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Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

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Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

#31

Post by RankingMember »

AdamN wrote: post #25
philipallstar wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The people for whom this stuff isn't glaringly obvious, relatively early in life, will never get it How do you know this?

Yeah I hard disagree with their statement. I've come to observe with having kids (and also moving to Germany and seeing other kids shaped) that so so much is taught. There is a ton born into a kid but so many things like the ability to think critically about a problem is actually taught in primary school and early years education (kindergarten/kita/preschool). There might be some raw horsepower that some people have…

I concur with regard to critical thinking being a taught skill. My read is that parent's comment is possibly more of a vent about the type of person many of us have become more familiar with than we ever wanted to in the past decade or so of "post-truth" discourse- the virulent, intentional ignoramus. (We could write reams about what leads people to be this way, but in the interests of keeping short-form commentary short-form, I'll say that I think there are a confluence of causes :P).

Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

#32

Post by wat10000 »

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #17
chistev wrote: post #3

Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…

Doesn’t silent, invisible, intangible also apply to software? You can’t really tell a particular piece of hardware is running software by a direct physical measurement. You can only infer that indirectly.

Only in the same way that it applies to, say, a tree. You can never observe a tree directly. All you can do is infer it from the nerve signals coming from your retinas and touch receptors.

The point of the dragon in the garage isn't that you can't measure it directly. It's that you can't measure it at all. It has no observable effects at all. Software definitely has observable effects, as do trees and almost everything else that people accept as real.

Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

#33

Post by wat10000 »

qsera wrote: post #6
chistev wrote: post #3

Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…

The dragon in the room is the hidden qualifier for "undetectable by any means" is "that is currently known to humanity". That makes Carl Sagan's claim some what Balonish. Not sure why the smart Sagan fell for it.

Do you actually live your life with the idea that there might be a dragon in your garage that is undetectable by any means currently known to humanity? And maybe an elephant in the neighbor's, and a unicorn down the street?

Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

#34

Post by CGMthrowaway »

chistev wrote: post #3

Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…

The dragon is just a gauge. Gauge symmetry

Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

#35

Post by mothballed »

kitd wrote: post #29

- Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. - See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will. This is good advice IME. Get well acquainted (like REALLY well acquainted) with opposing viewpoints, such that you could argue them better th…

I've also found simply testing a hypothesis without reasoning about it can quite often outdo your own reasoning and the reasoning of everyone else. Sometimes you are wrong, and everyone else is wrong, and only an empirical test can separate the wheat from the chaff.

Although maybe this method only works for me because I am a moron, and many people can out reason me, so the only way I can discover anything is to do something all reasonable and rational people are already sure is wrong.

Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

#36

Post by kgwxd »

scns wrote: post #20

The article links to an article about Sagans' prediction of the decline of america. Strangely fitting nowadays. > I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one represen…

Sounds like he just read history, noticed repeating patterns, and believed his own eyes. It sucks that makes him some kind of special person, instead of "people" just being the kind of thing that commonly does stuff like that.

Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

#37

Post by projektfu »

RankingMember wrote: post #31
AdamN wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I hard disagree with their statement. I've come to observe with having kids (and also moving to Germany and seeing other kids shaped) that so so much is taught. There is a ton born into a kid but so many things like the ability to think critically about a problem is actually taught in primary school and early years education (kindergarten/kita/preschool). There might be some raw horsepower that some people have…

I concur with regard to critical thinking being a taught skill. My read is that parent's comment is possibly more of a vent about the type of person many of us have become more familiar with than we ever wanted to in the past decade or so of "post-truth" discourse- the virulent, intentional ignoramus. (We could write reams about what leads people to be this way, but in the interests of keeping short-form commentary s…

People who can assert both "Fauci was wrong about masks" and "Nobody really died from COVID" come to mind.

Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

#38

Post by mingus88 »

kgwxd wrote: post #18

The people for whom this stuff isn't glaringly obvious, relatively early in life, will never get it. Except, maybe, specific instances that directly affect them in a bad way. Switch "brands" and they'll be fooled again. They'll probably even double-down on it.

Spot on. I just finished reading the demon haunted world to my daughter. She’s 13 and we have been very concerned about her going on social media.

I framed it as being more important than ever to be skeptical of what you see. Everything online is fake in some way. Every picture is touched up at best, AI slop at worst. You need to question everything.

I honestly fear her generation is just cooked. They were forced into online learning during covid, have socialization issues, and are coming of age in an era of rampant disinformation and generated content that is too good to spot and designed to addict and influence.

Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

#39

Post by mingus88 »

jgalt212 wrote: post #26

In these fractious times, I think we're all very good at scrutinizing other side of the aisle, and not so good at self-reflection. As a committed centrist, I am very good at fairly scrutinizing everything. /s

You joke but you’d be amazed at the Reddit front page. It’s hard to tell anymore if the comments are even people, but I have noticed many fake posts of some Trump tweet he never actually made getting traction.

It’s so easy to verify his public statements. Did he really say that? Just go look.

Yet time and time again people get baited into rage mode. It’s more satisfying to post than it is to do 30 seconds of research.

Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)

#40

Post by jawilson2 »

kgwxd wrote: post #18

The people for whom this stuff isn't glaringly obvious, relatively early in life, will never get it. Except, maybe, specific instances that directly affect them in a bad way. Switch "brands" and they'll be fooled again. They'll probably even double-down on it.

Hard disagree. I grew up with parents who LOVED science; my earliest memories in the 80s are my mom checking out Cosmos from the library on VHS and binging it. It is a big reason I have an engineering PhD. At the same time, they were 60s hippies and into meditation woo-woo, as in "visualize a beam of light coming from your stomach and you can instantly travel to Jupiter!", being able to walk through walls because of quantum physics, etc. Tons of pseudoscience. So, I grew up in both worlds, while always somewhat skeptical of the woo, still was sort of in it through high school. I read Demon Haunted World in college, and the woo was eradicated overnight. I think part of this also has to do with PhD programs, particularly reviewing papers, where it is basically BS detection. But, DHW framed it spectacularly for me, and is one of the most influential books I have read.
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