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Russia's economy has entered the death zone

economist.com

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Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#31

Post by phicoh »

chowells wrote: post #10
k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

As someone with no firsthand knowledge at all, I am inclined to believe your position is correct. But I also think the Economist is making an important point: Russia's continued prosecution of this war will shred their internal economy with consequences lasting for decades or centuries. What people often underestimate is just how much damage an economy can suffer before breaking down entirely. But Putin doesn't care…

The EU is rich enough to support Ukraine for a very long time. During that time it is likely that Ukraine develops better and better weapons. This requires Russian army to improve as well.

It's not clear how the Russian army will improve when the economy declines.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#32

Post by konart »

mdavid626 wrote: post #4

What is Europe/USA fueled by? Debt. The Bubble. Is that sustainable? I don’t think so. What’s the point of the article? To prove the west’s superiority?

I think you do not quite understand what debt is. Just like most people in our beloved Russia.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#33

Post by nosianu »

mdavid626 wrote: post #29
nosianu wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Debt That is the very basis of our currency, and the basic idea is a good one in an idea-heavy economy more reliant on innovation than natural resource constraints. Also, if truly becomes too much we will just have one of the many many currency changes. My grandparents lived with about five (could be as many as seven) currencies throughout their (German) lives, for example. As long as the real values remain, the fa…

So you say, that current debt levels are good?

I'm not sure why you ask me what I say. I left it as a written comment for you to peruse at any time and as many times as you want to see what I'm saying.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#34

Post by simonh »

k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

The article is not as unrealistic as that, the author does point out that Putin is not just looking at the state of Russia, he’s also looking at the relative state of Ukraine and its support from the West.

The death zone isn’t the point at which they die, it’s the point at which they are consuming their own long term strength and capacity to recover in order to sustain their effort .

To our utter shame, we have never actually committed to Ukrainian victory or Russian defeat, but merely to tenuous Ukrainian survival. I firmly believe this war would already be over, or effectively so, if Ukraine’s allies had spent what we have up till now in the first 2 years. Even from a cynical financial point of view it would have been the better policy.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#35

Post by squidbeak »

mdavid626 wrote: post #11
vondur wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is probably true, but if they are selling at a loss, it can only go on for so long.

Ukraine might have less time than Russia does. Russia only has to survive 1 day more.

Why do you imagine Ukraine's desire for sovereignty would be exhausted before Russia's stomach for economic hardship? Do you really think the Russia public has the stamina even for the 4 more years it will take them to capture the rest of Donbas?

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#36

Post by mdavid626 »

casenmgreen wrote: post #26
mdavid626 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it seems like that’s the propaganda. The free speech democratic West, instead of reporting about the objective truth, tells us half truths for their own benefit.

No. 1. News outlets look to sell stories - and so catchy headlines. Real value is optional. 2. I expect you could find a range of contrary views over the same time. I've read good analysis saying economy will just keep going. 3. Try going to Russia and see what you find in the way of half-truths or free speech.

I hope you’re not serious.

The point of media is not to sell stories. Even if it is, the stories should not be made-up, biased or distorted.

Just because in Russia it’s worse, it doesn’t mean we should keep our media shit.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#37

Post by ajross »

kergonath wrote: post #30
k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

It’s very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s military force, particularly a country as huge as Russia, which has also a sizeable population. Ukraine cannot do it on its own and I see no appetite from anybody else to do it, so I think it is unlikely to happen. Of course, it is also very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s economic power. Unfortunately, in Russia’s case, they have the raw materials and a pop…

That's misunderstanding the model of actors. "Russia" isn't "Putin". "Countries" act in the best interests of their power structure, not their leaders.

Basically: the way this ends is when the collective will of the power centers (generally the armed forces, though not always) decide that they'll be wealthier and happier with Putin gone than by following more orders.

And obviously that's an unstable/unpredictable equilibrium, because groups don't decide collectively like that and exactly how a coup works is never known until it does. But it's the way literally every other government of every other failed state has fallen[1], and there's no reason to think this one will fare any differently.

[1] Well, there's "unexpected death of the leader" thing too.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#38

Post by kaivi »

dyauspitr wrote: post #19

How does Russia have $73 billion dollars worth of debt. Who is buying Russian treasuries? Also how did the GDP grow by 1% in 2025, is that a function of the internal Defence spending activity?

> how did the GDP grow by 1% in 2025

Build tanks -> increase GDP

Send those tanks to burn with men inside -> increase GDP per capita

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#39

Post by tchalla »

phicoh wrote: post #31
chowells wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone with no firsthand knowledge at all, I am inclined to believe your position is correct. But I also think the Economist is making an important point: Russia's continued prosecution of this war will shred their internal economy with consequences lasting for decades or centuries. What people often underestimate is just how much damage an economy can suffer before breaking down entirely. But Putin doesn't care…

The EU is rich enough to support Ukraine for a very long time. During that time it is likely that Ukraine develops better and better weapons. This requires Russian army to improve as well. It's not clear how the Russian army will improve when the economy declines.

EU may be “rich enough” to support Ukraine forever, doesn’t mean it will or should do it.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#40

Post by mdavid626 »

squidbeak wrote: post #35
mdavid626 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine might have less time than Russia does. Russia only has to survive 1 day more.

Why do you imagine Ukraine's desire for sovereignty would be exhausted before Russia's stomach for economic hardship? Do you really think the Russia public has the stamina even for the 4 more years it will take them to capture the rest of Donbas?

Russia doesn’t have any other choice, than to continue.

Same applies for the West.

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