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Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

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Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#31

> Look on the bright side, if they're turning to ads it likely means AGI is not on the horizon. Your job is safe! I like this quote from TFA :)

I stumbled upon this one as well, but I do not understand it really: Why is my job safe if Ads prove there is no AGI?

Because even if there would be AGI, they could (and would?) serve ads anyway?

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#32

I think ads will inevitably roll out across all tiers, even the expensive paid ones. Ad revenue isn't uniformly distributed across users, but rather heavily skewed towards the wealthiest users, exactly the users most able to purchase an ad-free experience. The users paying $20 or $200/month for premium tiers of ChatGPT are precisely the ones you don't want to exclude from generating ad revenue. Google realized this a…

> Google realized this a long time ago; there is no ad-free paid version of Google Search. well there is also no 200$/month Google Search subscription

That is exactly my point: there easily could be, but there isn't. Based on how many commenters on HN and similar sites bemoan how Google Search quality has precipitously declined and yearn for the Google of ~10 years ago, I think there'd be nontrivial demand for a $200/month ad-free Google with no-nonsense comprehensive results. Such a product does not exist because it would ultimately be a net loss for Google.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have no guarantee the API models won’t be tampered with to serve ads. I suspect ads (particularly on those models) will eventually be “native”: the models themselves will be subtly biased to promote advertisers’ interests, in a way that might be hard to distinguish from a genuinely helpful reply.

you mean the API response then will contain the Ad display code?

Or worse subtly integrate companies that pay them into the answers.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have no guarantee the API models won’t be tampered with to serve ads. I suspect ads (particularly on those models) will eventually be “native”: the models themselves will be subtly biased to promote advertisers’ interests, in a way that might be hard to distinguish from a genuinely helpful reply.

you mean the API response then will contain the Ad display code?

The generated text will contain advertisements.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#35
post #3

The pragmatic side of me wonders if there is any way to shape this inevitable future now so we might see a better outcome 20 years.

You can work on building LLMs that use less compute and run locally as well. There are some pretty good open models. They probably be made even more computationally efficient.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#36

> Look on the bright side, if they're turning to ads it likely means AGI is not on the horizon. Your job is safe! I like this quote from TFA :)

I stumbled upon this one as well, but I do not understand it really: Why is my job safe if Ads prove there is no AGI? Because even if there would be AGI, they could (and would?) serve ads anyway?

Yes, I don't understand it either. I think the opposite is true. If AGI happens and it becomes immensely successful, it would be the best medium to deliver ads and at the same time our jobs wouldn't be safe.

Perhaps the people who like that quote can elaborate why that quote makes sense and why they like it?

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kagi is a niche product at best, with revenue literally orders of magnitude lower than Google's.

Yes, but it is still a valid counterexample to: > I think ads will inevitably roll out across all tiers

I think they're saying it's inevitable for billion dollar capitalist companies. /not-s

And anyway, companies that just want to make a really good living doing what they love are lame. /s

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think ads will inevitably roll out across all tiers, even the expensive paid ones. The counter for this is that people hate being double-billed like this.

Counter-counterpoint: people pay exorbitant amounts of money for cable TV channels that still show ads. Even the premium channels (HBO et al.) implicitly show ads in the form of product placement, which incidentally is exactly how I think chatbots will show ads. Most users won't even consciously realize they're there.

Exactly. It'll provide you the how to when prompted, but also include product recommendations from paying companies.

How do I wash my windows? You can use window cleaner and a paper towel. Our recommendation is Windex, an S C Johnson product.

At first it'll annoy us, but eventually we will all get used to it.

Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kagi is a niche product at best, with revenue literally orders of magnitude lower than Google's.

Yes, but it is still a valid counterexample to: > I think ads will inevitably roll out across all tiers

It's really not, though. If a "valid counterexample" can be something with, say, one user, then I can make a "valid counterexample" to literally anything you choose, but that's meaningless.
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