyone who still believes the zionist-american misinformation empire is gullible beyond sanity. big mistake

There is no benefit, and significant risk, in lying about that (it's an easily disproven claim if they're lying). I don't trust them because I like them. I trust them because being truthful is in their best interest (and I trust they will always act in their own interest).

It is not in their best interest, since it's obvious that for at least a decade, blatantly lying and even being caught lying has no impact on their so-called credibility. Lying about this does improve morale among troops and citizens, and gives them some form of early justification. So no. They do benefit from lying about this.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#38
post #8

So now heads of state are fair game for unilateral elimination without a declaration of war This should be fun.

Generally when you murder 30k of your own people the civilized world doesn't let you get away with it.

Unless it’s our dictator like Pinochet

Re: Khamenei Dead

#39
post #9

So, what does that mean? Is Iran one of those regimes that fall when the leader is killed or is it one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going? If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war?

Excellent question - my understanding is that previous decapitation attacks were avoided due to the probability that the IRGC would take over as a simple dictatorship. Unclear what's changed now though.

My understanding is that the Iranian government is very resilient. The has been a succession plan since the 70s with a broad board of individuals who can choose the next leader.

Blowback is going to be the biggest issue here. Ali Khamenei wasn't just the leader of Iran, he was well respected for Shia muslims. While not perfectly analogous, it's close to killing the pope.

Maybe this leads to open revolt which might fully topple to government, that said, I don't think there's a US/Israel endorsed leader or goal for succession here.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#40
post #7

I'm not sure this is a sic semper tyranis but it's close.

More relevant is who'll take his place, and whether they're better or worse. Note that regime collapse, in a major petrostate with a population of 92 million and in the middle of a critical yet volatile region, can be worse than "the devil you know".

[deleted]
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