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Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

theguardian.com

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Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#31

Post by 0cf8612b2e1e »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #28
thelastgallon wrote: post #9

What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?

> What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? In all likelihood? xAI buys Tesla. That’s the functional floor. > Would it take down the entire stock market with it No.

AI exuberance is ridiculous, but even xAI could not pony up enough real money to payout Tesla investors for anything but pennies on the dollar.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#32

Post by victorbjorklund »

everfrustrated wrote: post #8

I don't think people have quite realized Cybercab is also a hedge against vehicle sales dropping. Musk can keep the factory at high utilization by pumping out cabs at cost and start collecting rideshare income. Tesla just announced Cybercab is now in production.

How many billions in revenue did cybercab do in 2025 or is it just elons promises that are worth the same as his previous ones?

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#35

Post by josefritzishere »

breve wrote: post #23
languagehacker wrote: post #3

The Tesla board should just put a bumper sticker on Musk that said "I bought this before Elon went crazy". Like, how did you not know.

The board doesn't care. They got theirs: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/13/business/tesla-stock-sale... https://www.afr.com/technology/life-changing-wealth-stopped-...

Its such a shame. The right CEO could really turn that company around.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#36

Post by browningstreet »

sixQuarks wrote: post #19
bdangubic wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you wrote TSLA and reality in the same sentence :) people keep forgetting that TSLA is not a car company! they are AI and humanoid and robots and … company and as such worth 100x current eval :)

Solving autonomy is the hardest technical challenge right now, way harder than creating a frontier LLM AI. Tesla has basically solved it. So to argue sarcastically about Tesla is in my opinion being ignorant. I get the Elon hate, but he is usually correct in his predictions, albeit late

We have a pretty good idea of what products Apple is likely to release next year.

We no longer have an actual product roadmap of revenue viable product releases from Elon and Tesla. It’s just irrational market exuberance but all the products are being abandoned.

That isn’t really sustainable.

I drive a Y. I’ve said before that Elon was peak Elon when they released the 3/Y and he sent the Roadster into space. Everything since has been a grift of diminishing returns, in terms of reality and actual hardline income.

Grok and xAi are a thing but they mostly cost money right now. I kinda wonder if he isn’t irrationally energetic enough to get something interesting out of Macrohard but he can no longer iterate product releases to save his life.

My other long bet is that Google will win a big chunk of AI (because TPUs and frontier and other income and enterprise sales) and Elon will mostly succeed in outspending OpenAI and plundering their chances (save the magical odds of their Jony Ive bet delivering some kind of post-moat income autonomy). xAI and OpenAI will sink into the deep together.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#37

Post by Veliladon »

ckastner wrote: post #29
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? In all likelihood? xAI buys Tesla. That’s the functional floor. > Would it take down the entire stock market with it No.

How low could that floor be, in dollar terms? The financial engineering with the Twitter/X takeover was already pretty bold, but Tesla would probably still be a chunk an order of magnitude larger than that.

Given that xAI only has a few billion in cash on hand? Very fucking low. It'd bankrupt Elon before reaching that stage though.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#38

Post by fearmerchant »

neogodless wrote: post #13
thelastgallon wrote: post #9

What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?

I'm not sure how much of "the stock market" TSLA makes up, but at current valuation, it makes up 1.9% of VTI (so that's a good estimation). So it could blink out of existence and only take VTI down 2%. (2% is significant of course.) But more likely might be a slow erosion while other components grow, making index funds and "the entire stock market" quite resilient to such a shock.

It appears you're using a Vanguard total market fund. Nothing wrong with that, it's clearly broader than the SP500, but I suspect more folks are familiar with the latter. In that spirit folks might be interested to know it's not much different. If Tesla disappeared tomorrow with would be 2.4% of the SP500.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#39

Post by SR2Z »

josefritzishere wrote: post #33

For the life of me I do not understand why the board of directors doesnt remove Musk. Their decline has been very pronounced in 2025 and his antics are largely to blame.

The ridiculous valuation depends on him. Firing him would cause it to plummet back to earth.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#40

Post by Itoldmyselfso »

sixQuarks wrote: post #19
bdangubic wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you wrote TSLA and reality in the same sentence :) people keep forgetting that TSLA is not a car company! they are AI and humanoid and robots and … company and as such worth 100x current eval :)

Solving autonomy is the hardest technical challenge right now, way harder than creating a frontier LLM AI. Tesla has basically solved it. So to argue sarcastically about Tesla is in my opinion being ignorant. I get the Elon hate, but he is usually correct in his predictions, albeit late

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...
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