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The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

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Re: The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

#31

Post by faust201 »

estimator7292 wrote: post #16
tim-tday wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Car manufacturing grinds to a halt. Remember what happened to auto prices in 2022? 10x that. New appliances cannot be manufactured. What dos the absolute absence of new durable goods do to the economy? There’s no new iPhone for five years. No new electronic hardware at all. What does Apple stock do? Own any index funds? Those tank too. Rinse and repeat Thinking of it as “affordable pcs” is exactly wrong which is actu…

A dishwasher with a WiFi chipset is not a durable good. Nor is a fridge with a touchscreen, an oven with Bluetooth. You know what is durable? The simple and straightforward electromechanical mechanisms we used for three centuries before integrated circuits. One can find plentiful examples of midcentury and older appliances still in service without major maintenance. It's tough to find a modern appliance in service fo…

The people with power and money (incl. most in HN) don't care.

Most of the rest are in state of apathy if they have enough time to think about earth.

Others are barely surviving.

Re: The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

#32

Post by AlotOfReading »

lproven wrote: post #29
nehal3m wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except everything that runs on electricity has a CPU nowadays; the world as it is cannot function without computing. Your bank, your (municipal) government, airplanes, ships, satellites, televisions, the cell network, cash registers, you get the picture. I realize the CPU's that requires won't implode on day one, but computing becoming unaffordable or even economically unfeasible will have disastrous knock on effects…

> Except everything that runs on electricity has a CPU nowadays This is true but it totally misses the real point. The point is that most "smart" devices could be perfectly functional and usable with a Z80 or a 6502 or some other simple 8-bit chip controlling them, if the code were kept very small and simple. The bigger point is that we in the modern Western world don't do this, because we've got lazy and it's easier…

Taiwan is also one of the world's major sources of passive components. They're not as irreplaceable there, but even devices without "tiny fast chips" would be affected by a war there.

Re: The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

#34

Post by poulpy123 »

Supermancho wrote: post #5

When nobody acted against Israel, China breathed a lot easier. I think the result affecting affordable CPUs will be the biggest concern for the next ~15 year window.

Nobody did anything about Israel because they have the backing of the US (and are quite powerful themselves). I do hope China's leaders are not so stupid they think the passivity about Palestine means they will have free hands over Taiwan.

Re: The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

#35

Post by poulpy123 »

nehal3m wrote: post #7
mjhay wrote: post #4

If a hot war pops off over Taiwan, affordable CPUs are going to be a ways down the list of my concerns

Except everything that runs on electricity has a CPU nowadays; the world as it is cannot function without computing. Your bank, your (municipal) government, airplanes, ships, satellites, televisions, the cell network, cash registers, you get the picture. I realize the CPU's that requires won't implode on day one, but computing becoming unaffordable or even economically unfeasible will have disastrous knock on effects…

Well if a US - China war starts, I don't think cell phones or cash registers will be very high on my priority list. Even it stays "reasonable" (just the US and China, no nuclear weapons), the effect on the world will be so bad that I may not be so concerned by the price of new shops or cars

Re: The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

#36

Post by poulpy123 »

Kim_Bruning wrote: post #14
mjhay wrote: post #4

If a hot war pops off over Taiwan, affordable CPUs are going to be a ways down the list of my concerns

I can see why they might not be on your personal list straight away, no. But I bet weapons, logistics, comand&control etc all do need them. So generals and admirals might start sweating just a little.

In this case it means a shorter war so it would be a net positive

Re: The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

#37

Post by Kim_Bruning »

poulpy123 wrote: post #36
Kim_Bruning wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see why they might not be on your personal list straight away, no. But I bet weapons, logistics, comand&control etc all do need them. So generals and admirals might start sweating just a little.

In this case it means a shorter war so it would be a net positive

You're leaving a lot unsaid!

Which (sides) is it a net positive for, are you thinking?

Re: The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

#38

Post by poulpy123 »

Kim_Bruning wrote: post #37
poulpy123 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this case it means a shorter war so it would be a net positive

You're leaving a lot unsaid! Which (sides) is it a net positive for, are you thinking?

The side that suffer from the war

Re: The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

#39

Post by Kim_Bruning »

poulpy123 wrote: post #38
Kim_Bruning wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're leaving a lot unsaid! Which (sides) is it a net positive for, are you thinking?

The side that suffer from the war

> The side that suffer from the war

By that logic the defender should always surrender the moment they're attacked, as that would be the most positive outcome.

Re: The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age

#40

Post by nehal3m »

throw-the-towel wrote: post #15
nehal3m wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except everything that runs on electricity has a CPU nowadays; the world as it is cannot function without computing. Your bank, your (municipal) government, airplanes, ships, satellites, televisions, the cell network, cash registers, you get the picture. I realize the CPU's that requires won't implode on day one, but computing becoming unaffordable or even economically unfeasible will have disastrous knock on effects…

(Sorry for the digression, but your username really does check out in a discussion about CPUs.)

Hah, I hadn't realized, but yes it does lol
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