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The Hydrogen Truck Problem Isn't the Truck

mikeayles.com

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Re: The Hydrogen Truck Problem Isn't the Truck

#31

Post by defrost »

idiotsecant wrote: post #29
defrost wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The path of most interest to many is Renewables -> bulk hydrogen as storage -> electricity grid. The bulk storage method of interest is dissolved salt caverns: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47160599

Bulk hydrogen makes a lot less sense than pumping water up a hill. We have thousands and thousands of sites throughout the country that would be great for pumped storage and require absolutely no advanced technology. They are buildable today .

Location, location, location - there are many sites globally suitable for geological bulk hydrogen storage; the UK has had the Tesside site operational until recently since the early 1970s.

They were built 50 years ago. (Slightly before today).

Pumped hydrogen at Walpole is a great functional little project that eases the grid edge brown out problem. ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45332157 )

Scaling that up to the energy storage potential of the right geological structures of the sizes needed to power cities and run heavy industrial isn't as economically clearcut as you may assume.

Re: The Hydrogen Truck Problem Isn't the Truck

#32

Post by rfv6723 »

cjbenedikt wrote: post #2

Excellent analysis. Two points: what if 1) only surplus energy from offshore wind would be used for green H2 electrolysis and 2) the price would be at or below £/€/$ 1.50 per Kg?

The logistical nightmare of hydrogen makes its production price almost irrelevant. Using surplus wind energy for carbon capture to create synthetic fuels is much smarter because these liquids are compatible with our current global infrastructure. You bypass the need for expensive new pipelines and specialized tanks entirely. By binding green hydrogen into a stable synthetic hydrocarbon, you get a fuel that is easy to move, has high energy density, and won't leak through solid steel.

Re: The Hydrogen Truck Problem Isn't the Truck

#33

Post by toomuchtodo »

dirk94018 wrote: post #8

Hydrogen has been the future as long as I have been paying attention to electric cars. There are many problems with it, including Hydrogen is the smallest molecule. It leaks through seals, embrittles metals, and has terrible energy density by volume. You either compress it to 700 bar (heavy tanks), liquefy it at -253°C (energy-intensive), or store it in metal hydrides (heavy, slow release). Solid state batteries are…

Electric heavy duty trucks are already here, with existing battery technology.

> In 2020, nearly all new trucks in China ran on diesel. By the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks accounted for 22% of new heavy truck sales, up from 9.2% in the same period in 2024, according to Commercial Vehicle World, a Beijing-based trucking data provider. The British research firm BMI forecasts electric trucks will reach nearly 46% of new sales this year and 60% next year.

> The share of electrics in new truck sales, from 8% in 2024 to 28% by August 2025, has more than tripled as prices have fallen. Electric trucks outsold LNG-powered vehicles in China for five consecutive months this year, according to Commercial Vehicle World.

> While electric trucks are two to three times more expensive than diesel ones and cost roughly 18% more than LNG trucks, their higher energy efficiency and lower costs can save owners an estimated 10% to 26% over the vehicle’s lifetime, according to research by Chinese scientists.

https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2025/chinas-di...

https://electrek.co/2026/01/24/hybrid-and-electric-semi-truc...

https://www.electrive.com/2026/01/23/year-end-surge-electric...

Re: The Hydrogen Truck Problem Isn't the Truck

#34

Post by tjmc »

dirk94018 wrote: post #8

Hydrogen has been the future as long as I have been paying attention to electric cars. There are many problems with it, including Hydrogen is the smallest molecule. It leaks through seals, embrittles metals, and has terrible energy density by volume. You either compress it to 700 bar (heavy tanks), liquefy it at -253°C (energy-intensive), or store it in metal hydrides (heavy, slow release). Solid state batteries are…

Looking forward to seeing solid state batteries for aviation, but the scary part is that they get heavier when they discharge as oxygen from the air turns into solid oxide.

Re: The Hydrogen Truck Problem Isn't the Truck

#35

Post by AnthonyMouse »

tjmc wrote: post #34
dirk94018 wrote: post #8

Hydrogen has been the future as long as I have been paying attention to electric cars. There are many problems with it, including Hydrogen is the smallest molecule. It leaks through seals, embrittles metals, and has terrible energy density by volume. You either compress it to 700 bar (heavy tanks), liquefy it at -253°C (energy-intensive), or store it in metal hydrides (heavy, slow release). Solid state batteries are…

Looking forward to seeing solid state batteries for aviation, but the scary part is that they get heavier when they discharge as oxygen from the air turns into solid oxide.

Isn't that good for aviation? Makes it relatively less expensive to carry reserve energy you don't expect to use, don't have to pay the weight cost during takeoff when weight costs the most energy because you just charged the battery and once you're at cruising speed more weight is just neutral momentum.

Probably the least convenient thing would be if you had to land and take off again somewhere without recharging.

Re: The Hydrogen Truck Problem Isn't the Truck

#36

Post by jMyles »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #35
tjmc wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking forward to seeing solid state batteries for aviation, but the scary part is that they get heavier when they discharge as oxygen from the air turns into solid oxide.

Isn't that good for aviation? Makes it relatively less expensive to carry reserve energy you don't expect to use, don't have to pay the weight cost during takeoff when weight costs the most energy because you just charged the battery and once you're at cruising speed more weight is just neutral momentum. Probably the least convenient thing would be if you had to land and take off again somewhere without recharging.

> Probably the least convenient thing would be if you had to land and take off again somewhere without recharging.

...or... go around?

Re: The Hydrogen Truck Problem Isn't the Truck

#37

Post by schainks »

akamaka wrote: post #11

This is a very poor analysis, since it doesn’t account for the capital costs. Even if hydrogen is inefficient compared to batteries, it could win if the upfront investment was low enough to offset the additional fuel cost. This is quite obvious, since that’s why diesel trucks are winning today — the upfront cost of a diesel engine is cheap enough that it offsets the higher lifetime fuel costs. I do think that batteri…

Show me how the capital costs of rolling out high PSI hydrogen infra will be cheaper than building a power grid. You can even refit and re-use existing natural gas pipelines to move hydrogen if you want to cheat. I am willing to bet the costs per kW will still be crazy, especially at last mile where you are in an area populated by humans.

I don't see a bright future for hydrogen in transport while we keep putting cheap solar, wind, and batteries on the grid / roads.

Re: The Hydrogen Truck Problem Isn't the Truck

#38

Post by AnthonyMouse »

Manuel_D wrote: post #24
nradov wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well we already have a lot of those, at least in North America (best freight rail system in the world), and it might make sense to build even more tracks in some areas. But rail will never be practical for time-sensitive cargo. It just takes too long to assemble a train and move cars through switching yards. We're always going to need a lot of trucks no matter what.

Nearly zero of the freight rail network in north America is electrified: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_electrification_in_th...

Sort of. The locomotives are diesel electric series hybrids. Which means you can make one that can travel anywhere that isn't electrified but add a pantograph to it for minimal additional cost and then stop burning diesel anywhere that is, and electrify the lines piecemeal.

Add a battery car and you only have to electrify a minority of the lines to be off diesel a majority of the time.

Extra points for electrifying steep grades.

Re: The Hydrogen Truck Problem Isn't the Truck

#39

Post by bloaf »

I'm not a fan of the way grey hydrogen was written off: That hydrogen is already being produced today by several different refinery processes, and then burned in a furnace because no one else wants it.

So the right way to handle the carbon accounting isn't to assume that all the CO2 produced by the refinery processes count against the hydrogen produced, but rather that the energy that refineries get from burning the hydrogen would be replaced by them burning natural gas instead.

The per-kg energy value of burning H2 is ~2.5x the value of natural gas (refineries generally use LHV for this accounting). But each kg of natural gas that gets burned produces ~2.8 kg of CO2 (because burning replaces the puny hydrogen with relatively larger oxygen atoms).

2.5*2.8 = 7kg of CO2 per kg of H2 taken out of the refinery. Which isn't as big a difference from the 10kg reported in the article as I expected when I set about writing this comment.

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