Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling • Hacker News Board

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#31

Post by dh2022 » Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 7:05 PM UTC

microtonal wrote: post #25

dh2022 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article’s point was not that Polymarket is the problem-the point is validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences.

Yeah, once it's on television, it is similar to polling, which can influence elections because people like to vote for the winner. However, in this case it's even worse, because someone with deep pockets can influence the predictions.

But polling is still scientific and harder to manipulate than the betting markets. All of this is covered in th article. You should read it-it is a good article.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#32

Post by Arainach » Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 7:06 PM UTC

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #23

dh2022 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article’s point was not that Polymarket is the problem-the point is validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences.

> the point is validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences. Coinbase Robinhood DraftKings FanDuel

Giving credence and advertisement to all of those has caused huge societal problems. Sports Betting is a huge problem.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#33

Post by microtonal » Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 7:06 PM UTC

networkadmin wrote: post #28

networkadmin wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The mercantile classes at first thought themselves exempt from the general misfortune. They were delighted at the apparent advance in the value of the goods upon their shelves. But they soon found that, as they increased prices to cover the inflation of currency and the risk from fluctuation and uncertainty, purchases became less in amount and payments less sure; a feeling of insecurity spread throughout the country…

"In this mania for yielding to present enjoyment rather than providing for future comfort were the seeds of new growths of wretchedness: luxury, senseless and extravagant, set in: this, too, spread as a fashion. To feed it, there came cheatery in the nation at large and corruption among officials and persons holding trusts. While men set such fashions in private and official business, women set fashions of extravagan…

What's the point of posting entire book fragments here?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#34

Post by valiant55 » Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 7:06 PM UTC

keiferski wrote: post #24

I’m increasingly convinced that the single most important concept to understand in the 21st century is Chesterton’s Fence: "Chesterton's fence" is the principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._K._Chesterton#Chesterton's_... Gambling isn’t a new problem, but apparently we thought it would turn out differently this…

The powers that be have always saught wealth. At some point they gained enough power to start usurping the law that was supposed to keep them in check.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#35

Post by koolba » Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 7:07 PM UTC

> A billionaire congressional candidate can’t just send a check to Quinnipiac University and suddenly find himself as the polling front-runner, but he can place enormous Polymarket bets on himself that move the odds in his favor.

Maybe not with a specific pollster depending on their scruples, but you can definitely pay to be part of the poll. And that’s the first step to getting any stats whatsoever.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#36

Post by margalabargala » Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #23

dh2022 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article’s point was not that Polymarket is the problem-the point is validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences.

> the point is validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences. Coinbase Robinhood DraftKings FanDuel

Yes, all of those are equally problematic.

Polymarket here is one example among the companies causing the problem. Legislation that addresses the problem should affect all the listed companies and more, not just Polymarket.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#37

Post by microtonal » Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC

dh2022 wrote: post #31

microtonal wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, once it's on television, it is similar to polling, which can influence elections because people like to vote for the winner. However, in this case it's even worse, because someone with deep pockets can influence the predictions.

But polling is still scientific and harder to manipulate than the betting markets. All of this is covered in th article. You should read it-it is a good article.

harder to manipulate than the betting markets.

Sorry, that was what I meant to imply with the second half of my comment. Still, in my country there have been debates about whether publishing polls shouldn't be forbidden n weeks or days before the election (currently publishing polls and campaigning is only forbidden on election day).

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#38

Post by bshaughn » Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC

AbstractH24 wrote: post #6

Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…

It gives people in power, wether it be the government or even an NBA ref, a vehicle to profit off of conflicts of interest / fixing games / etc...

Ive seen people point out White House press conferences do weird shit, like cut the conference 10 seconds before some polymarket prop bet of "how long will this press conference be".

Much more heinously, a few months ago right before one of Trumps asinine tariff announcements, someone took out a $300M BTC short position that was almost certainly from a WH insider.

I honestly don't care if someone loses all their money gambling, but the problem I have is how so many institutions are able to be undermined at a fundamental level do the existence of polymarket.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#39

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 7:09 PM UTC

networkadmin wrote: post #28

networkadmin wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The mercantile classes at first thought themselves exempt from the general misfortune. They were delighted at the apparent advance in the value of the goods upon their shelves. But they soon found that, as they increased prices to cover the inflation of currency and the risk from fluctuation and uncertainty, purchases became less in amount and payments less sure; a feeling of insecurity spread throughout the country…

"In this mania for yielding to present enjoyment rather than providing for future comfort were the seeds of new growths of wretchedness: luxury, senseless and extravagant, set in: this, too, spread as a fashion. To feed it, there came cheatery in the nation at large and corruption among officials and persons holding trusts. While men set such fashions in private and official business, women set fashions of extravagan…

[deleted]

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#40

Post by networkadmin » Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 7:09 PM UTC

microtonal wrote: post #33

networkadmin wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"In this mania for yielding to present enjoyment rather than providing for future comfort were the seeds of new growths of wretchedness: luxury, senseless and extravagant, set in: this, too, spread as a fashion. To feed it, there came cheatery in the nation at large and corruption among officials and persons holding trusts. While men set such fashions in private and official business, women set fashions of extravagan…

What's the point of posting entire book fragments here?

So that lazy people who form their worldview via a Quick Google Search, Wikipedia articles, and/or "news media" can actually have a chance to learn something real about the time they are living in.

It's like a dozen paragraphs, forming one complete argument. Is this too much material to take in all at once, in this brave new TLDR tomorrow?