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I find the S&P500 to be interesting as a demonstration for currency risk. Denoted in US, it went up ~18% or so. For me as an EUR investor, it went up just 4.6% when accounting for the loss of the USD. Comparing that to indicies that usually do not perform that well, Euro Stoxx 50 is up ~22% and MSCI Emerging Markets ~21%.
Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.
What is a good measure of meaningful growth? Genuinely asking. I imagine all measures have pros and cons.
https://energyforgrowth.org/article/watch-countries-climb-th...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What is a good measure of meaningful growth? Genuinely asking. I imagine all measures have pros and cons.
Infant mortality
Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.
People forgot or simply don’t realize how much worse life was just a couple of decades ago (in terms of nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water, material wealth).
Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.
What is a good measure of meaningful growth? Genuinely asking. I imagine all measures have pros and cons.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is an indicator and it's not totally non-meaningful. But GDP growth, when it's at the price of increasing the public debt and inflation, is no real growth. Instead of looking at the US, let's look at what used to be a relevant ally... In the eurozone, for example, politicians are hiding the lack of growth behind a growing mountain of public debt and the GDP growth ain't even beating inflation since the 2008 crisis…
US looks everything except being "less fucked" as eurozone. It is actively self destructing while mounting debt while, true, trying to destruct everyone else.
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I try to see it positive. With the AI bubble, I finally habe a tangible example to point to when I say that GDP growth is a bad indicator for economic success
Unless you can demonstrate that there is in fact an AI bubble, that is simply begging the question. Notice how the term “housing bubble” is used much less frequently today than 10 years ago? That’s because that so-called bubble has been ballooning in size for three decades now, and almost nobody still believes that it will “burst” in any meaningful sense. The Dotcom bubble was in many ways an outlier.
Housing is being propped up by the governments of the west because it was already so problematic if it fails that millions of people would be severely impacted.
Even the housing backed mortgage crisis of 2008 was as large a shock as the great depression, the reason we’re not all using money as toilet paper is due to government intervention. Rightly or wrongly. Some people believe that this intervention makes something worse bound to happen later- and based on the cost of housing I tend to believe them. It is not sustainable to keep housing at its current cost, and the financial model requires that they continue to increase in price. If house prices fall it is a disaster for millions.
Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.
What is a good measure of meaningful growth? Genuinely asking. I imagine all measures have pros and cons.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unless you can demonstrate that there is in fact an AI bubble, that is simply begging the question. Notice how the term “housing bubble” is used much less frequently today than 10 years ago? That’s because that so-called bubble has been ballooning in size for three decades now, and almost nobody still believes that it will “burst” in any meaningful sense. The Dotcom bubble was in many ways an outlier.
It is cause housing bubble was a thing of 2000 and burst in 2008 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_United_States_housing_bu... People dont talk about housing bubble as much, because it is history at this point. Not something that would go on now. And no, housing being expensive is not the same thing as a bubble. We dont have bubble in housing now.