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AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

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Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#31

Post by fangorn »

gdotdesign wrote: post #28
augusteo wrote: post #19

The tractor analogy keeps coming up in these threads, and I think it's actually more pessimistic than people realize. Tractors didn't just change farming. They emptied entire regions. What saved the people (not the communities) was that other industries absorbed them. Factory work, services, construction. The question for software isn't whether AI creates efficiency. It's whether there's somewhere else for displaced…

> The pessimistic one is that most of what needed building gets built, and the remaining work fits in fewer hands. I don't think that's true, mainly because if it were true it would have happened a long time ago. We will never settle on one version of a thing (let it be messaging, recipes, notes, image galleries, etc...). New variants emerge over time, the only thing AI does is accelerate this.

Let's hope you're right, but you might be underestimating the "$200 per month (robo)engineer can only do it like this, therefore this is the way to do it" factor.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#32

Post by SoftTalker »

elevatortrim wrote: post #24
augusteo wrote: post #19

The tractor analogy keeps coming up in these threads, and I think it's actually more pessimistic than people realize. Tractors didn't just change farming. They emptied entire regions. What saved the people (not the communities) was that other industries absorbed them. Factory work, services, construction. The question for software isn't whether AI creates efficiency. It's whether there's somewhere else for displaced…

What I do not understand is why is it that software engineers are so afraid? I have heard from so many other white collar people that AI already changed their job entirely (technical salesmen, translators, designers, government researchers, the list goes on), yet it is the software engineers that I hear the most noise from. Software engineering is one of the most intellectually demanding categories of white collar wo…

Tractors replaced farm hands, not farmers. Software developers are farm hands.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#33

Post by eranation »

I have several thoughts on this.

1. The common (and correct) claim that software engineering is not just about writing code (counter argument, with time, AI will be able to take on planning, debugging. Counter counter argument: if you ever tried just do what customers ask, you will get conflicting requirements, humans will need to help AI make decisions, not implement them)

2. Related to the above, as long as a good software engineer + AI brings more ROI than a mediocre engineer + AI that brings more ROI than a random person + AI that brings more ROI than just AI, it will be economically wise to hire more good engineers to beat your competitors who just opted to save money and fired their engineering team. Salaries might go down but for top talent, eg imagine an “AI whisperer” that can not be a 10x engineer but a 1000x because they know how to get the most out of Claud code / cursor. They will be paid accordingly.

3. Jevons paradox - perhaps making software ubiquitous, cheaper to make, will actually make software engineers in larger demand

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#34

Post by drivebyhooting »

paul7986 wrote: post #4

It reduces the amount of engineers needed. I'd say by half and web, graphic designers and front end developers coding the designs are really no longer needed. I was just laid off from my job of 8 years in which I was the UX Researcher, Designer, Front-End Dev and Customer UX Support. In a week I have sold my house and am downsizing significantly and in two years or less will be working as an RN(nurse). I will try to…

At the macro level shifting workers to RN makes complete sense. It is the coup de grâce of the boomer generations: tax the young’s earnings, cancel SS, force them to work as nurses.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#35

Post by jacquesm »

nomilk wrote: post #2

Interesting yc vid on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqwSb2hO1jE tl;dr it argues when there's a dramatic improvement in the efficiency of production of a good or service, its per-unit cost goes down so much that demand skyrockets, leading to greater demand for employees in that sector. The examples it gives are radiologists (after neural nets were predicted to be able to perform their jobs essentially for…

That argument is so broken it's not even funny. A lot of assumptions would have to hold for that particular outcome to be true. There are many more and most of those simply result in corporations employing fewer workers and having higher profits. I'm sure that the next argument you'd get is 'trickle down economics' but that doesn't work either.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#36

Post by [deleted] »

francisofascii wrote: post #17
paul7986 wrote: post #4

It reduces the amount of engineers needed. I'd say by half and web, graphic designers and front end developers coding the designs are really no longer needed. I was just laid off from my job of 8 years in which I was the UX Researcher, Designer, Front-End Dev and Customer UX Support. In a week I have sold my house and am downsizing significantly and in two years or less will be working as an RN(nurse). I will try to…

Sorry to hear your situation. As a full stack Dev, I miss the days of having a UX expert on the team. Now we are just expected to create something good enough. Also your question of will there be interfaces like today makes me more nervous than anything else.

[deleted]

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#38

Post by paul7986 »

drivebyhooting wrote: post #34
paul7986 wrote: post #4

It reduces the amount of engineers needed. I'd say by half and web, graphic designers and front end developers coding the designs are really no longer needed. I was just laid off from my job of 8 years in which I was the UX Researcher, Designer, Front-End Dev and Customer UX Support. In a week I have sold my house and am downsizing significantly and in two years or less will be working as an RN(nurse). I will try to…

At the macro level shifting workers to RN makes complete sense. It is the coup de grâce of the boomer generations: tax the young’s earnings, cancel SS, force them to work as nurses.

yeah and Im not young ... started my first web design job at 33 in 2009. I thought of going for pharmacy but that's too many years. Accelerated RN programs are 18 to 24 months.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#39

Post by Espressosaurus »

elevatortrim wrote: post #24
augusteo wrote: post #19

The tractor analogy keeps coming up in these threads, and I think it's actually more pessimistic than people realize. Tractors didn't just change farming. They emptied entire regions. What saved the people (not the communities) was that other industries absorbed them. Factory work, services, construction. The question for software isn't whether AI creates efficiency. It's whether there's somewhere else for displaced…

What I do not understand is why is it that software engineers are so afraid? I have heard from so many other white collar people that AI already changed their job entirely (technical salesmen, translators, designers, government researchers, the list goes on), yet it is the software engineers that I hear the most noise from. Software engineering is one of the most intellectually demanding categories of white collar wo…

Sampling bias.

You're on a site dominated by software engineers, in the field of software engineering, and likely have a lot of software engineer friends.

Translators got fucked, there's very little market for them compared now compared to decades past. Find their forums and I bet you'd have seen similar worry.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#40

Post by paul7986 »

reeredfdfdf wrote: post #16
paul7986 wrote: post #4

It reduces the amount of engineers needed. I'd say by half and web, graphic designers and front end developers coding the designs are really no longer needed. I was just laid off from my job of 8 years in which I was the UX Researcher, Designer, Front-End Dev and Customer UX Support. In a week I have sold my house and am downsizing significantly and in two years or less will be working as an RN(nurse). I will try to…

Voice is going to become more important, but I doubt it's going to be that much of a threat to websites. I can already ask Gemini in my last generation smart watch for latest news, but I much prefer reading them myself. IMO AI will be simply integrated to smart watches and phones. Maybe you'll also have more devices like Amazon Alexa at home, but I see no demand for an entirely new kind of a device/user interface. Th…

Sure but if Gemini starts just presenting the news and all the information either via text and or graphically from Android's locks screen ... going to websites become much less.
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